Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 6-5. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
The first matchup within an unusual arrangement will unfold in completely conventional fashion. No tricks. No complications. Nothing as odd as the home-and-home series itself.
Washington State will smother Oregon State on Saturday afternoon in the first of two November matchups between the Pac-12 holdovers.
The Beavers are marginally better than they looked under coach Trent Bray, who was fired after an 0-7 start. But they aren’t nearly good enough to handle WSU. Or the point spread.
The Cougars are favored by 3.5 points, but the betting line should be twice that amount. And it would be if you simply remove two quarters from their season — two quarters that have zero relevance to the current state of play.
WSU has allowed 197 points thus far, or 24.6 per game, which is 73rd in major college football. Middle-of-the-pack territory.
But 56 points have come in two disastrous quarters when they allowed 28 in each: The fourth against Washington and the second against North Texas.
In other words, 28.4 percent of the points allowed by WSU’s defense have come in 6.3 percent of the quarters played.
In the other 30 quarters, including four each against No. 7 Mississippi and No. 15 Virginia, the Cougars have allowed a total of 141 points, or 4.7 per quarter.
That quarterly total multiplied by four adds up to 18.8 points per game, which would rank 24th nationally and offer an entirely different perspective on Saturday’s matchup. The point spread would not be 3.5 points but, rather, closer to a touchdown.
We aren’t suggesting the Cougars (4-4) would have beaten Washington and North Texas if you removed those two epically poor quarters.
We are suggesting the fourth against UW and the second against North Texas are not remotely relevant to how WSU matches up with the Beavers (1-7).
The Huskies have next-level talent compared to OSU and, when in rhythm, possess one of the most dynamic offenses anywhere. (They are averaging 35.5 points per game. The Beavers are averaging 21.1.)
Nor does the Cougar collapse against North Texas have any connection to this weekend because their quarterbacks had three turnovers in those forgettable 15 minutes and none of them were committed by the quarterback who will start in Corvallis.
Zevi Eckhaus is QB1, as he has been for the past five games. Had coach Jimmy Rogers named Eckhaus the starter prior to the season — as he clearly should have — the trip to North Texas might have turned out differently.
Regardless, the two terrible quarters skewing WSU’s defensive statistics have zero connection to the defensive performance in every other quarter this season.
The Cougars held Mississippi, which scored 35 points against Georgia and 34 against Oklahoma, to 24.
They held Virginia, which scored 30 against Louisville, to 22.
They shut down San Diego State, which is currently ripping through the Mountain West.
They came close to shutting out Toledo, which is in the middle of the MAC.
Removed two irrelevant quarters from the data used by Las Vegas oddsmakers and the Cougars would be favored by considerably more than 3.5 points.
They will win by considerably more, as well.
To the picks …
Season record: 46-48-1Five-star special: 4-5
(All times Pacific)
Vanderbilt (+2.5) at TexasKickoff: 9 a.m. on ABCComment: The Commodores are 6-2 against the spread this season and just beat LSU and Missouri in consecutive games. The Longhorns are 2-6 against the spread and fresh off narrow wins over lowly Kentucky and Mississippi State. No reason to over-think the situation. Pick: Vanderbilt
ASU (+7.5) at Iowa StateKickoff: 10 a.m. on TNTComment: Both teams are coming off gut-punch losses to Houston (ASU) and BYU (Iowa State) and in danger of becoming irrelevant in the Big 12 race. But only one — the home team — will have its starting quarterback available Saturday. We would feel better if the spread was a flat 7 but will side with the Cyclones anyhow. Pick: Iowa State
Fresno State (+17.5) at Boise StateKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1Comment: The Hotline is convinced first-year coach Matt Entz will guide the Bulldogs to better days. But they are struggling at the moment with back-to-back lopsided losses, and Boise State is rolling. Pick: Boise State
Pittsburgh (-14.5) at StanfordKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC NetworkComment: Stanford is undefeated at home with wins over Boston College, San Jose State and Florida State. Granted, the Panthers represent a higher level of competition, but it’s a long trip and they are headed into a bye week (with Notre Dame on the other side of their break). Feels like a trap for the visitors. Pick: Stanford
Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas StateKickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FoxComment: Quarterback Behren Morton is expected back from injury this week as the Red Raiders take a dangerous trip to Manhattan, where KSU has gained traction following its slow start. Adding to the challenge: Texas Tech has a showdown with undefeated BYU next week and could be in peek-ahead mode. Pick: Kansas State
Virginia (-4.5) at CalKickoff: 12:45 p.m. on ESPN2Comment: The Hotline typically sides with the Bears as underdogs, especially at home, but we have seen too little from them in recent weeks to have any faith they can execute effectively on either side of the ball. The Cavaliers are 10 points better than any of the teams that have given Cal fits lately. Pick: Virginia
Arizona (-4.5) at ColoradoKickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1Comment: There are more reasons to favor Arizona than Colorado. But we can’t pick the Wildcats to win on the road in conference play until we see them win on the road in conference play, no matter how bad the opponent looked last week. (And the Buffaloes looked bad.). Pick: Colorado
Washington State (-3.5) at Oregon StateKickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBSComment: We suspect the Beavers will switch quarterbacks, from Maalik Murphy to Gabarri Johnson, who played well against Lafayette. (Interim coach Robb Akey was non-committal when asked earlier this week.) That could complicate matters for WSU, at least for the first half. Pick: Washington State
USC (-6.5) at NebraskaKickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBCComment: Given how they have performed in identical situations, the Hotline isn’t sure how anyone can trust the Trojans as a road favorite across the Rockies against a quality opponent. (We certainly don’t.) Since the start of last season, they have shown an amazing knack for finding ways to lose games they should win. Pick: Nebraska
Cincinnati (+10.5) at UtahKickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPNComment: The Utes have smashed every team they have faced this season … except the good ones. Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, a frontrunner for Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, will do just enough to keep his team in the game long enough to cover a spread that feels about four points too high. Pick: Cincinnati
Straight-up winners: Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Boise State, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Virginia, Colorado, Washington State, Nebraska and Utah
Five-star special: Nebraska. Forget the point spread. The Cornhuskers (6-2) are simply better than USC and will win outright.
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