Amazon’s AI success sends stock racing toward $3 trillion club

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2 hours ago

By Ryan Vlastelica, Bloomberg

Investors are growing increasingly optimistic about Amazon.com Inc.’s position in artificial intelligence, lighting a fire under the stock and sending the company’s market capitalization soaring toward the rarefied $3 trillion level.

“We have a lot of confidence that Amazon’s AI strategy is working, and that it will continue to pay dividends in the form of strong growth over the coming years,” said Stephen Lee, founding principal at Logan Capital Management, which owns Amazon shares.

The stock has been on a tear since bottoming on March 27, with its 36% gain in that span making it the fourth-largest point contributor to the S&P 500 Index, accounting for 7.4% of the benchmark’s 17% advance through Wednesday’s close, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Amazon’s 27% leap in April marked its best month since 2007.

The stock dipped 0.3% on Thursday.

The cloud-computing and e-commerce giant has a market value of $2.9 trillion after adding $432 billion this year. If the rally goes a bit further, it will join Nvidia Corp., Alphabet Inc., Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. in the exclusive group of companies that are worth more than $3 trillion.

Amazon’s resurgence comes after an extended period of underperformance. The stock is up 65% over the past five years, well below the 121% jump by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index in that time and even falling short of the S&P 500’s 79% gain.

The rebound reflects investor’s rising confidence that Amazon has multiple paths to succeed with AI. Its latest results showed the fastest quarterly sales growth for its Amazon Web Services cloud-computing business in more than three years, a sign that AI demand continues to be robust. In addition, Amazon said it has “over $225 billion in revenue commitments” for its Trainium custom AI chips.

“AWS is showing great growth, and the demand for its bespoke chips is not only positive for revenue but suggests it could gain some independence on its compute costs, which would represent a real price advantage,” Lee said.

These developments are helping to justify the heavy spending Amazon is continuing to make in developing AI, which is important as investors sell shares of big AI spenders with more questionable outcomes, like Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc.

‘Compelling Combination’

“All of Amazon’s businesses feed into each other, and being good at AI will not only help with AWS, but mean massive advantages for logistics and ad targeting at its e-commerce business,” Lee said. “It should be a significant winner of both the AI infrastructure buildout, as well as a significant winner of AI usage, and that’s a very compelling combination.”

Amazon’s AI investments are working out too. One of its biggest positions is in Anthropic PBC, which is reportedly in talks to raise new capital at a valuation of more than $900 billion. And in February, it agreed to invest $50 billion in OpenAI alongside a commitment for the ChatGPT maker to spend $100 billion on AWS over the next eight years.

As a result of all this, Wall Street is growing more confident about Amazon. Of the 83 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who follow the company, 79 have buy ratings and none have sells. That’s the highest percentage of buys among megacap stocks. The average price target of $313 anticipates a 16% gain over the next 12 months.

The consensus estimate for Amazon’s 2026 earnings per share has risen by 14% over the past month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and its revenue projection has also moved higher. The increases are making the shares look relatively cheap at less than 25 times estimated earnings, a significant discount to their 10-year average of 46. In late March, the multiple fell to its lowest since late 2008.

However, not everyone is sold on the stock’s prospects from here, especially as long as Amazon continues to spend aggressively on AI. The company has the highest 2026 capex projection in the S&P 500, nearing $200 billion. And that figure is expected to balloon to $226 billion in 2027.

“There are still huge question marks around what return it will get on all this AI spending,” said Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet. “There could be an upside cap on the multiple so long as the capex story continues, because it will no longer have the same margins it enjoyed when it as a big cash-flow generator.”

Although Facet owns Amazon shares, Graff described himself as skeptical and said the stock has an underweight rating in the firm’s portfolios.

“Ultimately I see more scenarios where it underperforms rather than outperforms,” he said. “There is a lot that would have to go right, and in a world where I’m trying to balance risk and reward, I just see more risk here.”

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