Merely by the Bears getting to 7-3 and giving themselves a chance at the playoffs, regardless of how it turns out, they’ve unlocked a valuable phase in quarterback Caleb Williams’ development. Every game the rest of this season will be high stakes as the team tries to get back to the postseason for the first time in five years.
It’s a world of difference from last season and another reminder of how watered down his rookie experience was.
This time last year, the Bears had lost four in a row and already fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron as they tumbled toward what would eventually be a 10-game losing streak. There was no living and dying with each game as the defeats piled up.
In the same way that there’s no simulating game play in practice, there’s no simulating the feel of a playoff chase in meaningless games. This is big-time football. It’s another level. And that pressure will be a good thing for Williams, who already has shown capacity to handle it with his late-game heroics.
As he took stock of the Bears’ position heading into their game Sunday against the Steelers, he simultaneously understood how much will be on the line each week as well as how important it is that he stays steady.
“We feel good with where we’re at, but you also do understand that… things can still turn fast,” Williams said. “It’s us understanding where we’re at, understanding where we can be and focusing on where we are at this moment.”
At this moment, the Bears are riding high on momentum and staring down the doubters. They’re in first place in the NFC North, holding the No. 3 seed in the NFC — and the odds-on favorite to let it slip. The ESPN, NFL Next Gen Stats and the New York Times playoff models put their chances of making it between 47 and 59%, with each putting seven teams ahead of them in probability.
The Lions, for example, sit eighth in the NFC at 6-4, but have a 71% chance or better in all three predictors.
That’s too much for Williams to think about right now. One of the precious few lessons he could’ve absorbed last season, when the Bears seemed to be celebrating their success before they even got started, was to resist getting ahead of himself.
“I don’t ever flip into this [being] a higher stakes game than another,” he said. “You start falling into that trap and you start looking at records… then you start getting distracted with where you want to go.
“I’ve learned that being here but also a little bit earlier in my career in college. [I’m] solely focused on being 1-0 this week and not adding or subtracting any pressure from any game… Each and every game means the world for that week.”
A stretch like this where the Bears will play seven important games, six of them against teams currently with a winning record, gives Williams a great opportunity to step up. Some of the best quarterbacks in recent history got a taste of the playoffs in their first two seasons, including Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson playing in Super Bowls.
It also is a necessary measuring tool for the Bears.
They’re halfway to needing to make a decision on Williams’ future. At the end of next season, it’s time to exercise the team option for 2028, sign him to a long-term contract extension or do nothing and let him play out his rookie deal.
Numerous factors will go into that, and it’s still more than a year away, but the way he performs in this playoff race and, perhaps, the playoffs themselves, will be part of the equation.
Williams has had 10 games and about 10 months with Ben Johnson as coach, and it’s time to show substantive progress. He has been up and down this season, though the high points have been spectacular at the end of games, and the Bears need him to level out.
If he can take a step forward in these circumstances, it not only would accelerate his growth, but it would make a convincing case to the franchise that it has its quarterback of the future.
