The best fourth-quarter team in the NFL isn’t going to start thinking about the playoffs until the fourth quarter of the season.
‘‘Once we make it through the three-quarter mark, then we’ll start shifting our focus,’’ Bears head coach Ben Johnson said Monday. ‘‘We’re in a good spot right now for where we want to be.’’
That spot, amazingly, is the third seed in the NFC playoffs if the season were to end today. The Bears probably won’t stay there, but that’s no reason to discount their chances to earn one of the seven playoff spots in the conference.
The Bears’ postseason viability is an intriguing, unexpected debate — the Sun-Times’ Jason Lieser argues they won’t make it — but the facts lean in favor of them reaching their first playoff game since the 2020 season. Here are three reasons why:
Williams’ upside
The Bears rank eighth in the NFL in scoring, and they’re doing it without quarterback Caleb Williams being dominant. Each of the seven teams ahead of them in points has a quarterback among the top 10 in passer rating; Williams is 20th.
Five of the six best NFC teams in terms of yards per carry made the playoffs last season. The Bears rank second in the NFC in that category this season.
Adding an improved aerial attack to a killer ground game is the fastest way to turn one of the best offenses in the league into a juggernaut.
‘‘We’re at [roughly] the halfway mark of the season . . . [and] we haven’t scratched the surface of how talented, how special we are on this side of the ball,’’ Williams said Sunday. ‘‘I’m excited to show it. I’m excited to showcase it.
‘‘I think that’s coming up. You get little glimpses of it throughout games and throughout the season so far, but it’s coming.’’
Take it away
The Bears’ defense isn’t dominant, but it fits the profile for a playoff team.
The Bears led the league in takeaways in 2018 and are doing the same this season. Since 2018, the NFC’s best team in terms of forcing turnovers has reached the postseason all but once.
The Bears are all but certain to finish near the top of the NFC in takeaways. They have 22, four more than the next-closest NFC team, the Rams. The Bucs are the only other NFC team with more than 13.
The Bears expect to get linebacker T.J. Edwards and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon — maybe their three best defensive players — back from injury in December. As flawed as the defense has been all season, that might be enough to help them win games — albeit high-scoring ones — and make the playoffs.
They’re middle class — and that’s enough
To butcher a Bill Parcells line, the Bears aren’t what their record says they are. One metric considers them the NFL’s worst 7-3 team since the 1986 Chiefs.
That doesn’t mean they’ll miss the playoffs, however. In fact, they’re minus-150 to get in, according to most Las Vegas lines. The reason: The NFC has one excellent team — the defending champion Eagles, who haven’t lost since Oct. 9 — and a wide middle class.
The Lions, who were thought to be the best team in the NFC North, have lost three of their last five games. The Packers just won to snap a two-game skid.
The Bears will play five games against NFC playoff contenders down the stretch. They’ll hope the NFC West contenders — the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers — cannibalize each other along the way.
Entering the Monday night game, there were eight NFC teams with a 25% or better chance to make the playoffs. Only one will get left out of the postseason.
The Bears don’t need to be the best team down the stretch, then; they just can’t be the worst.
