Seven months ago, the path of California state politics – particularly Southern California – seemed straightforward.
Governor Gavin Newsom – term limited and long rumored to be interested in a White House bid – would make his move and be replaced by a Democrat, most likely former VP Kamala Harris.
Similarly, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass was “on the path to an easy reelection, with no serious challengers in sight” according to the LA Times.
Now, however, the picture has changed drastically.
The biggest shock came on Wednesday, when former Harris announced that she would not be entering the race for Governor.
That news blew open the race to replace Newsom, as it had been expected that Harris’ entry would clear the field, which is now wide open.
Consider that in the most recent UCI-OC poll from UC Irvine, roughly two thirds of California voters either backed Harris (24%) or were undecided (40%). The next closest candidate was Rick Caruso (9%), who was not even in double digits.
Quite simply, the race for California’s next Governor is entirely up for grabs, a shocking development less than one year from the primary.
Zooming out, with California set to host the World Cup, the next two Super Bowls, and the 2028 Summer Olympics, the eyes of the country, and indeed the world, will be on the Golden State.
Whoever is in charge at the state and local level will have a tremendous impact on the future of the state, health of California’s economy, and more.
The first shoe to fall for Bass were the devastating wildfires that rocked Los Angeles, for which Bass was widely harangued.
Starting with criticism for being out of the country when the fires began, Bass then attempted to pin the blame on fire chief Kristin Crowley, angering the firefighters union as well as people deeply sympathetic to the firefighters’ heroic efforts to battle the blazes.
Then in the spring, Los Angeles reported a $1 billion budget shortfall which City Controller Kenneth Mejia reportedly told Bass – as far back as least 2023 – was due to chronic overspending, not the fires.
Los Angeles and its Mayor were back in the national spotlight again earlier this summer, when protests against immigration enforcement rocked the city.
President Trump arguably exacerbated the issue by bringing in U.S. Marines and 4,000 National Guard members, but all of it contributed to a feeling that Bass was simply not up for the job – something reflected in polls.
Indeed, on the eve of the November 2022 elections, a U.C. Berkeley poll found that one-half of LA residents had a favorable view of Bass, versus slightly more than one-third (35%) who had unfavorable views.
That same poll conducted this May revealed almost a complete reversal. Now, just 32% of Angelenos held a favorable view of the Mayor, while 50% viewed her unfavorably.
Bass’ growing vulnerability may open the door for an actual contender.
Perhaps her 2022 opponent Rick Caruso wants a rematch, and there has been speculation about county Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, although Horvath “would position herself to the left of the mayor” thus is likely fighting an uphill battle.
Could Caruso pose a credible challenge?
The businessman, who spent more than $40 million of his own money, and more than $100 million overall, before ultimately losing by nearly 10-points, received a considerable amount of positive coverage for his efforts during the fires, and he may try to capitalize on that.
To that end, Caruso has publicly attacked Bass over rebuilding and homelessness in recent months, potentially laying the groundwork for a renewed challenge, although he’s remained mum.
Of course, he’d have to overcome one of the biggest issues from the 2022 campaign – perceptions that he remains a Republican and only became a Democrat for political expediency.
Then there’s Gavin Newsom, whose national ambitions have been among politics’ worst kept secrets.
After a bump in his polls earlier this year coinciding with the LA fires and opposition to Trump, sentiment has turned against his handling of the state.
Just 3-in-10 Californians believe the state is on the “right track” versus 60% – including nearly two-thirds (64%) of Independents – who say the state is headed in the wrong direction, per UC Irvine.
And while this has taken a toll on Newsom’s approval ratings – just 38% – there is a very real chance that it also impacts both Newsom’s successor, as well as his presidential ambitions.
Harris’ decision not to run has certainly opened the door for other contenders like Caruso or Porter, but both have their challenges, and neither may be influential enough to push through policies the state desperately needs.
With that in mind, Newsom’s declining popularity, combined with increasing pessimism at the state’s current politicians may reverberate throughout the ballot.
The same UC Irvine poll showed that California Republicans remain deeply supportive of Trump and the GOP.
Roughly one-quarter of California’s voters are Republican – an increase of a few hundred thousand voters since 2020 – which could be enough to force a runoff between Porter and Caruso, particularly if Republicans feel that he is the most viable candidate close enough to the GOP.
If that seems unlikely, consider the race to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein, where Republican Steve Garvey advanced to the runoff against now-Senator Adam Schiff.
On a much smaller scale, this right-ward shift has shown up in San Francisco and in the 2024 election, yet it’s unclear to what extent there will be follow through in the 2026 elections.
Ultimately, as the nation’s largest and richest state, California politics remain worth watching, even if the state writ large can hardly be considered a barometer of the national electorate.
This is even more so given the aforementioned national and international events coming to the Golden State, for which the next mayor of LA and governor will be responsible for overseeing.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.