Evan Engram made a read and ran a route he’s probably run scores of times in his NFL career.
In the first quarter against Dallas last month, Engram lined up in the slot, tight to the formation off to quarterback Bo Nix’s right. He pressed slightly outside, then turned inside in a soft spot against a zone defense. Nix calmly hit Engram, who turned up the field and gained 11 yards.
No team will ever say no to a first down on first down, but overall, this was pretty innocuous.
Out in the middle of the field, scoreless game early, first completion of the day for Denver’s second-year quarterback.
The play is really only remarkable for the trend it represents: That was the last time the Broncos generated a first down with a pass on an opening drive.
Not only that, it’s the only pass play that’s moved the chains on an opening drive for Sean Payton’s offense since Week 2 against Indianapolis.
The Broncos have more than one issue to work through offensively.
Few of their offensive maladies, however, are more acute than the group’s inability to get into gear early in games. In that struggle, a microcosm of all the various issues starts to develop. Nix hasn’t produced early in games, but the supporting cast has struggled, too. Head coach Sean Payton’s play sequencing has featured a few bursts of brilliance but overall hasn’t popped.
If a bout of happy feet or inaccuracy from Nix doesn’t put the Broncos behind the chains, then a drop, a penalty, a befuddling call or a turnover too frequently does.
That’s not to say the Broncos have to storm out to a game-opening touchdown drive to beat Kansas City on Sunday at Empower Field or even win the AFC West. This version of the Broncos has covered up early struggles admirably. Denver’s won seven straight games entering their biggest of the season and in the process put the nine-time defending division champs into chase mode. Even desperation mode.
For Denver to have a realistic chance of mounting a deep playoff run or pushing toward a Super Bowl appearance, however, several offensive issues have to get ironed out.
The starting point, naturally, is the beginning.
“It’s our job (as coaches) to, offensively, put ourselves in a position to start faster,” Payton said this week. “When I discussed this after the (Raiders) game, there aren’t many times when a game’s over — even when you win — where you’re fully satisfied. …
“I like that this year we’re doing better in these one-score games. But to go where we want to go, there has to be improvement and certainly we understand that.”
Flat starts
Against the Raiders, Denver started with three straight runs to J.K. Dobbins that totaled 9 yards and then punted.
They generated a pair of first downs with Dobbins on the ground against Houston, but Nix went 0 of 3 and Wil Lutz’s field goal attempt was blocked.
That represented the best scoring chance Denver’s had on an opening drive since it started the season with a field goal against Tennessee in Week 1 and a 23-yard touchdown pass from Nix to Marvin Mims Jr. at Indianapolis in Week 2.
On those two drives, Denver totaled seven first downs. Nix went 7 of 11 for 77 yards and the touchdown.
In eight drives opening drives since, Denver’s totaled three first downs. They went three-and-out five straight tries from Week 3-7 before Nix found Engram for that 11-yard gain against the Cowboys.
The next play, Nix fired well behind rookie receiver Pat Bryant and was intercepted. The margin of the miss was so substantial that most figured Bryant ran the wrong route. Payton has clarified multiple times that the turnover fell on Nix, not the rookie receiver — “a lot of people felt like the route was off, but it was just an error throw,” Payton said Monday.
Nix the past eight weeks is 4-of-13 passing for 26 yards and that interception on Denver’s opening drive. He has not run the ball once.
“Completions help get you in a rhythm, so finding completions early — everyone reacts to it different,” offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said Thursday. “I think we’ve seen from Bo games where we’ve struggled offensively early and then all of a sudden he finds a way to turn it on and do what we have to do in the fourth quarter or the second half or whenever we need it.
“There’s a lot of belief that we’ll find a way regardless of how it starts. Doesn’t mean we want to start slow.”
They have, though, and have done so in a multitude of ways.
They went three-and-out on consecutive rushes against Las Vegas and three-and-out on consecutive passes against the New York Giants in Week 7.
They fumbled in London Week 6 and intercepted in Denver Week 8.
They’ve started backed up at Houston and in plus field position against the Raiders. Not one of those times did they capitalize.
Cat-and-mouse
Opening drives set a tone, but they also serve as a chance for the coaching staffs on each sideline to try to solve the other team’s game plan for that particular week.
“When you put together those opening plays, there’s a rhyme and reason to what you’re doing,” Payton said. “How are they going to play certain personnel groupings? This team plays a lot of nickel, and they’ll play base. And then, well, are they going to play base to this (specific) personnel?
“So you want to find that out early in the game so you understand when you put that personnel on the field, you’re planning on getting one (defense) or the other.”
This is part of the reason Payton runs so many different personnel groupings and formations early in games. He wants to see how Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo sets his defense to tight end Evan Engram. Or how the Chiefs will deal with Marvin Mims Jr.’s ability to line up in the backfield or across the formation.
For a specific example, turn to the Broncos’ other unit.
On Thursday night against Las Vegas, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph decided during a short week of preparation that he was going to stay in nickel even when the Raiders had two tight ends in the game because one of them, Brock Bowers, is perhaps the most dangerous receiving threat in football at his position.
