Blackhawks dealt huge blow with Connor Bedard out until November following shoulder surgery

The Blackhawks‘ planned step toward playoff contention in 2026-27 has already hit a massive snag.

Connor Bedard, the team’s best player, will be sidelined approximately four months after undergoing successful surgery Wednesday on his left shoulder, Hawks team physician Dr. Michael Terry said in a statement.

That timeline slates Bedard to theoretically return in early-to-mid November, more than a month after the start of the NHL season Sept. 29. The Hawks’ schedule will be announced July 16.

Bedard suffered the injury while skating last Thursday with his usual group of Vancouver-based pros. Sabres forward Zach Benson, Canucks forward Arshdeep Bains and Sharks prospect Luca Cagnoni were among the players on the ice at the time.

A video of the incident showed Bedard losing his balance and falling into the boards, then skating off the ice holding his left shoulder in pain.

Bedard injured his right shoulder — his other shoulder — during a game last Dec. 12 in St. Louis and elected not to undergo surgery in that case. He missed about a month of action and was less than 100% for another month or so after returning.

On one hand, it’s preferable that this injury occurred in the middle of the offseason rather than during the season. On the other, this marks three major injuries in three calendar years since the Hawks drafted Bedard, adding to his broken jaw during his rookie season and the aforementioned right shoulder injury.

Bad luck was a factor in all three injuries, and none of them increased the likelihood of the others. But it’s nonetheless a worrying pattern.

How it affects Bedard

Bedard’s insatiable desire to be on ice has become well-known over the past three years, so a recovery timeline of this length will surely frustrate him.

He has also established a pattern of beating recovery timelines. He returned to action sooner than initially forecast after both the jaw and right shoulder injuries, joking last winter that he wanted to play the very next day but reluctantly followed doctors’ advice.

Will he be able to beat this timeline? That might depend on whether or not four months is an optimistic estimate. Hurricanes forward Seth Jarvis, for comparison, underwent shoulder surgery in late June and was ruled out for four-to-six months. But not all shoulder surgeries are the same.

The most important thing for Bedard and the Hawks, of course, is ensuring the shoulder fully heals, minimizing the long-term risk of another injury. Since Bedard’s unique shooting release is one of his most elite skills, shoulder strength is especially vital.

And even with the Hawks’ expectations rising this season, Bedard’s availability will obviously be even more important years down the road, once their entire core has matured into its prime.

Right now, Bedard — currently a restricted free agent — and his agents still have a contract to negotiate, and the drama surrounding those negotiations was dialed up by Ducks star Leo Carlsson signing the Flyers’ shocking offer sheet last Friday.

Bedard didn’t seem like a logical offer-sheet threat when that bomb dropped, partly due to his strong relationship with the Hawks and partly due to the Hawks’ abundant salary-cap space, and the fact nothing has happened since is a good sign. But the Hawks still must be careful.

Will this surgery affect how much the Hawks are willing to pay Bedard? If at all, probably only slightly, since the terms being discussed — whether on a four-year bridge deal or on a maximum-length eight-year deal — dwarf a four-month timeline.

How it affects the Hawks

Analytical models were already skeptical of the Hawks’ internal belief they will improve substantially next season, and those models will be even more bearish now.

The Hawks will be significant underdogs in virtually every game they play in October and November without Bedard. Some of their worst performances of last season occurred in the week following his injury, although their record ended up being a semi-respectable 5-6-1 during his absence.

The bigger problem turned out to be Bedard’s inability to regain his top form after returning to the lineup Jan. 9. The team posted a poor 11-21-7 record from then on, and Bedard’s production declined from 1.42 points per game pre-injury to 0.82 post-injury.

All parties will have more time to strategically prepare for his absence — and for his return — this time, and the rest of Bedard’s body should be extra fresh and healthy by November. But it’s never easy to jump directly into action without the benefit of ramping up through training camp.

During Bedard’s absence, Frank Nazar and Anton Frondell will likely operate as the Hawks’ first- and second-line centers, in some order. And they’ll do so with little proven support, since the Hawks have failed to add an established top-six forward this summer — at least so far.

Hawks general manager Kyle Davidson was already planning to start those two forwards at center, even though many around the league think they’re better-suited as wingers. Now, their center aptitude will be tested heartily right off the bat.

The Hawks also hope that rookie winger Roman Kantserov immediately erupts, that young wingers Nick Lardis, Oliver Moore and Ryan Greene take big developmental steps, that veteran winger Tyler Bertuzzi repeats his career year and that new No. 1 defenseman Bowen Byram boosts the offense with his puck-moving skills.

All of that was true before Bedard’s surgery, too, but even more now depends on those things actually happening.