De La Salle will breeze to its 33rd consecutive North Coast Section championship, according to our insiders.
Hardly shocking. The Spartans haven’t lost to an NCS opponent in 34 years.
But will Pittsburg win a fifth consecutive NCS Division I title?
Nope, says Christian Babcock and the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat’s Gus Morris, who graciously accepted our offer to pick champions in each of the NCS’s eight playoff divisions, joining Babcock and Darren Sabedra.
Morris and Babcock are taking North Bay powerhouse Cardinal Newman to win NCS D-I.
On the Central Coast Section side, Mike Lefkow joined Babcock and Sabedra to predict winners in each of the six divisions.
“Boy, this is another tough one,” Lefkow said as he tried to narrow down his options.
Here are the picks:
North Coast Section
Open/Division I (Open winner)
Babcock: De La Salle. Next.
Morris: No. 1 De La Salle over No. 2 Pittsburg. The Spartans look as good as ever and I don’t think anyone in NorCal is stopping them this season. Pittsburg has lost to De La Salle in five Open/Division 1 title games since 2017 and I don’t see that streak ending this year. De La Salle by a few touchdowns.
Sabedra: De La Salle is faster, stronger and better than it was last season, when it captured its 32nd consecutive section championship with a 10-7 victory over Pittsburg in the Open final. We’ll assume there will be a rematch, and it won’t be as tight as last year. Give me De La Salle.
Final tally: De La Salle (Babcock, Morris, Sabedra).
Open/Division I (D-I winner)
Babcock: This is a good one. Put me down for Cardinal Newman, which has steadily improved throughout the year.
Morris: No. 3 Cardinal Newman over No. 2 Pittsburg. My North Bay homerism might be showing here, but I’d be hard pressed to find a team playing better than Cardinal Newman right now. The Cardinals are turning into the team many thought they would be at the start of the year. Their defense has been stellar all season and now their offense is starting to click. I think Newman takes down Pitt for the Division 1 title.
Sabedra: Pittsburg has won four consecutive NCS Division I titles since the section began dropping its Open runner-up into the D-I final. The past two seasons, the Pirates survived tight championship games with San Ramon Valley. This season, it could be Cardinal Newman or perhaps Acalanes waiting in the final. It’ll be a challenge, but we’re sticking with Pittsburg.
Final tally: Cardinal Newman (Babcock, Morris). Pittsburg (Sabedra).
Division II
Babcock: I could see any of the EBAL Mountain teams, plus Campo or Clayton Valley winning this one. This division is absolutely stacked. So much of this will come down to which team is healthiest and/or has the depth and toughness needed to survive. Kevin Macy is probably not thrilled to be in Division II, but I think this team could get him a title. I’m going with the Cougars.
Morris: No. 7 Amador Valley over No. 4 Clayton Valley Charter in the final. With all eight teams in this bracket separated by just 10 spots in the NCS rankings, I think this division is wide open. I’m picking Amador Valley because of its hot play of late. The Dons beat Cal and Monte Vista the last two weeks to make the playoffs. It might be tough to beat both those teams again in the coming weeks, but the Dons have gotten healthy at the right time and I wouldn’t be surprised if they play spoiler.
Sabedra: Top-seeded Campolindo has a win this season over second-seeded Monte Vista, which has a win this season over third-seeded California. Throw in the fact that Campo’s Kevin Macy is one of the section’s all-time great coaches – particularly in the postseason – I’m taking the Cougars.
Final tally: Amador Valley (Morris). Campolindo (Babcock, Sabedra).
Division III
Babcock: I think Rancho Cotate is in a good spot in this bracket. If the No. 2 Cougars can survive their trip to No. 7 James Logan in the first round – no small task – I like them to come out that side of the bracket and knock off Vintage, avenging a 10-7 loss from the regular season.
Morris: No. 3 El Cerrito over No. 5 Ukiah in the final. This bracket is also pretty ripe for upsets with seeds 1-6 separated by six spots in the NCS rankings. Ukiah has played a tough schedule and has talented pieces under legendary North Bay coach Paul Cronin. However, the Wildcats are a bad matchup for El Cerrito’s speed and athleticism.
Sabedra: Top-seeded Vintage limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak and has scored just 13 points in those losses. Third-seeded El Cerrito, no doubt dinged by the computer because of a softer schedule in the TCAL Rock, has won seven in a row. Give me El Cerrito.
Final tally: Rancho Cotate (Babcock). El Cerrito (Morris, Sabedra).
