Going into this season, the brutal homestretch was supposed to be about rookie quarterback Caleb Williams reaching his cruising altitude and lifting the Bears into the playoffs.
Instead, these last five games are about something entirely different.
At 4-8 going into their game Sunday at the 49ers, the Bears are closer to a top-10 draft pick than they are a postseason berth. Their dreams fizzled a while ago, but there’s still a lot on the line.
The remaining five games, during which the Bears face the 49ers, Vikings, Lions, Seahawks and Packers, are an important runway into next season. General manager Ryan Poles is doing preliminary work on a coaching search after firing Matt Eberflus, and meanwhile, he needs to find some answers.
Williams is the spark for any hope the Bears have of rising out of mediocrity, and it’s crucial he burns brightly over the final five games. He is pointed the right direction after putting up strong numbers — 64.1 completion percentage, 275.7 yards passing per game, five touchdown passes, no turnovers and a 99.2 passer rating, plus 142 yards rushing at 7.5 per carry — over the last three games against the Packers, Vikings and Lions.
The 49ers had an elite defense when they went to the Super Bowl last season, but it has tapered off because of injuries. They present a more modest challenge for Williams now and rank 24th in points allowed (24.6 per game), but still seventh in opponent passer rating (84.2).
Beyond Williams, Poles must assess which pieces around him are keepers. That ranges from interim coach Thomas Brown to the interior lines on both sides of the ball.
The offensive line has allowed 49 sacks (second-most) and led a ground game that has averaged 4.2 yards per carry (12th-fewest). The defense is 16th with 30 sacks and is giving up 4.9 yards per rush (third-most).
Poles drafted right tackle Darnell Wright 10th overall last year, and he looks like the only offensive lineman with a guaranteed spot going forward — and he might even move to left tackle.
They haven’t seen enough of third-round pick Kiran Amegadjie at tackle to gauge his dependability, and injury concerns continue with left guard Teven Jenkins.
Pass rusher Montez Sweat is a star and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter looks good, but the Bears need to add complementary talent at both of their positions.
Poles also must decide on pending free agents Jenkins and wide receiver Keenan Allen and contract extensions for cornerback Kyler Gordon and safety Jaquan Brisker.
He’ll have $82 million in salary-cap space according to Over The Cap, and high draft picks currently slotted at Nos. 11, 40 and 42. The next five games should clarify how to use those resources.
The entire coaching staff might get overhauled, too. Depending on what the Bears do at head coach, it’s possible not a single coach who currently has an office at Halas Hall will have one next season.
The favorites are Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and Commanders coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, but Brown is a rising star and can put himself on their level in this five-game audition.
Johnson and Kingsbury almost certainly will have options, and Brown might, too. There are three vacancies now and perhaps another six on the way.
So these last five games are not only pivotal for Poles as he tries to get the Bears primed for a breakthrough next season, but they’re essential in making this job irresistible to elite candidates. Team president Kevin Warren made a big claim that this “will be the most coveted job in the NFL,” but that’s not necessarily true after the slapdash Eberflus firing reinforced the Bears’ reputation for dysfunction.
A strong finish, particularly by Williams, and a clear plan for the roster this offseason will help tilt the organization closer to where it imagines itself being.