Chiefs (5-4) at Broncos (8-2)
When: Sunday, 2:25 p.m.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
TV/radio: CBS, 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Chiefs series: Here we go again. The Broncos endured a long period of futility in this matchup — 16 straight losses from November 2015 to early October 2023 — before finally toppling the Chiefs 24-9 on Oct. 29, 2023. Denver split this series 1-1 last year, drubbing Kansas City 38-0 in the final game of the regular season as the Chiefs rested their starters. The Broncos are 56-73-0 against the Chiefs all-time.
In the spotlight: Can Nik Bonitto and company take down Patrick Mahomes?
On Monday night, the Broncos’ 26-year-old edge rusher stood in a parking lot in Federal Heights, depositing box after box of Thanksgiving meals into the trunks of families pulling through a makeshift drive-thru in Thrive Church.
Bonitto wore a hoodie, sweats and a large black brace on his wrist. He has been wearing the brace since hurting his wrist in the Broncos’ Week 1 opener against the Titans. The splint didn’t much hurt his ability to pick up turkeys. And it certainly hasn’t hurt his ability to gobble up opposing offenses, as Bonitto put together another dominant performance against the Raiders last Thursday with eight pressures and 1.5 sacks.
But the greatest challenge of Bonitto’s career year — first in the NFL in QB pressures (51), third in sacks (9.5) — will come Sunday, when the Chiefs and one of the NFL’s most elusive quarterbacks come to Empower Field.
“That’s the guy that everybody looks to when it comes to sacking the quarterback,” Bonitto said Monday. “He’s one of the best in our game, so, for sure — it’s going to be exciting.”
The Patrick Mahomes of the last three years is not quite the same game-breaker the NFL saw in his mid-20s. He has dropped from the league’s undisputed top quarterback to just arguably the top dog. He lingers tied for 10th in yards per attempt (7.4) and a distant 12th in passer rating (98.2) through 10 weeks. The Chiefs are more vulnerable than at any point since the Mahomes Era began in 2018, sitting at 5-4 and a distant third in the AFC West.
First-round rookie tackle Josh Simmons has missed the last four weeks while dealing with a family matter. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has been typically excellent but has sagged on third down and in the red zone. And yet, Kansas City is still as complex to navigate as a laser maze because of the 30-year-old Mahomes, who’s playing a shiftier brand of football than ever.
Mahomes’ sack rate the past two years has been the highest of his career. Still, the Chiefs rank ninth in the NFL overall in sack rate allowed. And Mahomes has gotten the ball out at an average rate of 2.69 seconds in 2025 — more than 0.2 ticks faster than any season of his NFL career. He is a shapeshifter under center, capable of adjusting his style and timing with each passing season in Kansas City. And this year, with a shaky situation at tackle between Simmons and backup Jaylon Moore, Mahomes is either punishing teams on quick intermediate routes or with his legs.
Opposing defenses fear Mahomes much more than running back Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt, as the Chiefs have faced one of the highest rates of defensive-back-heavy formations in the NFL when running the ball, according to the league’s Next Gen Stats. Pacheco and Hunt haven’t been able to take much advantage against a light box, both averaging less than 4.5 yards a carry on such attempts. But Mahomes has feasted: 7.8 yards a carry and 266 yards with his legs when defenses go with seven or less near the line of scrimmage.
His one weakness? Pressure. Mahomes is 28-of-71 passing when under duress, according to Next Gen Stats. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has done an outstanding job of throwing pressure at Mahomes across the Broncos and Chiefs’ last three meetings, and held him to a total of two touchdowns in that time.
“It’s more about getting them covered, and making them hold the ball enough until we can get there,” Joseph said Thursday.
Denver will need another monster effort from Bonitto and company at Empower Field on Sunday in a game that could assert them as the new class of the AFC West.
