With an 8-5-3 record, the Blackhawks are off to their best start to a season since 2016. And after years of misery, you’d better bet they’re enjoying it.
“A lot of guys have grown and matured, and it’s awesome to see,” forward Ryan Donato said Tuesday after practice. “The vibe is great in the locker room. Guys are happy.”
Whether they can sustain this success in the short term is questionable, and the randomness of hockey calls for larger sample sizes before jumping to conclusions. It’s worth noting the Hawks have been outshot in 11 of their 16 games and have played just three games so far in the brutal Central Division.
However, they’re taking such a substantial step forward this season — even if they eventually fall back to earth — that their long-term outlook seems even more promising.
Many of the Hawks’ highly touted prospects haven’t reached the NHL yet, but a number of them will within the next year or two. If this season’s imperfect roster can achieve this level of competitiveness, a more fleshed-out group theoretically could build upon the baseline and turn the team into a true contender.
But how, exactly, are these Hawks so competitive? For fans who understandably might not have paid close attention to the NHL’s losingest franchise over the last half-decade, here’s a breakdown of the key factors driving the turnaround:
Bedard’s eruption
The Hawks’ cornerstone player, 20-year-old forward Connor Bedard, is playing like a bona fide superstar. Ever since the Hawks won the draft lottery in the spring of 2023, it has been clear they were going to go as far as Bedard took them. Now it’s clear he’s going very far.
Entering Tuesday, he was tied for second in the league with 25 total points and led the league with 22 primary points (a stat that excludes secondary assists). He’s riding an eight-game point streak, during which he has five multipoint games.
His shooting, playmaking, skating, vision, work ethic, defensive play, faceoff acumen and off-ice attitude have all improved substantially since last season. He shifts the momentum almost every time he hits the ice now, and he’s much less of a liability when he doesn’t have the puck.
Granted, the arrival of Andre Burakovsky and the second-year breakout of fellow forward Frank Nazar have given Bedard more help offensively than he had last season, but Bedard also is elevating the play of everyone around him.
Knight’s excellence
When the Hawks acquired Spencer Knight for defenseman Seth Jones last spring, they hoped they’d found their next franchise goaltender. At this point, they know they have.
Knight, 24, has been brilliant in his first month as a full-time NHL starter. Entering Tuesday, his .926 save percentage ranked second in the league, and the Hawks’ .922 team save percentage — factoring in backup Arvid Soderblom’s own solid play — leads the league.
Knight’s elite athleticism, lateral quickness and mental processing have prevented a ton of mistakes from burning the Hawks on the scoreboard. Putting it all together now, he’s finally living up to the expectations put upon him as the former No. 1 goalie prospect in the world.
Most analytics models, which take into account both the quality and quantity of shots Knight has faced, rate him as the league’s best goalie so far this season. And his intelligence and insightfulness, combined with his previous experience with the Stanley Cup-winning Panthers, has given the Hawks a valuable team resource off the ice, too.
Blashill’s impact
It would be easy to attribute the Hawks’ success exclusively to their elite scorer and elite goalie, but new coach Jeff Blashill deserves credit, too, even if his contributions are harder to quantify.
There has been a noticeable difference between Blashill, who brought plenty of experience from his days with the Red Wings and Lightning, and the Hawks’ last four interim and permanent coaches, all of whom were first-timers. Blashill demands more respect and exudes more confidence. His certainty in his strategies has been backed up by their effectiveness.
A high-intensity training camp this fall laid a strong foundation. With an eye for detail, Blashill identified key skills for every player to work on, then coached them to improve those skills.
His deployment of unusual lineups of 11 forwards and seven defensemen helped an extremely young defensive corps hold the fort collectively even while developing individually. Wyatt Kaiser, Louis Crevier and Artyom Levshunov have all made huge strides, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sam Rinzel eventually join them.
Blashill’s aggressive defensive-zone system also has maximized his players’ strengths, minimized weaknesses and taught them how to play like a true contender, even if they aren’t quite one yet.
Is this a playoff team?
The short answer: Likely not. Most projection models (and betting lines) still forecast the Hawks to finish among the bottom five to seven teams.
A tough test Wednesday night against the 11-4-1 Devils — the first in a stretch heavy on home games — will offer another data point. But it would take another 16-game stretch of .500-or-better hockey to begin proving this isn’t a mirage.
Until then, equal doses of curiosity and skepticism are probably warranted. Succeeding for 82 games is difficult, and in terms of experience and depth, this team falls woefully short of its competition.
Can two great players and one great coach make up the difference?
