California optimism continues to rise, while pessimism brews nationally.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indexes to see how the three months through July compared with the previous year and optimism swings since 2007. It found California confidence was up 5% over the past year and only 3% below average.
That buoyancy might raise some eyebrows, given that the world is on edge, with a war in Iran rattling the economy and rekindling inflation. And let’s not forget the political guessing game: Come 2027, who will run Congress and who will be California’s next governor?
So, what exactly goes into this confidence index recipe?
First up is California’s present situation index, which takes the temperature of how things feel right now. It’s slipped 2% over the past year. In other words, the economy is giving off a “meh” vibe.
But since this index is still 8% above its 20-year average, California shoppers can see the business climate is holding up better than it may feel.
The other slice of the confidence index shows Californians are curiously upbeat about the future.
The expectations index – gauging thoughts on what’s ahead – is decidedly bullish: Up 13% in a year. But that’s off serious lows, as the measure remains 12% below its 20-year average.
Look, wars always push up skittishness, and high gasoline prices hurt the wallet – if not the economic psyche.
But Golden State confidence may be tied to California’s bosses, who were adding jobs slowly but far faster than the rest of the nation in early 2026.
Look, we’re talking about the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to one count, where business output was booming as a flood of venture capital revitalized the state’s tech industry.
Yet given the big gap between President Donald Trump’s focus on homegrown economics and California’s eyes on the world, these good economic vibes from the Golden State are a real surprise.
Nationally speaking
Across the country, American consumers seem jittery.
The U.S. consumer confidence index is down 6% over the past year to a level 1% below the average grade since 2007.
Clearly, Americans are unhappy with current conditions. The nationwide present situation index is off 12% in a year. However, it sits 11% above its 20-year average.
But don’t expect a quick turnaround. The U.S. expectation index has barely budged, up just 1% over the past year, and it’s still 11% below average.
Others’ optimism
None of the other seven states the Conference Board tracks saw a mid-2026 optimism boost like California’s.
Here’s how those states stack up on confidence swings, both recent and compared with their usual mood, ranked by one-year change through July:
– New York: Up 1% in a year and 21% above average.
– Illinois: Flat in a year and 16% above average.
– Pennsylvania: Flat in a year and 7% above average.
– Texas: Off 4% in a year and 6% below average.
– Florida: Off 8% in a year but 4% above average.
– Michigan: Off 8% in a year but 19% above average.
– Ohio: Off 16% in a year and 7% below average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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