It’s not a presidential election. Nor will California choose a new governor.
But voters will go to the polls Tuesday in California and dozens of other states, deciding everything from local tax measures to high-profile races that could impact national politics. In short, Tuesday is the most significant election in the United states since last November, experts say, when President Trump defeated the Bay Area’s Kamala Harris in the presidential race, and Republicans maintained control of the House and Senate. It’s also being viewed as a way to gauge the pulse of voters a year before the 2026 elections, when control of the House, Senate and governor’s offices will be up for grabs.
“Tuesday has become an early referendum on Trump,” said Larry Gerston, a professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University. “There are different states, different turnouts and different issues. But that’s the overall theme.”
A CNN poll Monday showed voters aren’t happy. Trump’s approval rating was 37% — the lowest of his second term. A majority of voters said his polices have worsened the economy, hurt America’s standing in the world, and that his immigration crackdown has “gone too far.” But the same voters had an even lower view of the Democratic Party, giving it just a 29% approval rating.
Five key races to watch Tuesday:
1) Proposition 50
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s statewide ballot measure, if approved by voters, would redraw California’s congressional districts in a way that could cost five Republicans their seats, tilting the state’s delegation from the current 43 Democrats and 9 Republicans to 48-4 after next year’s elections. Newsom and Sacramento Democrats placed the measure on the ballot after Trump pushed governors in red states, including Texas, to redraw their district lines this year, instead of every 10 years after the Census, as had been the custom, in an attempt to boost Republicans’ chances of keeping control of the House of Representatives next year.
If Democrats win the House in 2026, they could impeach Trump again, haul his cabinet secretaries under oath before investigations, and block funding for everything from new offshore oil drilling to expanded immigration detention centers. Republicans led by former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger — who worked hard to create California’s non-partisan commission that draws district lines — have fought Prop 50. But Democrats have outraised opponents $122 million to $44 million. Polls show the measure leading in California, a state Trump lost by 20 points last November. If it passes, Newsom’s national profile as a 2028 presidential candidate will be boosted.
2) Virginia
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin will leave office due to term limits in this purple state. Former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat and former CIA agent who has focused on cost-of-living issues, is running to succeed him against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Trump supporter and former Marine. Spanberger is leading in the polls, particularly as the federal government shutdown has hit Virginia residents hard. Whoever wins will be the first female governor in Virginia history.
A big question mark: Whether Democrat Jay Jones can hang on to beat Republican incumbent Jason Miyares in the attorney general’s race. Jones led until last month. But the National Review published text messages Jones sent to a fellow state lawmaker wishing a Republican state leader and his family would die. Jones also was cited in 2022 for driving 116 mph. As part of a plea deal, he performed 500 hours of community service for his own political action committee. His image and poll numbers have suffered.
3) New Jersey
The other marquee governor’s race Tuesday is in the Garden State, where a close battle is playing out. Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a four-term member of Congress and former Navy helicopter pilot, faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who came within 3 points of defeating incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021.
A normally reliable blue state that has voted for the Democratic nominee for president in every election since 1992, New Jersey has occasionally elected Republicans as governor, most recently Chris Christie in 2009 and 2013. Sherrill holds a narrow lead in the polls. But Harris only defeated Trump there in November by 5.9%, and Ciattarelli, with Trump’s backing and solid fundraising, is looking for a breakthrough win.
4) New York City
Three candidates are vying to run America’s most populous city: Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 67, a Democrat who won four statewide elections, only to resign his Albany office in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations; Republican Curtis Sliwa, 71, who founded the Guardian Angels crimefighting group; and state lawmaker Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist who has built momentum with charismatic speeches, clever social media and promises to raise taxes on billionaires, provide free bus service and a pass a $30 minimum wage. Mamdani, a darling of progressives nationwide, is leading in the polls, even though many traditional Democratic leaders, including Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have not endorsed him or Cuomo.
5) Pennsylvania
Few states are more important in winning the presidency than Pennsylvania. After voting for Obama twice, Keystone State voters shifted to Trump in 2016, embraced Joe Biden in 2020, and veered back to Trump last year, awarding him their 19 electoral votes.
Democrats hold a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court. Three Democratic justices — David Wecht, Christine Donohue and Kevin Dougherty — face yes-no retention votes, in which voters will decide whether to keep them on the bench. Republicans are pushing hard to remove them, which would shift the court to a 2-2 tie before elections in 2027 add new members. A deadlocked chamber could have major impacts on the 2028 presidential race if disputes over voting, ballot counting or other elections questions make it to Pennsylvania’s highest court.