Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Who are your Broncos MVP candidates at the halfway point of the season?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, thanks for writing in and getting us going on this bye week mega mailbag. I haven’t done one in a while, so we’ve got a few catch-up questions here and a few that serve us well going into an off week and then the stretch run of six remaining games.
The Broncos, of course, are more than halfway through the season at this point, but it’s still a natural time to look back a bit at what’s got Sean Payton’s team to this point. They’re 9-2, winners of eight straight, in control of the AFC West and in position to contend for the No. 1 seed.
Let’s go with one defensive MVP and one offensive MVP.
On defense, there are a number of worthy candidates. Pat Surtain II, of course, despite the fact Denver’s played well and won three straight in his absence. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper — the former is a defensive player of the year frontrunner with 9.5 sacks, and the latter is playing the best ball of his career for about the fourth straight year. You could make an argument for safety Talanoa Hufanga, too, whose arrival this offseason has given Denver a forceful playmaker on the back end of the defense.
For this exercise, though, the defensive MVP so far is Zach Allen.
The Denver defensive tackle didn’t have a particularly productive opening few games as far as counting stats go, but he’s been a monster in the middle of the Broncos’ defense over the past two-plus months. He’s got 30 quarterback hits, according to Pro Football Reference, which is nine more than anybody else in football. Bonitto is among three tied for second at 21.
He’s generated 24 pressures and five sacks since Week 5, one week after the start of Denver’s eight-game winning streak. And he’s putting up numbers despite playing significantly fewer snaps than a year ago. Allen’s not played more than 68.4% since Week 6 — he was at 79.1% or higher each of the first five games — which means he’s got a chance to be fresher for Denver’s stretch run.
The Broncos have depth at all three levels and have shown they can cover injuries across the board. Most impressive is the work done without Surtain. The linebacking group held up without Dre Greenlaw for several weeks and without Alex Singleton on Sunday. The front line missed Malcolm Roach early in the year but was still among the game’s best. They may be able to cover a short Allen absence, but he’s at or very near the top of the list of the most indispensable pieces to the puzzle. Allen signed a $106 million extension this summer and has been worth every penny so far.
Offensively, J.K. Dobbins might have gotten the nod before his injury earlier this month. Let’s go with left tackle Garett Bolles.
The longest tenured Bronco is playing some of the best football at age 33. Bolles, according to Next Gen Stats, entered Sunday’s game against Kansas City allowing a pressure rate of just 4.8%, the lowest mark of any left tackle with more than 100 pass protection reps this year. Chiefs standout pass-rusher George Karlaftis, who primarily lines up over left tackles, was credited with four pressures off Denver’s left on Sunday, but two were in situations where Bolles blocked down and another was on a stunt inside against guard Alex Palczewski.
Bolles is one of two qualified left tackles in the NFL so far who have not been charged with a sack, per NGS.
Denver’s offensive line has been the most consistent part of its offense so far this season. Bo Nix has made fourth-quarter magic, Courtland Sutton is a third-down machine and Troy Franklin’s made a bunch of big plays through some inconsistent moments. Obviously, Dobbins was having a terrific year until he got hurt recently.
Hard to go wrong with a stalwart pass protector who’s playing at an elite level, though.
Do you think there’s a chance the Broncos sign a veteran running back (for example: Jamaal Williams) to assist with their end-of-season push to secure a No. 1 playoff seed?
— William Christensen, Orem, Utah
Hey William, thanks for writing in, and good question.
This is just the kind of situation the Broncos have had Jaleel McLaughlin ready for. If the Broncos can see some progress from rookie RJ Harvey, that can be a functional duo for the remainder of the season.
Then again, Denver clearly felt the need to add a veteran presence to the room this summer — that’s why they signed Dobbins in June in the first place — and the depth would really be tested at this point with one more injury.
