The Bears are firmly in the playoff field after beating the Vikings to get to 7-3, and for a team that has been decisively out of the picture by mid-November each of the last four seasons, that’s a big step. The question, though, is whether they can stay there to the end.
“Guys, we’re midseason right now, so we’re not even looking at that,” coach Ben Johnson said. “We’ve earned seven wins so far.”
That’s refreshingly realistic after two years ago predecessor Matt Eberflus tried to sell hope on his way to a 2-7 start. Johnson helped lift the Lions from the bottom of the NFC North to Super Bowl contention, so he knows exactly how hard that journey is.
The Bears’ playoff viability is one of the NFL’s most riveting debates, and my colleague Patrick Finley made the case that they’ll make it, but a postseason run still feels a year away to me. ESPN’s metrics give the Bears a 57% shot and NFL Next Gen Stats put it at 59%, so it’s basically a coin flip.
Here’s what will decide it:
Tough sledding
The good news for the Bears — and for those tuning in to their games the rest of the season — is that they’ll have direct opportunities to earn where they end up. Their schedule gets much tougher from here, tied with the Packers for the hardest the rest of the way, with the Browns their only remaining opponent with a losing record. They’ll get to fight it out with the Packers (twice), Lions and 49ers, who are all scrapping for playoff spots.
That’s a much tougher path than what got them to 7-3. All seven teams the Bears have beaten so far — most in narrow escapes — are in the bottom 13 in the NFL.
It’s still progress, and shouldn’t be dismissed. The goal has been to turn the team in the right direction and lay the groundwork for Johnson to build them into a perennial contender. There’s plenty of evidence that’s happening, regardless of whether they make the playoffs this season.
Defensive concerns
Before even looking at their opponents, the Bears have to solve some of their own issues, particularly on defense. Even after playing one of its best games of the season Sunday to beat the Vikings, the defense ranks 27th overall, 26th in points allowed, 29th in yards per carry allowed and 20th in opponent passer rating. The Bears also are tied for the 10th-fewest sacks with 21.
It’ll be tough to keep winning if that doesn’t change. Six of the remaining games are against teams in the top half of the NFL in scoring.
The anticipated returns of linebacker T.J. Edwards and cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon will help if they’re healthy enough to play like they typically have. However, it’s hard to know if that will be enough to redirect the Bears defensively.
Musical chairs
There’s both good and bad news for the Bears in the current playoff picture.
Ignoring the Panthers, the pool is down to eight teams for seven spots in the NFC — but the other seven teams are all strong. It’s hard to pin down one the Bears would be able to box out. In fact, of all eight teams, the Bears’ probability of reaching the postseason is the lowest.
The Lions are on the outside for now, with ESPN still giving them a 72% chance to make the playoffs. They have reason to be confident, even at 6-4.
The Packers are the favorite to win the division at 45% and have an 80% chance to make the postseason. They and the Lions have dominated the Bears for a while.
The Eagles and the Rams have established themselves as Super Bowl contenders. The Buccaneers are irrelevant because they can win the NFC South.
That leaves the Seahawks (7-3) and 49ers (7-4) for the Bears to try to displace. Both of those teams seem like they’re at least a step ahead.
