The biggest gamble in modern UK politics has paid off. Andy Burnham has won in Makerfield, and now has a seat in Parliament.
It’s worth remembering this was never a guaranteed result: when Josh Simons announced he was stepping down as the constituency MP to make way for the Mayor of Greater Manchester last month, just one week had passed since Reform won big in the area’s local elections.
No doubt, the nightmare scenario has been playing out in Labour minds for the past five weeks.
If Burnham was to lose to Reform, it would effectively have demonstrated there is no way back for the party. Its brand was so irredeemably tainted that it failed the most popular politician in the country, even as he made clear his desire to overthrow the unpopular leader.
That did not happen. Instead, their candidate showed there is a way back from the polling doldrums, and maybe – just maybe – a Reform government led by Nigel Farage isn’t an inevitability.
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So, don’t underestimate the monumental sigh of relief that emanated from the counting hall in Wigan’s The Edge venue and the party HQ on London’s Rushworth Street this morning – perhaps even from backers of Sir Keir Starmer.
But as I wrote earlier this week, the result in Makerfield represents the end of just one little narrative thread from the dramatic week that followed the local elections last month.
We’re about to learn what happens next.
Burnham and his team will have been planning his initial moves ever since this by-election was secured. He will sit down with Starmer this weekend, and that chat will likely involve the ex-Mayor gently suggesting the PM set out a timetable for his departure.
We still don’t know how Starmer will play this. Of course, he’s been saying for weeks that he will fight any leadership contest – but what else could he possibly say? What if he committed to a handover… then Burnham lost?
However, all signs point towards a stubborn PM insisting he has a five-year mandate to serve the country and a duty to provide stability. It may be a tough job to convince him otherwise.
Which is where Burnham’s allies in the Cabinet will come in. Top ministers like Ed Miliband and Lisa Nandy may tell Starmer they can’t continue to serve in his government if he’s going to cling on.
Things could get messy over the next week.
In the meantime, the battle to replace Burnham as Mayor of Greater Manchester kicks off.
This could prove to be the first big electoral test for a Labour Party that, it is now widely assumed, will soon be led by the now-former Mayor.
Will Mancunians and those in the towns and villages surrounding the city signal they still have faith in the party without Burnham as its candidate? There’s been chat of them running a big name like Gary Neville to grab attention – but the ex-Man United star has apparently ruled that out.
The mayoralty would be a major prize for Reform, who will throw everything they can at it in an effort to dampen Labour’s zeal after this morning’s result.
However, the Green Party was the big winner at the city’s local elections last month, bagging 18 seats as Labour lost 24. There’s every chance Manchester will face a three-horse race for the position.
Interestingly, this election will take place under a different voting system to the one used to elect Burnham in 2024. The supplementary vote (SV) system takes into account ranked preferences, which might make it more difficult for Reform to clinch it.
All of the above is a long way of delivering a simple message: if you were thinking today’s result would represent the high-water mark for political drama this summer, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
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