The Broncos have former Kansas State and Dallas running back Deuce Vaughn on their practice squad. Outside of another injury, a practice squad addition makes the most sense. To sign a player off another team’s practice squad, he must be on the active roster for at least three games. That would mean somebody is either inactive on gameday or taking a jersey from either McLaughlin or Tyler Badie, which doesn’t seem likely.
Here’s a list of backs who have worked out for teams over the past month, according to the NFL’s transaction wire: Israel Abanikanda, Raheem Blackshear, Montrell Johnson, ShunDerrick Powell, D’Enest Johnson, Tyrion Davis-Price, Evan Hull, Ian Wheeler, Rushawn Baker, Jonathan Ward, Jordan Waters.
The Broncos had Davis-Price, a 2022 third-round pick out of LSU, in for a workout earlier this season when they ultimately elected to sign Vaughn.
Any chance we see Deuce Vaughn on the active roster this year? He was such a fun back to watch at Kansas State. And when is Pat Surtain II coming back? Our secondary needs him.
— Mark, Arvada
Thanks for writing, as always, Mark. I appreciate that your questions are about a practice squad back and the reigning defensive player of the year. We’ve got the whole roster spectrum covered.
On Vaughn, he could be elevated, but as outlined above, likely only in the event of injury or massive underperformance. He’s been on the practice squad for long enough now, though, that he should have built himself a bit of a lead over somebody off the street should Denver decide to go that direction.
As for Surtain, it certainly felt all along like the Broncos were hoping and planning to have him back Nov. 30 against Washington. The bye week factored squarely into injured reserve consideration because it meant Surtain had nearly five full weeks from when he got hurt to that game. If he’s back for it, he’ll have only missed three.
Obviously, he’ll have to continue to make progress without setbacks, but it’d be a mild to moderate surprise if he’s not back out there next time Denver takes the field.
Getting back to the playoffs would be a big step for the all-around future of this franchise. That was what most of us were thinking right before the season started. Now, by the time the Chargers come to town, what do you think our expectations will be heading into late January if the Broncos have the playoffs locked up in Mile High?
— Race, Ogallala, Neb.
Hey Race, thanks for writing in. After the latest win over the Chiefs, Denver’s squarely in control of the division and in the mix for the AFC’s top seed. Here’s a quick rundown of various playoff odds from a pair of outlets.
The Athletic
Make playoffs: 97%
Win division: 76%
No. 1 seed: 23%
ESPN
Make playoffs: 97%
Win division: 77%
No. 1 seed: 30%
Those give you a sense of the strong position the Broncos are currently in. The other main contenders for the No. 1 seed are New England and Indianapolis. The Patriots (9-2) have the easiest schedule remaining. The Colts (8-2) face a much tougher road, but they also have a head-to-head win over Denver in the bank. New England current shows the best odds of the top seed, according to The Athletic (46%), but ESPN has the Broncos’ 30% at the top of the heap with Indy (28%) and New England (25%) right behind.
So if you’re tracking that race, those teams plus 7-3 Buffalo are the top teams to watch at this point.
And if you’re winning your division and contending for the top seed, you’re clearly taking aim at the Super Bowl.
Ten penalties for 147 yards. How do you do that and still win? Coaching? Better practice routine? More classroom? Jeez.
— David Brown, Silverthorne
Riley Moss seems to have joined the former Garrett Bolles “refs are going to call literally everything against him” club. A bunch of marginal calls because of a “reputation,” at best, or a league conspiracy at worst. Thoughts?
– Dave G., Seattle
The Daves chime in with different but related questions.
Yes, Denver had 147 penalty yards against Kansas City, and yes, they’ve been way too penalty-prone this year. Sunday’s game comes with a bit of an asterisk because 86 of those yards came on two Riley Moss pass interference calls.
Take those away, and eight for 61 yards isn’t great, but the Broncos have had far worse outings.
The Moss interference calls, though, are definitely an issue. I won’t spend a ton of time getting into it because we covered the matter pretty thoroughly after the game. Still, I do think the reputation thing is real with Moss.