“When we gave (Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly) nickel early on, he gave me ‘12’ personnel (one back, two tight ends) with in-line looks and I didn’t care,” Joseph told The Post, “because I knew they couldn’t run the ball. It was more important to get Bowers stopped than stopping the run. I took my front over his front.
“Now, if you’re playing a really good offensive line and running game that’s tough to do, but I conceded that early to make sure I didn’t let Bowers get off to a good start.”
Joseph said he believes in using his curveball early in a game.
“If I matched something the week before, I’m not going to match it the same way,” he said. “If it’s early week pressure the week before, maybe it’s more dormant, sit back and wait. Pressure on second-and-3 vs. second-and-9 or 10.
“You want to keep them off balance and also put some of your tendencies from the past weeks to bed early so he doesn’t come back to it later.”
Joseph, for example, now has two weeks of tape playing without Pat Surtain II. Chiefs coach Andy Reid will have hypotheses about how Joseph plans to account for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. He’ll use the opening plays to try to test those thoughts. Joseph will try to mask or bluff as much as he can for as long as he can — without giving up plays.
“I pride myself on not letting them practice on me (during the week),” Joseph said. “So make sure off the first 15 (plays), I want them to see looks they haven’t practiced. That’s part of game-planning. Then I can come back to my bread and butter. … Throw the curveballs early. I’m a firm believer in that.
“The offense is going to give you their best plays, and he’s going to get an idea of how he sees you for that day.”
The compounding impact of struggling early, then, also becomes clear.
The Broncos offense isn’t just failing to produce points or long drives to start games. It also just isn’t running very many plays when first downs are so difficult to come by. That means Payton and company get to stress-test fewer parts of opposing defenses, scope fewer keys for subsequent drives and must push the information-gathering process deeper into the game.
“Battleship decisions”
Nix’s second season has not been the rocket ship ride some predicted.
He’s marginally improved in some metrics, and he’s tied for fifth in the NFL with 18 touchdown passes through 10 games.
But the 2024 first-round pick has also seen, broadly speaking, backtracking in several efficiency metrics.
He has conjured fourth-quarter magic on multiple occasions, but he’s in a rough patch overall, completing just 57.7% of his passes over the past six games.
He need not apologize for having a team that enters Week 11 tied for the best record in the AFC, of course, but he also understands the stakes for improvement on his side of the ball.
When asked how much joy he’s experiencing on the field this week, Nix didn’t exactly jump to use those terms.
“Well, it’s great to win games,” Nix started, noting that it’s easier to stomach a laundry list of areas needing improvement after wins than after losses. “… It’s not aesthetically pleasing or it’s not as good as we want it to look, but at the end of the day, you play to win and a win is the only thing that’s going to matter in weeks to come.
“I do think that when we start playing with all three phases of the game, I think it’s going to be a lot more fun.”
The Broncos are riding a top-ranked defense, but also Nix’s ability to find a way to produce late in games. His numbers are substantially better in the fourth quarter than the first three. Denver has trailed in every game this season and yet hasn’t lost since Sept. 21.
Nix’s bugaboos at this point are well-documented.
Like most quarterbacks, his accuracy wanes when his feet get out of sync.
“There are times where you’re like, ‘I wish the quarterback would’ve kept his base and been in a better position to throw,’” Lombardi said. “Then the next snap, he’s off running for a 20-yard gain. So it’s definitely something that you have to work on.”
He’s the least-sacked and least-pressured quarterback in football, and yet he’s throwing on the run more than any player in football, according to Next Gen Stats.
He’s done little damage down the field so far this season. Nix has completed just 4 of 14 first-half passes of 10 or more air yards over the past two games and has a completion percentage over expected that’s considerably underwater in both 10-19 air-yard throws (minus-8.9%) and 20-plus air-yard throws (minus-7.9%).
Longtime Atlanta Falcons quarterback and now CBS commentator Matt Ryan sees a potential rationale for Nix’s early-late splits. Essentially, there may be more pressure with the game on the line, but there’s also sometimes less to think about and process.
“I look at Bo and he’s been at his best when the moments have been the most important in the season,” Ryan said. “In the fourth quarter, trailing and coming from behind, I think that’s an admirable trait. That’s good. It’s what you want. You want guys that aren’t scared of the moment.
“But you’re also freed up as a quarterback when you’re trailing and you’re coming from behind. There’s a level of freedom that comes with knowing you have to be aggressive. You have to fit balls in there and push balls down the field and take off and escape and run.”
If the early portion of the game is setting up a chess match, then the late-game is what Nix this week called “battleship decisions.”
That delineation is not unlike Denver’s offensive season as a whole.
The Broncos have failed the early game offensive test time and time again, and yet they’re acing the 2025 season. Logic would suggest something needs to change in order to keep this run going, and yet Nix and the Broncos keep on sinking enemy ships in crunch time.
Now comes the biggest challenge and simultaneously the biggest opportunity yet.
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