LAS VEGAS — I had noticed the South Point sportsbook’s proposition, regarding the college football conference to win this season’s national title, soon after those odds appeared Aug. 4.
For several weeks, I scooted around town, going about my usual edge-seeking business, but an angle on that prop kept appearing on the bright tote board in the recesses of my noggin.
The Big Ten, +140. (Or risk $100 to win $140.)
Who won it all two years ago? Michigan. Last season? Ohio State. I kept pondering how that prop also includes always-formidable Oregon and Penn State, forecasted to be elite in 2024-25.
Plus, USC. Mailman Phil, a pal who follows the Trojans religiously, noted how fourth-year coach Lincoln Riley hired a new strength coach, Trumain Carroll from Kansas State, to bolster both lines.
Those anchors, Phil said after USC had destroyed Missouri State, 73-13, are finally Big Ten-caliber, each having put on at least 15 pounds of muscle.
Finally, on Aug. 26, I zipped to the South Point with intent, hoping to grab the Big Ten, at +140, for a few more lira than I usually invest; it was right there, waiting for me.
Regular readers know the futures game is my main sports-betting tack, and that Big Ten ticket is the jewel of my college football portfolio. By Sept. 1, the property had sliced the Big Ten to +120.
South Point book director Chris Andrews said Riley “needed to” make changes. “I have USC a lot higher than everybody else,” Andrews said. “I have the Trojans in my Top 10. Someone said, ‘Really?’
“Yeah, I think they’re gonna be really good. It’s a long season, and they’ll have a tough schedule; but everybody does in the Big Ten.”
Bayou Bengals at State College?
A day after its second consecutive blowout victory (and big cover), this time 59-20 over Georgia Southern, USC didn’t even appear in the AP Top 25, yet Andrews had the Trojans in his top 10 going into that game.
According to TeamRankings.com power ratings, my Big Ten ticket includes No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 5 Penn State, No. 6 USC, No. 15 Nebraska, No. 17 Illinois and No. 25 Indiana.
Andrews hails from the Pittsburgh area and is an unabashed Penn State supporter and Big Ten honk. Forever, he wanted a playoff system that would force SEC teams to play in the inclement Midwest.
Last season, the new 12-team playoff kind of arranged that, with Tennessee going to Ohio State, and the ACC’s SMU playing at Penn State. The Buckeyes (42-17) and Nittany Lions (38-10) won in routs.
Not exactly Georgia in Ann Arbor or LSU at State College, but maybe those are on the horizon.
“For many years, the Big Ten recruited and coached to win in the Big Ten, and that includes in November,” Andrews said of cold, rain and snow.
“Now, for the SEC, they’re playing in mostly good weather. It might get into the 40s, but usually it’s pretty decent.”
He does believe the SEC is the top football league, and South Point patrons have established it as the +110 title favorite.
Andrews said the conference “stacks the deck” with scheduling, but that altered last month when legislation passed for the SEC to play a ninth league game come 2026.
Plus, at least one of each team’s non-league schedule must include a Power 4 foe.
Andrews said, “It’s about time.”
Football weather
How Bill Belichick dealt with weather is at least one aspect of Andrews’ respect for the coach who guided New England to six Super Bowl victories.
“Look at his great New England teams,” Andrews said. “One of the things Beli-
chick did was practice outside. Is it raining? Windy? ‘Suck it up. We’ll go practice outside.’ His team was a great bad-weather team.
“Yeah, we might have weather. Suck it up.”
He likes that in the Big Ten and Notre Dame, “they’re playing football close to the way the pros play football.”
Andrews also mentioned Super Bowl
XLVIII being staged at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, on Feb. 2, 2015, “which I thought was great,” he said.
Seattle belted Denver 43-8. However, East Rutherford experienced an unusually mild 49 degrees at kickoff.
Now, if only ’Bama gets sent to Notre Dame in a near-future playoff, or Ole Miss to Columbus, when the games will matter most.
“I’ve been saying that for years,” Andrews said. “Go into Columbus or Penn State or the Big House or Notre Dame, go up there in December and let’s see how you do.”
I peg Ohio State and Penn State to play for the national championship in Atlanta on Jan. 20, 2026, clinching that ticket’s payoff.
It might be their third meeting, since they play in Columbus on Nov. 1 and could joust for the Big Ten title. However, Andrews isn’t so brash.
“As long as Penn State is in,” he said, “I don’t care who the other team is.”
On Monday, I returned to the South Point to conduct my usual pre-week numbers-crunching routine when I checked that conference prop on a kiosk.
Influenced, no doubt, by recent waves of wagers on the ACC (Clemson, Florida State and Miami) and SEC (LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss), the Big Ten had ballooned back up to +150, so I plucked out the wallet.
And invested more in the Big Ten.