Just last week, anti-tax groups were claiming victory over Measure ER, which was trailing by about 6 percentage points and close to 80,000 votes, and it appeared the Los Angeles County initiative on the June 2 primary ballot was headed to defeat.
What a difference a week makes.
As of the sixth post-election night ballot tally on Monday, June 8, Measure ER had taken the lead — barely.
Measure ER, a half-percentage-point sales tax raise for healthcare services in L.A. County has leapfrogged ahead for the first time, with 50.4% of the votes in favor, and 49.7% of the votes against, according to semi-official returns released Monday evening. The for and against are separated by 13,004 votes.
Yes votes for Measure ER, which only needs 50% of the vote plus one for approval, have slowly gained day after day as more ballots — and in particular, ballots from Election Day or later — were counted. For example, by Sunday night, the measure had caught up and was practically in a tie, with the no votes ahead by a slim 11,500 votes.
Monday’s 24,004 vote swing shows the measure has the momentum. The L.A. County Registrar-Recorder estimated there are 148,100 ballots left to be counted. The Registrar has counted a total of 2,090,485 ballots for the primary election.
Canvassing continues Tuesday, Wednesday,Thursday and Friday. Next week, vote counts will take place Tuesday, June 16 and Thursday, June 18. Two final vote updates are scheduled for June 24 and June 26.
“As ballots are being counted after last week’s election, we are seeing promising trends in the votes. While we still do not know the final outcome of Measure ER, we have been encouraged as yes votes have been scoring high in every count since Wednesday,” said Teresa Eilers, Yes on ER campaign manager in a statement released Monday evening.
“As the results continue to come in, we see the gap narrowing significantly,” Eilers added.
Second District Supervisor Holly Mitchell, who led the effort for Measure ER, said she remains optimistic.
“Reaching over 50% is a promising indicator and shows how many voters understood what’s a stake and the necessity of Measure ER. We will wait to ensure that every vote is counted. I am hopeful,” Mitchell said.
Aidan Chao, chairman of the Los Angeles County Taxpayers Association who led the grass-roots campaign against the measure along with 22 cities in L.A County, pointed out the upward trend comes from later ballots, usually signaling Democrats and progressives.
“We are going to wait for the final count because there are still so many votes out there,” he said Monday night. “Everyone in the county realized that, once the progressive votes came in.”
He said the Yes on ER folks had predicted a much stronger win and that a victory by a slim margin would be a positive sign for his group and others who’ve said county residents are already taxed too much. “The fact that it is a razor thin margin means our fight is not over yet.”
The measure, placed on the ballot by the county Board of Supervisors, asks voters to support the sales tax increase to help stave off the effects of federal Medi-Cal cuts affecting county healthcare facilities. County officials said cuts from H.R. 1 (“Big, Beautiful Bill”) include the risk of shuttering some county clinics and hospitals.
If approved, it would raise $1 billion annually to pay for healthcare clinics, workers and nonprofit entities that provide healthcare services administered by L.A. County. It would increase L.A. County’s sales tax rate from 9.75% to 10.25%. Many cities with higher tax rates than that, will see their sales taxes rise to 11% or more should the measure win approval.
Supporters said the measure helps restore cuts approved by Congress and President Donald Trump in July that reduces L.A. County health care funding by $2.4 billion over the next three years, removes hundreds of thousands of low-income residents from federal health care coverage and reduces funding from county Department of Health Services and Department of Public Health for countywide medical services.
The effort, led by Mitchell, was also supported by a coalition of medical clinics, labor unions and physician groups.
The general sales tax increase puts money into the county’s general fund for five years and sunsets in October 2031.
The Board of Supervisors voted 4-1 to put the measure on the ballot, with an allocation plan that will move revenue primarily to nonprofit health care providers and county health departments and hospitals, but also to Planned Parenthood and city health care departments in Pasadena and Long Beach.