The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The walls are closing on the Big 12 like the trash compactor scene in Star Wars.
At stake: two bids to the College Football Playoff.
The conference will send its champion to the CFP, but the likelihood of an at-large berth, which once seemed within reasonable reach, is increasingly remote as results roll in and reality takes root.
That could become apparent Tuesday afternoon with the release of the fourth CFP rankings (4 p.m. on ESPN).
Expect Texas Tech to be on solid ground in the top five or six. But Utah, which was 12th last week, is vulnerable to being caught from behind.
The two-loss Utes could find themselves in the No. 13 position Tuesday afternoon, behind Miami.
While Utah struggled at home against a sub-.500 team (Kansas State), the Hurricanes won handily on the road (over Virginia Tech). It’s not difficult to envision the selection committee bumping Miami up one spot, into 12th, and dropping the Utes.
Such a flip would be more significant than it seems.
Miami doesn’t control its destiny in the ACC race, meaning the Hurricanes likely would be cast into the pool of at-large contenders if they finish 10-2. Barring upsets in the Big 12 on Saturday, the Utes also will be in the at-large pool.
If the Hurricanes jump Utah and win their finale at Pittsburgh, they will probably stay above the Utes, who finish their season against unranked Kansas.
That seemingly would leave the Utes on the outside looking in with both CFP doors (automatic qualifier and at-large entry) closed.
In that situation, the Big 12 would have just one two-bid scenario available: BYU beats Texas Tech in the conference championship, relegating the Red Raiders to the at-large pool.
Consider us skeptical. Deeply skeptical.
(All times Pacific)
1. Texas Tech (10-1/7-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: at West Virginia (9 a.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The Red Raiders are favored by 21 points in Morgantown, turning what we thought would be a riveting final Big 12 weekend into a presumptive bore … unless Rich Rodriguez has some magic left in his playbook. (Previous: 1)
2. BYU (10-1/7-1)
Result: won at Cincinnati 26-14
Next up: vs. UCF (10 a.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: Meanwhile, the Cougars are favored by 16.5 over UCF. One of the two championship-shaping games Saturday morning will be closer than expected, right? Nah. (Previous: 2)
3. Utah (9-2/6-2)
Result: beat Kansas State 51-47
Next up: at Kansas (Friday at 9 a.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Kyle Whittingham celebrated his 66th birthday on Friday. It took the present 24 hours to arrive. (Previous: 3)
4. Arizona (8-3/5-3)
Result: beat Baylor 41-17
Next up: at ASU (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Not on our bingo card for the 2025 Big 12 season: The Wildcats opening as 1.5-point favorites in the Territorial Cup. (It probably won’t last. We expect ASU to be favored at kickoff.) (Previous: 5)
5. Arizona State (8-3/6-2)
Result: won at Colorado 42-17
Next up: vs. Arizona (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: To return to the Big 12 championship, the Sun Devils must beat Arizona and either Texas Tech or BYU must lose — and that’s not all. So the path is quite narrow. The fact that isn’t not sealed off completely, given what ASU has endured, is remarkable. (Previous: 4)
6. Iowa State (7-4/4-4)
Result: beat Kansas 38-14
Next up: at Oklahoma State (9 a.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: Who would have figured, back on Oct. 1, when the Cyclones were 5-0 and churning toward the top 10, that they would be eliminated from the Big 12 race in the middle of November. (Previous: 8)
7. TCU (7-4/4-4)
Result: won at Houston 17-14
Next up: vs. Cincinnati (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Oh, what could have been: The Horned Frogs lost fourth-quarter leads to Iowa State and ASU. If they hold off both foes, the season takes on a different shade of purple. (Previous: 10)
8. Houston (8-3/5-3)
Result: lost to TCU 17-14
Next up: at Baylor (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: Year 2 under Willie Fritz qualifies as a first-rate success no matter what happens in Waco. But when you’re so close to 10-2, a slight cringe accompanies 8-4. (Previous: 7)
9. Cincinnati (7-4/5-3)
Result: lost to BYU 26-14
Next up: at TCU (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Teams either get better over the course of the season or they get worse. May we present the latter. (Previous: 6)
10. Kansas State (5-6/4-4)
Result: lost at Utah 51-47
Next up: vs. Colorado (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: At least the Wildcats will end their frustrating season with a victory and bowl eligibility. After that momentous effort in Salt Lake City, they deserve a win this week. (Previous: 9)
11. Baylor (5-6/3-5)
Result: lost at Arizona 41-17
Next up: vs. Houston (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: We have seen many occasions in which public statements of support for the head coach produce first-rate performances. Baylor’s confirmation that Dave Aranda will return in 2025 was not one of those occasions. (Previous: 11)
12. Kansas (5-6/3-5)
Result: lost at Iowa State 38-14
Next up: vs. Utah (Friday at 9 a.m. on ESPN)
Comment: KU’s conference record is even worse than it looks considering the three wins are against Oklahoma State, UCF and West Virginia, which are 4-20 in Big 12 play. (Previous: 12)
13. West Virginia (4-7/2-6)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Texas Tech (9 a.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The best version of the Mountaineers would stand no chance this weekend unless it faces the worst version of the Red Raiders, which doesn’t seem likely with so much at stake for the visitors. (Previous: 13)
14. UCF (5-6/2-6)
Result: beat Oklahoma State 17-14
Next up: at BYU (10 a.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: The Knights are 0-4 on the road in conference play and have not finished within one score of their opponent in any of the four games. (Previous: 14)
15. Colorado (3-8/1-7)
Result: lost to ASU 42-17
Next up: at Kansas State (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: Deion Sanders said he needs “a little more time” to prove he’s the right man for the job. That’s something you say at the end of a tough Year 1, maybe even Year 2. But after Year 3? So lame. (Previous: 15)
16. Oklahoma State (1-10/0-8)
Result: lost at UCF 17-14
Next up: vs. Iowa State (9 a.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: It’s not easy to go winless in conference play in back-to-back seasons. Congrats to the Cowboys on the (looming) accomplishment. (Previous: 16)
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