The 46-yard penalty in the fourth quarter was definitely interference. Moss said so himself. The first one… pretty ticky tack if you ask me. That’s probably a fair summation of Moss’ season so far. He’s handsy, he’s physical and he’s going to get flagged sometimes. But has he earned nearly double the interference flags (nine) compared to anybody else in the league (nobody else has more than five)? That’s a stretch.
I’m prefacing my question by noting that I’m a St. Louis Cardinals fan, and about 10 years ago, Allen Craig, their best hitter at the time, suffered a Lisfranc injury that derailed his career. It didn’t help that the Cardinals were a championship-level team and they rushed him back for the playoffs even though he was compromised. All of this is context for asking what you know about J.K. Dobbins’ injury and whether the Broncos are confident he can come back from it after surgery, however long that might take.
— David, Charlotte, N.C.
Our run of Davids and Daves continues. Thanks for writing in!
We covered this pretty extensively in our postgame coverage. Lisfranc injuries are really tough to come back from, though it depends on the exact nature of the injury, and we don’t know that precisely with Dobbins. We know it required surgery, which means there was tearing in at least one of several ligaments around that joint that needed to be repaired for Dobbins to have the structural integrity needed to get back to playing.
The thing about Lisfranc injuries that’s so tough, according to Dr. Nicholas Strasser, an orthopedic foot and ankle surgeon I talked to this week, is that not only can the recovery itself be tricky and long, but also that they, in some cases, lead to longer-term issues like arthritis.
The Broncos and Dobbins are each posturing as confident he can make a full recovery and get back to playing at a high level. A source told The Denver Post that Dobbins is hoping to play if Denver makes the Super Bowl in February.
The reality, of course, is that Dobbins is a free agent after the season since he signed a one-year deal back in June. So while there’s no need to rush to any kind of prediction about Dobbins’ future, the nature of the injury and his contractual status make it at least plausible that he’s played his final snap in Denver.
What are the chances the Broncos get flexed out of the Sunday night game on Nov. 30 against the Commanders?
— Kent H., Ventura, Calif.
Hey Kent, thanks for writing in and for the timely question. The answer, apparently, is 0%.
That decision would have had to have been made early this week, and it’s been crickets from the league. Plus, former Post great Nicki Jhabvala — now covering Washington for The Athletic — reported Monday that the game wasn’t going to be flexed.
The Commanders are in a hard way at 3-8, and they may not have QB Jayden Daniels back by Nov. 30. But the rest of the options for flexing are limited — four of the matchups are locked into Thanksgiving Day or Black Friday — and the Broncos remain a strong draw.
So we’ll all channel the Commodores and get ready for the Nightshift out on the East Coast. But not before enjoying this bye week.
Hi Parker, my question is about Ja’Quan McMillian. He is a special talent, and I would love to see him in the orange and blue for many more years to come. Will we have enough money to pay him in the offseason?
— Tim, Fort Collins
Hey Tim, thanks for writing and great question. McMillian held the nickel job in camp over rookie Jahdae Barron and he’s played really well again this year. He’s one of the best in the league at a position that’s A) difficult to find good players at, and B) is a premium position in the modern NFL.
McMillian’s also a heck of a bargain with a base salary of $1.03 million this year.
The Broncos have him under team control for the 2026 season because he’s just a restricted free agent. They’ll have to decide how high a tender to place on him, but they’ll have the ability to, at worst, match an offer sheet from another team. The second-round tender this year checked in at $5.346 million, so it will likely nudge higher in the spring. The first-round tender was $7.458 million. That would pretty obviously be enough to scare off other teams and a second-round tender might be, too. Or Denver could talk long-term extension with McMillian, too.
Either way, it’s rarely smart business to part with talented young players, particularly at positions like corner/nickel. The Broncos have real depth with Barron, Kris Abrams-Draine and others. All the same, it’d be hard to believe McMillian ends up anything other than a no-doubt keeper.
