California’s economy has more jobs than we thought – and the nation fewer – thanks to what was once geeky economic calculations but became a political flashpoint.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed a semiannual deep dive into monthly job counts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The August report estimates that, as of March 2026, California’s job count was 43,000 workers higher than the 18.2 million previously reported.
It’s the third-largest upward revision among the states and a boost to the Golden State’s position as one of the nation’s biggest job creators, so far, in 2026. Nationally, these revisions estimate U.S. employment was 79,000 lower than the 158.7 million initially tallied.
Why the ever-changing numbers? It’s part of a process that frequently rechecks initial estimates.
Consider how the bureau releases job counts shortly after each month ends by constantly surveying large employers. One recent headache for these counts is the poor response to that polling. Those monthly job estimates are then adjusted in the two subsequent months as more surveys come in.
Then there’s a second review, the so-called “benchmark” revision. This incorporates into job counts staffing patterns drawn from unemployment insurance data that employers file with the government. August’s report is a hint at what the formal benchmarking revisions will show the final counts when released early next year.
What amounts to statistical quality control efforts for the monthly job counts was once low-profile, highly technical recalibration, watched largely by economists. But the spotlight has become brighter.
Last year, President Donald Trump was so upset at the monthly job-count retoolings that he fired Erika McEntarfer, the BLS director. Why? He claimed that partisanship and incompetence led to monthly revisions that had slashed job growth totals for the early months of his second presidency.
Critics said the removal of McEntarfer raised questions about the independence of one of the nation’s top economic tracking agencies.
Political ploy?
Some might wonder if politics are in play with this latest revision.
This summer’s 79,000 downward revision of national numbers is nowhere near the 911,000 cut reported a year ago. That might please the president, no?
Well, ponder what my trusty spreadsheet found in state data.
You can’t imagine Trump being happy to see California, his political nemesis, gaining a significant upward revision. Nor is he likely thrilled that another blue state, New York, was No. 1 with an estimated 88,500 bump using this new math.
Plus, results were mixed for California’s economic rivals – states that are among Trump’s favorites. Florida’s addition of 47,900 jobs was the second-largest increase among the states. But the 13,800 reduction for Texas was the fifth-worst revision.
And the biggest cut? Ohio, which voted for Trump in 2024, saw its job count lowered by 26,600.
Big mistake?
If you think all these revisions reveal incompetence by job counters, note the comparable size of the revisions measured against the total number of workers.
Nationally, the revision equaled just 0.1% of all U.S. jobs. California’s revision represented only 0.2% of all workers statewide.
What can make the revisions look more extreme is comparing them with historical job swings – a data point with economic and political significance.
California’s upward revision of 43,000 equals 23% of the state’s 10-year average hiring pace. The nation’s 79,000 cut, however, is only 5% of historic annual job growth.
Locally speaking
Estimated revisions were also reported for 56 U.S. metropolitan areas, including seven in California.
The region comprising Los Angeles and Orange counties saw the state’s largest increase from the revisions, adding 51,300 jobs. That’s the second-biggest jump nationally, adding 0.8% more jobs.
Higher staffing levels help explain a host of local economic trends, from stubbornly high home prices and rents to the crowding of freeways and shopping centers. Previous data showed L.A.-Orange County jobs growing by only 21,000 in the year ended in March.
The others, ranked by size of the revision:
– San Francisco: Revision added 15,200 jobs, No. 5 largest nationally, or a 0.6% increase.
– Sacramento: Added 9,500 jobs, No. 7 nationally, or a 0.9% increase.
– Inland Empire: Added 9,400 jobs, No. 9 nationally, or a 0.5% increase.
– Fresno: Added 3,400 jobs, No. 27 nationally, or a 0.8% increase.
– San Jose: Added 2,700 jobs, No. 30 nationally, or a 0.2% increase.
– San Diego: Cut 4,000 jobs, No. 46 nationally, or a 0.3% decrease.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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