The Bears are in a unique situation in which general manager Ryan Poles has been building the roster for four years, so it should be ready to contend by now, yet new coach Ben Johnson is just at the onset of putting his fingerprints on the organization.
It’s a problem of their own making by sticking with former coach Matt Eberflus too long and exacerbated by painful personnel missteps, but the reality is the Bears aren’t ready yet. Anyone can see that, and even with a 4-2 start, they still have the 20th-best odds to win the championship.
The Ravens, meanwhile, have long been put together. They’re struggling at 1-5 and allowing the most points in the NFL at 32.3 per game going into the Bears visit to Baltimore on Sunday, but they’ve got all the right pieces to turn it around, starting with the right coach and quarterback in John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson, respectively, and rounding out with stars in running back Derrick Henry, linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton.
When the Bears run up against opponents like that, as well as the Packers, 49ers and defending champion Eagles, it’ll be quite an upset to beat them. They’re unlikely to vault into that tier so quickly, and the first season under Johnson is more about pointing them in the right direction for the long run.
“When we have our process right with how we come into the building throughout the week, how we’re meeting, how we’re walking through and how we’re practicing, that’s what gives us a chance on game day,” Johnson said. “It doesn’t mean we’re going to win, but we’re going to give ourselves a shot. I feel good about how we’re improving in that department each week. It continues to get better.”
If the Bears can win along the way and sneak into the playoffs, all the better.
At this stage in Poles’ rebuild, as well as with quarterback Caleb Williams no longer being a rookie, the Bears are in the NFL’s middle class. They’re not in a total teardown like the Jets and Saints, but they’re well behind Super Bowl contenders in the Packers and Lions in their own division.
That’s a realistic view of where they stand, so it should be accompanied by realistic expectations. The Bears should handle bad teams as they did the Saints and Raiders, show themselves to be on equal footing with teams in their tier like the Commanders and — at minimum — give heavyweights like the Ravens the fight of their lives and at least have a chance at toppling them.
A road win over the Ravens would be a tremendous statement, but a loss wouldn’t be the end of the world — as long as it’s not a debacle like the 52-21 embarrassment the Bears suffered in Detroit.
Johnson, of course, would never concede something like that.
“The mission’s always been to win and to win now,” he said, echoing his comments when the Bears introduced him in January. “That’s the end-all, be-all… I don’t see this as a team in transition. We have a chance to put a stamp on what this chapter of Chicago Bears history is going to look like.”
Regardless of the result, Johnson’s team must show progress. Most of all, that means Williams must be sharp. It’s also imperative that the Bears eliminate sloppy penalties, defend reasonably well despite missing several key players and generally hold their own.
After their trip to Baltimore, they have winnable games against the Bengals (3-4), Giants (2-5) and Vikings (3-4) before a tough stretch against the Steelers (4-2), Eagles (5-2) and Packers (4-1-1). They get the Browns (2-5) before finishing against the Packers, 49ers (5-2) and Lions (5-2).
If they keep climbing, there are enough possible wins in there to threaten for a playoff berth, and that would be the best of both worlds.