LOS ANGELES — Analytics models are not buying the Blackhawks‘ improvement this season. That mostly stems from the fact that the Hawks, albeit visibly more competitive, still don’t possess the puck much.
They’ve spent 39.5% of game time with the puck in the offensive zone, which is the fourth-lowest percentage in the NHL and barely higher than last season (38.8%). They’ve also attempted 162 fewer shots during five-on-five play than their opponents, the seventh-worst differential in the league. Their 45.7% expected-goals ratio ranks 27th.
Yet the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents 59-57 (during five-on-five play) despite that lack of possession time largely because of efficiency. They’ve scored on 5.1% of their shot attempts, the fourth-highest rate in the league, while their opponents have scored on 4.3% of their attempts, the 14th-lowest rate.
That leads to an important question: is that efficiency sustainable? Most models assume it is not. But in some cases, it can be. The Capitals, for example, have consistently outperformed mediocre projections (based on mediocre possession rates) for years now.
And the Hawks can make a legitimate argument that their efficiency is by design, not by fluke.
It starts with goalie Spencer Knight, whose .919 save percentage — tied for fourth in the league — is obviously the No. 1 reason why Hawks opponents have scored on such a low percentage of their shots.
Although this marks a breakthrough season for Knight, his age, pedigree and talent suggest he has an opportunity to permanently cement himself as one of the league’s best goalies.
The Hawks also happen to have one of the league’s most talented shooters in Connor Bedard, whose unique, quick, deceptive and accurate release makes life very difficult for goalies.
There’s no reason to believe that’s going to change. Bedard’s 18.8% shooting percentage this season (a stat calculated based on shots on goal rather than shot attempts) is way above the league average for forwards of 12.8%.
Beyond Bedard, two historically efficient scorers also hold key roles in the Hawks’ forward corps. Tyler Bertuzzi’s shooting percentage is 15.0% for his career and 20.1% as a Hawk; he knows how to get to the net and score in dirty areas. Andre Burakovsky’s shooting percentage is 13.5%; he’s an accurate sniper.
The roster composition is one ingredient. Another ingredient is the Hawks’ system. They’re cleverly taking advantage of their composition by minimizing the frequency of blocked shots — in both directions — thanks to coach Jeff Blashill’s systems.
They’ve blocked only 25.2% of opponents’ shot attempts (during five-on-five play), the lowest rate in the league. And they’ve also gotten only 25.2% of their own attempts blocked, the second-lowest rate in the league.
In other words, they’re intentionally giving their goalies — usually Knight — clean sight lanes with minimal traffic to see the puck and make the save, and they’re counting on their finishers to beat inferior opposing goalies. The strategy is at least somewhat intentional.
“Some teams kind of front shots, especially with their ‘D,’ and some teams box out,” Blashill said recently. “We’re a box-out [team], so you’re not going to get a lot of those secondary blocks. Can we get better at our wingers blocking? Probably.”
Defenseman Louis Crevier called it a “big change” from years past, when they were a “fronting” team. Matt Grzelcyk explained the ideology well: “As D-men, you want to give [the goalie] a chance to not flash in front of them at the last second. So if you’re going to block it, be really committed to it.”
Some regression will likely come for the Hawks eventually. They may not be able to continue outscoring their opposition for 82 games.
But they’re also probably better than the models realize. They’ve established an identity and strategy that the models don’t fully appreciate.
Blashill’s view
Blashill is a big believer in scoring chances — rather than shot attempts or shots on goal — as the most relevant way to measure the Hawks’ performance in every game. He brings them up often.
Most people would agree with him, too. It stands to logic that one shot from the slot, for example, is better than three shots from the perimeter.
The problem is the Hawks don’t grade very well in terms of scoring chances according to Natural Stat Trick, the most popular public model. Their 45.8% scoring-chance ratio ranks 30th in the league, and their 44.1% high-danger scoring-chance ratio ranks 28th.
Blashill’s response? Public models don’t measure scoring chances very well. The Hawks’ internally calculated analytics rank them “decently better than that,” Blashill said Friday.
For example, Natural Stat Trick had scoring chances favoring the Hawks 29-26 on Thursday against the Kings, whereas the Hawks’ model calculated a much larger advantage. Blashill said that’s because the Hawks have a much stricter definition of a scoring chance, leading to smaller but more precise numbers both for and against.
“It’s much more stringent than what the public model is,” Blashill said. “A lot of times, in some of those public models, [scoring chances are] another version of shots. If you out-shoot them, you get more scoring chances because they’re giving the scoring chances easier grades.”