I think our dream of having a 1,000-yard rusher this year is dashed with J.K. Dobbins’ injury. Do you think we’ll have a 1,000-yard receiver? Courtland Sutton is on pace for 1,003, but his production has been inconsistent this year. Maybe Bo Nix and Troy Franklin will finally click and have multiple deep bombs against someone.
— Mike, Denver
Mike, thanks for writing in. Magic 8 Ball says… No 1,000-yard receiver or rusher for Denver this year. We’ve all seen Sutton get on a heater before, so that’s certainly possible. But also consider that, for the first time in a long time, there’s at least a chance Denver will have its playoff fortunes signed, sealed and delivered early.
Davis Webb is our QB coach and resident “quarterback whisperer” and is responsible for teaching our thrower the art of the passing game. Perhaps he should consider giving our Bo Nix some dancing lessons. His footwork wouldn’t last long on “DWTS.” Dance with me on this one, Parker!
— Areferee, Greeley
Hey Ref, thanks for writing in. I asked Sean Payton about this very topic recently, and here’s what he said about the work Nix and the quarterbacks get in during practice weeks. Obviously, it’s difficult to make wholesale changes during the season — those are really only possible in the offseason — but prepping for DWTS is part of the weekly routine at Broncos Park.
“I think Davis does a great job,” Payton said Nov. 10. “There are times where, during portions of practice, they’ll work specifically on the left off of three-step (drop), left off of five, right off of three, right off of five, route specific.”
My question is one that will be asked by many: When will we get a competent effort from all phases of special teams? Is special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi the problem? The schemes? The personnel?
— David Brown, Silverthorne
Another one from David in Silverthorne! Thanks for writing. Ask and you shall receive. Sunday against Kansas City was by far the best performance of the year for Rizzi’s group.
Wil Lutz went 5 for 5, including a 54-yard game-tying field goal and the walk-off winner. The margin was only three points before Lutz’s long field goal because Frank Crum blocked an extra point. Marvin Mims Jr. had a 70-yard punt return. Rookie punter Jeremy Crawshaw netted an average of 48 yards on four punts and put three inside the 20 with no touchbacks. The Broncos were a whopping plus-13 in average starting field position (own 35 compared to own 22 for Kansas City) and had a slight advantage in field position following kickoffs, too (own 30 to own 28).
Really, a terrific special teams outing across the board for the Broncos.
Can Dondrea Tillman switch over to Tight End already?! He seems like the only guy who has that TE juice! Please suggest it to Coach Payton.
— Jay Lav, Los Angeles
Hey Jay, great question. Matter of fact, Tillman played tight end in high school. A change may not be in the cards now — Payton did get asked about this and he gave a pretty generic answer — but Tillman’s certainly got a kick out of his newfound notoriety after two long interception returns this year.
Payton did have a good quip about it, saying of Tillman, “I think you’d have to block them all for him to score.”
Apprised of that comment last week, Tillman smiled and said, “Of course. If I’m running it back 90 yards I’m going to need some help.”
Does Sean Payton just really late bye weeks or is this just how the schedule shakes out? It wasn’t until Week 14 last year, and it’s Week 12 this year.
— Ryan, Denver
Hey Ryan, good question. Teams don’t get to choose when they have their bye week, so it’s basically a coincidence Denver’s had a late one each of the past two years. You can ask to have your bye after an international game, but as the league expands its menu of games overseas each year, it’s not possible to accommodate every team’s wishes on that front each year.
Payton has said previously that you’re usually looking for a bye somewhere in the middle of the season. I know some players this year felt even more taxed in recent weeks than last year’s Week 14 bye because of the placement of the Thursday night game.
Last year, the bye came really late, but Denver had the TNF game and subsequent mini bye in Week 7. This year, they had to wait until Week 10 before playing Las Vegas on a Thursday night. And that was the team’s seventh game in 38 days.
So, this bye week is well-timed and well-earned for the Broncos.
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