Division IV
Babcock: Hayward has been a pleasant surprise all season, and I don’t see that stopping now. The Farmers will almost always have the best player on the field in running back Maurice Hall, and that counts for a lot this time of year – especially at that position.
Morris: No. 2 Benicia over No. 1 Hayward in the final. I’ll admit I’m not as knowledgeable on the teams in this division but many small school coaches I spoke to this year were very wary of Benicia, which could have ended up in Division 5 or Division 6. I think this bracket played out pretty chalky, with Benicia beating top-seeded Hayward in the title game.
Sabedra: Top-seeded Hayward’s three losses were to San Ramon Valley, American Canyon and Windsor, all by multiple scores. None of the three is in the D-IV bracket. Second-seeded Benicia is a threat, so is third-seeded Miramonte. But I’m taking Hayward.
Final tally: Benicia (Morris). Hayward (Babcock, Sabedra).
Division V
Babcock: Think I said this last year, but St. Vincent de Paul continues to wind up in a lower division as the clear favorite in the field. I don’t see things playing out differently this year.
Morris: No. 1 St. Vincent de Paul over No. 2 Ferndale. St. Vincent is on the hunt for its third straight state title but are dealing with some injuries to key players. Ferndale just broke the regular season state scoring record but could have a tough second-round game against Salesian. At the end of the day, St. Vincent just has more talent than Ferndale, but this title game could be electric.
Sabedra: Top-seeded St. Vincent de Paul won Division V last season and Division VI two years ago. There is no reason to believe the Petaluma school won’t make it three section titles in a row this season. Give me St. Vincent de Paul.
Final tally: St. Vincent de Paul (Babcock, Morris, Sabedra).
Division VI
Babcock: Speaking of mismatches, this is a classic competitive equity special. O’Dowd is a very good team that had one bad performance against Logan, and now the Dragons find themselves in Division VI with a prime opportunity to run the table. I’m not picking against them.
Morris: No. 3 Bishop O’Dowd over No. 5 Petaluma. Petaluma has rushed for over 450 yards in its last two games and is heading into the postseason as winner of four of its last five games. I don’t think St. Bernard’s is a very strong 1 seed but two trips to Mendocino County could be tough for the Trojans. The biggest thing for me is the strength of schedule Bishop O’Dowd has played. I think the Dragons are the best team in this division.
Sabedra: Is top-seeded St. Bernard’s vulnerable? Well, the Eureka school lost to fourth-seeded Fortuna 26-18 on Nov. 1, a team St. Bernard’s beat 26-22 on Oct. 11. Yes, they’ve played twice. And, yes, St. Bernard’s is no lock. We’re taking the third seed in this bracket, Bishop O’Dowd.
Final tally: Bishop O’Dowd (Babcock, Morris, Sabedra).
Division VII
Babcock: I think this division will come down to Middletown and Piedmont. I could see either team winning, but I’ll lean with the North Bay team in this one.
Morris: No. 1 Middletown over No. 3 Willits. This bracket features the biggest disparity in ranking between the 1 and 2 seeds (eight). The top-seeded Mustangs also already beaten both No. 2 seed Piedmont (32-17) and No. 3 seed Willits (22-9) this season. Middletown is one of the most consistent small school programs in the North Bay and I think they should easily win this section title game over their league opponent.
Sabedra: Sixth-seeded Redwood Christian is a nice story, given that the East Bay school just started its varsity program last year. But we don’t think it’s ready to hoist a section championship trophy. So we’re taking a team with another cool story – Piedmont. The second-seeded Highlanders paused their varsity program a couple of years ago, but the team is back now.
Final tally: Middletown (Babcock, Morris). Piedmont (Sabedra).
Central Coast Section
Open/Division I (Open winner)
Babcock: I really think Serra is poised to give Riordan an even better game than the teams just played last Friday. But Riordan has so many more paths to victory, and I think it will ultimately find one. Give me the Crusaders in another classic.
Lefkow: This is a tough one. I am going to take Serra. Even though Archbishop Riordan probably has better overall personnel, I think Serra’s playoff experience will make a little bit of a difference in this one. Serra had ‘em on the ropes in the first game. You’re playing them again so soon after the first game. I think Serra has a little bit more playoff experience. They have been in these types of games before.
Sabedra: If Serra couldn’t beat Riordan at home under the lights, I have my doubts that the Padres can reverse the script on a neutral field two weeks later. This is the year Riordan was built for, and the San Francisco school will add to its trophy case with an Open title.
Final tally: Riordan (Babcock, Sabedra). Serra (Lefkow).
