There are lots of very promising games coming up in the next few months, from GTA 6 to Control Resonant, and a reader has ranked their chances of being a smash hit or unfortunate flop.
The recent previews of upcoming games has further empathised how absolutely stacked the next few months are for games. It seems crazy that in order to avoid GTA 6, companies have instead opted to commit some kind of video game chicken by releasing all their flagship releases within days or weeks of each other.
It seems inevitable that some of these games are bound to be a commercial flop. It seems also possible, based on previews, that some of these games might also be in the running to win various accolades come awards season.
Here’s some of the games I have at least a passing interest in and whether I think they’ll do well both commercially and critically.
Star Wars Zero Company
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From my understanding, turn-based strategy games have been a tough sell recently. I’m not sure the Star Wars affiliation will be enough to buck the trend. However, it seems that previews for Zero Company have been complimentary and it will get good review scores. Also, releasing late August might give it enough distance to shine before the September/October pile-up. On the other hand, releasing the same day as the Netflix GTA 6 preview possibly isn’t the best thing for a game’s success.
My prediction is an outside shout for a Game of the Year nomination and a dead cert for a nod in the sub-categories, such as best sim game. I also think it’s nailed on to be half price by the new year.
Verdict: Critical hit, commercial flop
Control Resonant
I loved Control, also Alan Wake 2 was great and Remedy seemingly must do enough business to keeping producing games. Alan Wake 2 apparently recently passed 2 million units sold and is therefore now earning profit. However, I do worry somewhat for Control Resonant. On paper it’s an easier sell than Alan Wake 2. More action-orientated and somewhat more mainstream. But the release date seems foolish. It releases nine days after Wolverine on PlayStation 5, the same day as Silent Hill: Townfall, and one day before EA Sports FC 27.
This seems risky and although there’s probably a diehard contingent of fans for the Alan Wake/Control shared universe, Remedy is taking a risk and might be overlooked in favour of other titles, by players who might at quieter points in the year have otherwise taken a punt.
I do, though, think it will get very good reviews and I’ll go out on a limb and say it will earn a nomination for Game of the Year in the main category. I think it might be a game that people eventually take notice of and come to perhaps later in the year, after it’s nominated for awards and turns up on best of lists. I reckon it’ll be a slow start but recoup its budget in time. Surely nailed on for a significant discount in the new year also.
Verdict: Critical hit, commercial hit (in time)
Silent Hill: Townfall
As already mentioned, Silent Hill: Townfall comes out the same day as Control Resonant and you’d imagine they might be a bit of overlap between fans of both, being as both are a bit weird and horror adjacent. Perhaps they need to market it as a Barbenheimer type thing. Silent Control or Resonant: Townfall perhaps? [Barbenheimer was two diametrically opposite films, not two with a similar audience – GC]
Based on no real basis but my own gut feeling I get the impression that Silent Hill is a more well-known franchise and given that horror survival games are in short supply it’ll actually do well enough to turn a profit quicker than Control. It doesn’t hurt that Halloween will only be round the corner when it releases. The other question is whether it’ll be any good. Silent Hill has been on a roll recently and I’ll go out on a limb and say Townfall will continue the trend.
Verdict: Commercial and critical hit
Marvel’s Wolverine
On paper Marvel’s Wolverine is a surefire hit. The biggest Sony exclusive of the year and Insomniac have had great success with another Marvel property. However, Spider-Man, I think, has more mainstream appeal and is more likely to appeal to a bigger age demographic, given the gore and violence of Wolverine. Also, Marvel games other than Spider-Man haven’t fared well at all. I still think Wolverine will do well but I think it will struggle to hit the heights of Spider-Man and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a discount early next year.
From a critical perspective I think it’ll hit low to mid 80s on Metacritic, so not a failure but might not be what Sony and Insomniac expect.
Verdict: Commercial and critical hit (but perhaps not at the level of what is expected)
Star Wars: Galactic Racer
The second Star Wars game and I feel possibly the hardest to predict. The overall Star Wars franchise isn’t in the best of shape at the moment. That said, as Metro have pointed out, the most recent output in terms of games seem to have been the exception. And let’s face it, Star Wars is still surely a big draw.
Galactic Racer is releasing at such a busy time and only weeks before Call Of Duty and weeks after EA Sports FC. Then again, big budget racing games are usually very few and far between, so perhaps the petrolheads will show up to show support.
I’m impressed so far and think this will do well with critics too. Though I still think Forza Horizon 6 will retain its crown as best reviewed racer of the year. My prediction is a solid 88 Metacritic score.
Verdict: Critical hit and commercial hit (although I’m less confident)
Grand Theft Auto 6
Obviously GTA 6 is going to be a massive success both commercially and critically too. The question is to what extent. Will it outsell GTA 5, where will it rank on the list of best-selling games of all time? Likely these questions aren’t going to be answered until years down the line.
The critical and public reception on the other hand will be much more immediate. The reception from the community could be interesting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some review bombing in response to some of the unpopular decisions Rockstar have made, such as the Netflix deal and a digital-only release. On the other side of the fence, there’ll be some fans who for them GTA 6 will be like the second coming and even the mildest of criticism will be treason.
No matter how good GTA 6 is I can’t see how it can live up to the hype. That said, I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’ll earn a 94 on Metacritic and sweep up come awards season.
Verdict: Biggest commercial and critical hit of the year
There’s my take on which games might flop and what the critical consensus might be. If people agree and I’m right, then you may laud me as a video game Nostradamus. However, more likely I am wrong and my opinions are treated with scorn and you can mock me in the comments.
By reader Dirtystopout
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