LAS VEGAS — On Monday afternoon in Boston, Sam Panayotovich interrupted his text messaging with Jordan Lynch, the football coach at his alma mater, Mount Carmel High in Chicago, to dig into the NFL.
The Caravan have been aiming for their fifth state championship under Lynch’s guidance, but Panayotovich’s inquiries turned to the Bears.
He called up the Vikings’ 2022 season at Pro Football Reference and counted 11 one-score triumphs.
“Eleven-and-0 in one-score games,” Panayotovich said. “That’s a good parallel to [coach] Ben Johnson, in his first year with the Bears. That was Kevin O’Connell’s first year in Minnesota, and they won every close game.”
The Giants eventually beat the Vikings in a wild-card playoff game.
At 6-3, the Bears might be the NFL’s surprise squad this season. Last Sunday, they won their fourth one-score game, 24-20, at home against the Giants.
“They’re way ahead of schedule,” Panayotovich said. “A lot has broken their way, but it isn’t easy to win games in this league. Just ask [former Bears coaches] Marc Trestman and Matt Nagy.”
Now, though, the road becomes much tougher. According to one savvy handicapper with whom I chat often, the Bears have the third-toughest slate the rest of the way.
“No doubt, that’s why they’re still dogs to make the playoffs,” Panayotovich said. “They’ll be underdogs in a lot of their remaining games, which is why they’re plus-175 to make the playoffs.”
A risk of $100, say, to win $175.
“They’ve got their work cut out for them for sure,” Panayotovich said. “But if this quarterback [Caleb Williams] keeps playing the way he’s playing, and they keep believing the coach, Johnson has them believing that if they’re close late, they can win.
“It’s been a long time since a coach has had this team believing like that.”
About that 8½
Late last Sunday on Long Island, handicapper Tom Barton, on the “HeatWave” weekend sports-betting show he co-hosts on Fox Sports Radio in Las Vegas, noted the Bears’ universal preseason projected wins total of 8½. The lifelong Bears fan trumpeted their success, but even he eventually tempered his enthusiasm. He said holders of such over tickets will be itching and sweating over the next two months.
Eights were out there.
“If anyone got [eight wins], they’ve got to feel good,” he said. “But there is only one more gimme game. I think they win 10, but if that defense doesn’t step up, they could lose some tough ones.”
Barton spotlighted the injuries that have so affected the Bears’ defense, most notably cornerback Jaylon Johnson, whom he called a top-five NFL corner.
“Legitimately, that’s their three best defensive players,” Barton said. “And five starters.”
Legit Odunze
Panayotovich, who writes for Fox Sports, already has won one of his Bears prop bets — that second-year wide receiver Rome Odunze would catch more than 5½ touchdown passes this season. Odunze collected five in his first four games, then made Panayotovich squirm a tad, as he didn’t snatch his sixth until Sunday against the Giants.
Sammy’s juiciest risk involved Odunze accumulating more than 850½ receiving yards. Through Sunday, he had 559, an average (62.1) that extrapolates to 1,056 yards for the year.
Not exactly someone who disbelieves in jinxes, I had hesitated texting Sammy about Odunze’s successes.
“But I don’t believe in that stuff, not at all,” he said of superstitions. “Odunze is their best player, weapon-wise, and their best playmaker. I’ll need a little under 300 reception yards in eight games as long as he stays healthy.”
He laughed.
“He’s too talented to stay under these [projected] numbers,” Panayotovich said. “Last year, it was 650½ [he went for 734]. That must be 1,000, going forward. He can catch any ball, is a great route-runner . . . they got a good one here.
“They have had a lot of [highly drafted] receivers over the years, and Kevin White comes to mind. What a bust. But this guy’s a legitimate No. 1 selection.”
First to 4,000?
In another development, Williams — in his second NFL season and first under Johnson, the celebrated offensive coordinator from the Lions — might set himself apart from every other Bears signal-caller. In the franchise’s rich history, no quarterback has thrown for 4,000 yards in a season. Through Sunday, Williams had 2,136.
At a 237.3 average, he’ll hit 4,034 for the year.
“That’s awesome,” Barton said. “It would be such a psychological edge for Bears fans.”
Last week, DraftKings posted a season-total yardage figure for Williams at 3,650½, over at -125.
Tough road
As Panayotovich said, the schedule stiffens considerably the rest of the way. In points-per-play defense, a Metric I prize, the ranking of Chicago’s first nine opponents
totaled 214, an average of 23.8. The rest of its schedule totals 100, a 12½ average.
That tightens considerably over the Bears’ final six games; at the Eagles, at the Packers, vs. the Browns, vs. the Packers, at the 49ers and vs. the Lions.
“The Bears are very well-coached, but I’m still very skeptical of Williams,” said professional bettor Chuck Edel, a Chicago native and longtime Vegas resident. “They’ve been very fortunate, with a weak schedule. The combined record of the past five opponents they’ve beaten is 12-36. And I am on the Vikings this week.”
The Bears play in Minneapolis, where the Vikings are favored by three points. This century, the Bears are 8-17 in Minnesota.
So far, they have played only one team that currently has a winning record: the 6-3 Lions (a 52-21 loss). Only two opponents the rest of the way have losing records, and the Bears already have lost to one of them, the Vikings, 27-24 at home in Week 1.
Edel confirmed he’ll bet against the Bears in certain spots the rest of the way
“I think they will struggle with good defenses,” he said.
The horseshoe squad
At the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN), senior broadcaster/writer Matt Youmans is 4-1 in wagers involving Bears games.
He bet on the Bears at Washington and against them with the Vikings, Lions, Raiders and Giants, in which he got 4½ points.
“It’s always important in the NFL to win the close games and be on the right side of injury luck — and luck in general,” Youmans said. “And the Bears have done all of that while having a horseshoe . . . in close games. The Giants, for example, have been on the wrong side of all that.”
With a plus-1.6 turnover margin that tops the NFL, the Bears certainly have been fortunate. If that stands, it would be the largest team margin since 2011, when the 49ers had a plus-1.7.
“The luck in close games is probably due to the coaching upgrade with Ben Johnson,” Youmans added. “I like what he’s doing with the offense and Williams for the most part. But this does remind me of Matt Nagy’s fluke first year, when he went 12-4 with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback.”
Youmans, an Indiana native, honed in on the rest of the schedule.
“The Bears have been lucky as hell to win four games they should have lost,” he said. “Regression should hit soon. I will look to bet against them on the road at Philadelphia, Green Bay and San Francisco.”