“This division’s been run by the Chiefs for so many years now,” Bonitto said Monday. “So, I mean, if we’re going to want to be that team to win the division and reach the goals that we said we want, we’re gonna have to go through them and beat them.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: Denver will play without bell-cow J.K. Dobbins for the first time this year, in some truly horrendous timing. Suddenly, rookie RJ Harvey will be thrown to the wolves against Chris Jones, Nick Bolton and company. Harvey has only gotten 10-plus carries once this year, and is averaging 3.3 yards a carry outside of a 50-yard pop in Week 1. Kansas City has a top-12 rushing defense through nine games in 2025. Edge: Chiefs
When Broncos pass: Bo Nix has been a bottom-tier NFL quarterback this year outside of the fourth quarter. The clutch gene helps. Against the Raiders last week, the script actually flipped. Nix was in rhythm in the second quarter before completely falling out of it in the second half. Denver will need juice from Nix early and late against Kansas City with Dobbins out and an untested Harvey in the run game. This is the kind of matchup where the Broncos start to determine if he’s the guy for a long-term extension after 2026. Edge: Chiefs
RELATED: Broncos analysis: To unleash Bo Nix and unlock offense, Sean Payton must start at the beginning
When Chiefs run: The key here is Patrick Mahomes. Lead back Isiah Pacheco’s health is up in the air after a sprained MCL in Week 8, and backfield mate Kareem Hunt has averaged 3.6 yards a carry across his last four NFL seasons. But Mahomes is on pace for the best rushing season of his career, and has put up 123 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in his last two games. The Broncos have handled dual-threat QBs with aplomb this year, but Mahomes is a different kind. Slight edge: Broncos
When Chiefs pass: The Broncos still don’t have cornerback Pat Surtain II (pec). The Chiefs have Mahomes, even if coordinator Vance Joseph has proven effective at containing him. WR1 Rashee Rice has been back for three weeks, too, adding a much more dangerous element to Kansas City’s attack. Slight edge: Chiefs
Special teams: Chiefs punter Matt Araiza has pinned the second-highest percentage of boots inside the 20 (54.5%) of any punter in the NFL this season. Broncos rookie Jeremy Crawshaw now sits below league-average in that category, and the punting differential in Raiders-Broncos nearly swung a game for Las Vegas. The Broncos do get a huge lift with the return of All-Pro Marvin Mims Jr., and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has been iffy this year. Edge: Even
Coaching: The Andy Reid-Matt Nagy-Steve Spagnuolo trio is as proven as any in the NFL. Joseph is one of the highest-regarded defensive coordinators in the NFL at the moment, but Sean Payton has plenty to prove with his play-calling and offensive execution after the past two weeks. Slight edge: Chiefs
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 334.6 (13th) | 370.1 (7th) |
| Rush offense | 128.6 (9th) | 121.2 (12th) |
| Pass offense | 206.0 (18th) | 248.9 (5th) |
| Points per game | 23.5 (17th) | 26.1 (9th) |
| Total defense | 270.7 (3rd) | 291.8 (6th) |
| Run defense | 91.2 (4th) | 104.6 (12th) |
| Pass defense | 179.5 (6th) | 187.2 (7th) |
| Points allowed | 17.3 (3rd) | 17.7 (4th) |
By the numbers
1,908: Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards this season when he isn’t pressured, the most in the NFL.
8: Chiefs All-Pro Chris Jones’ quarterback hits through nine games this year, on pace for his fewest total since 2017.
28: Broncos All-Pro Zach Allen’s quarterback hits through 10 games this year, the most in the NFL.
8: Difference between Allen’s QB-hit total and second-place Nik Bonitto’s (20), the same difference between Bonitto’s total and 19th-place Leonard Williams.
4: Bo Nix’s game-winning drives in 2025, the most in the NFL.
18%: Percentage of snaps Broncos linebacker Dre Greenlaw has played where he’s recorded a tackle.
X-factors
Broncos: LB Justin Strnad. He’s stepped up for two years in the face of injuries, and Strnad will step back into the limelight against Kansas City after starting ILB Alex Singleton revealed Monday he’d had surgery to remove a testicular tumor. Strnad said Monday the Broncos will be playing for Singleton, and this Kansas City matchup will put Strnad’s skills in coverage and pass-rush on full display as Vance Joseph tries to disrupt Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs: WR Xavier Worthy. He’s one of the fastest players in the league, but — much like the Broncos’ utilization of speedster Mims — Worthy’s usage comes and goes with each passing week. Andy Reid said this past week that Kansas City isn’t “down on Xavier Worthy,” and the Broncos will need to account for Worthy on every single snap without defensive leaders Pat Surtain II and green-dot captain Singleton.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos reporter: Kansas City 23, Denver 21
The Broncos are 6-2 in one-score games. The Chiefs are 0-4. And yet K.C. is a 4-point road favorite against the team with the NFL’s longest home winning streak. Sean Payton will readily remind anyone listening that you are what your record says you are, but your record does not necessarily forecast what you’re expected to be going forward. The West tightens by one turn.
Luca Evans, Broncos reporter: Kansas City 24, Denver 20
This is not the week to be missing J.K. Dobbins, Pat Surtain II and Alex Singleton, who are among the 10 most important players on this Broncos roster. Kansas City is vulnerable. So is Denver, suddenly, with a rash of injuries and absences. Let’s circle back to this matchup in Week 17 on Christmas.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 19, Chiefs 17
Everything screams loss for the Broncos with their injuries and the Chiefs’ urgency. But the reality is the Broncos have a path to victory. Every big game Patrick Mahomes has lost over the last few years involves a defensive line capable of making him miserable. The Broncos will get to Mahomes, and the upset hinges on creating turnovers and a short field for Bo Nix. The template is the Texans game.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 23, Chiefs 22
If Andy Reid’s 22-4 career record after a bye doesn’t scare you, this number might: The Chiefs are 14-1 in division road tilts since 2016 from Nov. 1 to the end of the regular season. That one loss? The “KC JV Game” here in Week 18 of last year. When they try, they fly. But once you get that 2015 vibe, it’s hard to let that go. With Empower rocking and the defense rolling, Mile High Magic somehow finds a way.
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