Open/Division I (D-I winner)
Babcock: If Serra doesn’t pull off the Open, I have to side with the Padres in D-I. They have a level of physicality that I’m not sure any of the non-Riordan teams can match, and they can come at you in waves with their depth. Los Gatos could prove a worthy challenger, but I’m not seeing the Cats pulling off the upset this time around. That was last year.
Lefkow: I think Riordan will win CCS Division I. They have the best personnel in the section. I don’t think they’ll lose two in a row. If Riordan drops down, they’ll win Division I.
Sabedra: Serra will return to a NorCal regional after it wins the CCS Division I title. The Padres are very good this season. They’ll be even better next year.
Final tally: Serra (Babcock, Sabedra). Riordan (Lefkow).
Division II
Babcock: I’m tempted to pick No. 7 seed Wilcox to pull off a shocker in this bracket, but I don’t think I’m all the way there yet. I reserve the right to change my mind based on the forthcoming results. For now, I’m going to roll with Sacred Heart Cathedral, the Chargers’ first-round opponent. I anticipate that will be a close opener. If SHC survives, I like its offense to carry the team all the way to the title game and maybe get revenge against St. Ignatius in the final.
Lefkow: I am going to go with Santa Teresa. They’re the No. 3 seed, but they’re 10-0. They’re a good football team. They’ve got some pretty good players. I realize that St. Ignatius and Sacred Heart Cathedral are 1 and 2, respectively. But I just can’t get past those 4-6 records. I think if there was ever a year an underdog-type team might be able to pull it off, I think this Santa Teresa team might be it.
Sabedra: St. Ignatius has a couple of nice wins down the stretch, including a victory last week over rival Sacred Heart Cathedral in the Bruce-Mahoney game. I don’t think this team is finished. SI, which last season won the Open title, captures D-I this time with a younger squad.
Final tally: SHC (Babcock). Santa Teresa (Lefkow). St. Ignatius (Sabedra).
Division III
Babcock: Woodside has been arguably the surprise team of the year in CCS, and I don’t see that stopping now. I think this Wildcats team will win the school’s first section title since 2004, when the Cats won the CCS Medium Division title with Julian Edelman at quarterback.
Lefkow: Boy, this is another tough one. I am going to lean toward the favorite, Woodside. I think they’re in a real tough competition in this division because I think you look at teams like Live Oak, King City, Carmel and, you know, Menlo-Atherton played very well at the end of the season. But Woodside is 10-0. Let’s see if they can keep it up.
Sabedra: I am going out on a limb here, but Menlo-Atherton’s defense found something in its 14-7 victory over Wilcox last week. The Bears have had some bad losses, to the likes of Acalanes, Mitty and Los Gatos. But wins over Wilcox and SHP are impressive. Give me M-A.
Final tally: Woodside (Babcock, Lefkow). Menlo-Atherton (Sabedra).
Division IV
Babcock: To me, this comes down to what you want to bet on: best player (Lincoln’s Kyan Phillips), best offense (probably Branham), or best overall team (your guess is as good as mine). You can debate any of those, but I’m going to lean with the Bruins given they are set up for two home games.
Lefkow: That first-round matchup between Christopher and Branham is interesting. I almost want to pick the team that wins that game to go all the way. I’ll say Branham. I realize they’re only 5-5. I am not sure there is another team in there that can beat them in a playoff situation. I like this Branham team. I think they have good personnel.
Sabedra: Branham finished last in the BVAL’s strongest division, the Mt. Hamilton, and lost to Lincoln-San Jose 35-25 along the way. Branham is the top seed in this bracket, Lincoln the third. I’m going with what happened on the field. Lincoln wins this bracket.
Final tally: Branham (Babcock, Lefkow). Lincoln-San Jose (Sabedra).
Division V
Babcock: Sobrato had another strong year in the BVAL Santa Teresa-Valley, and I’m going to pick the Bulldogs to win a section title. But the most intriguing storyline in this bracket is PAL Lake champion No. 4 Jefferson, which I think has a legit chance to hoist the hardware in three weeks.
Lefkow: I think I’ll go with Piedmont Hills. They’re the No. 1 seed. I did the preview for the El Camino Division with South San Francisco and Terra Nova. I like Terra Nova. I like their coaching staff. I think they’re the team that could pull off the surprise. But for now, I’ll stick with Piedmont Hills.
Sabedra: Kelly King Jr. led Leland to a championship in this division last season. He makes it two in a row this season as the first-year Piedmont Hills coach leads the Pirates to the title.
Final tally: Sobrato (Babcock). Piedmont Hills (Lefkow, Sabedra).