With slightly better luck, the Blackhawks‘ current record could be better than 2-2-2.
It’s easy to imagine a world where Frank Nazar didn’t get robbed in overtime against the Bruins, the Hawks survived 15 more seconds to get to overtime against the Canadiens and Tyler Bertuzzi’s waved-off goal Friday counted and led to a win over the Canucks.
In that world, the Hawks could be 4-1-1 at this point and seriously raising eyebrows around the NHL. New coach Jeff Blashill has stressed that while results matter, process matters more right now, though. The fact the team’s process has been strong enough to make that alternate reality conceivable is encouraging in itself.
The Hawks remain an imperfect and inexperienced team, and six games is a small sample, so it’s too early to dramatically raise expectations for the rest of the season. But fans have good reason to feel at least cautiously optimistic about the trajectory.
Here are five broad takeaways from the Hawks’ first six games:
Respectable analytics
The Hawks have outscored opponents 15-10 during five-on-five play so far. Considering they’ve been outscored by 214 goals during five-on-five play over the last three seasons combined, that’s remarkable.
Below the surface, analytics suggest that success is unsustainable, which should come as no surprise. But their analytics are still a lot better than in past years, when they’ve usually ranked either 31st or 32nd in most categories.
They ranked 18th in expected goals per minute, 26th in expected goals allowed per minute and 26th in overall expected-goals ratio (45.8%) entering Saturday. Excluding the lopsided season opener against the Panthers, the Hawks’ expected-goals ratio climbs almost to breakeven at 49.0%, which would rank 19th.
That’s evidence that Blashill’s aggressive systems are working well and getting the most out of the personnel at his disposal. The Hawks are possessing the puck more and spending less time swamped in their defensive zone.
Iffy special teams
Last season, the Hawks’ special teams were two bright spots that helped balance out their atrocious five-on-five play (to an extent). They ranked seventh on the power play and 14th on the penalty kill despite analytics that suggested they should’ve been a lot worse in both categories.
This season, both those trends are back. They’re 4-for-19 on the power play, a 21.1% conversion rate that ranks 15th. And they’re 23-for-28 on the penalty kill, an 82.1% kill rate that also ranks 15th.
The power play has generated the fewest expected goals per minute in the league, however, and the penalty kill has allowed the third-most expected goals per minute.
The power play hasn’t looked good, struggling especially with zone entries, but they’ve somehow scored in four consecutive games.
Blashill warned the penalty kill might need a grace period to adjust to its new system, but they’ve adapted quickly (and came up clutch twice in the final minutes Friday). They are getting exhausted by a lack of discipline, though, as the Hawks lead the league in penalty minutes.
So are the Hawks extremely due for a special-teams collapse, or are they doing something unique that confuses the computer models but works in real life? Only time will tell.
Stellar goaltending
Spencer Knight’s first full season in Chicago is off to a terrific start. He has saved 110 of 119 shots in his four starts, good for a .924 save percentage that ranks seventh in the NHL.
His presence gives the Hawks a legitimate franchise goaltender for the first time since Corey Crawford. That safety net boosts the confidence of everyone playing in front of him.
“[Knight will] bail you out when you make mistakes,” Jason Dickinson said recently. “It doesn’t seem to get to him. He just keeps battling, shot after shot. Having him in there gives us reassurance that, when you mess up, you’re in good hands.”
Backup goalie Arvid Soderblom has been fine, too, despite his .881 save percentage in two starts. He finally earned a long-awaited victory in St. Louis on Wednesday after losing a bunch of crazy games there in recent years.
“It’s going to be a fun year if we can [maintain] that level, that standard,” Soderblom said.
11/7 lineups
Blashill’s affinity for 11-forward, seven-defensemen lineups has evolved from an unknown preference to an interesting quirk to a staple of his approach within two weeks.
He has done it in three consecutive games (and four of six total), and he reiterated Saturday he plans to keep doing it for the time being.
So-called “11-and-seven” lineups aren’t beloved around the league, but Blashill’s rationale — that they allow him to balance out ice time among the young defensive corps while double-shifting Nazar and Connor Bedard up front — makes sense in the Hawks’ situation.
With four right-handed defensemen dressed, Sam Rinzel and Artyom Levshunov can focus on the power play while Connor Murphy and Louis Crevier focus on the penalty kill.
Blashill runs it well, too, having learned from Lightning coach Jon Cooper how to keep line changes smooth despite the odd numbers.
“You get a feel for it a little bit,” Blashill said. “You have to really make sure you have a plan going in. You can’t get too stuck on matchups because it gets a little bit difficult then.”
Player standouts
Bedard and Nazar both have six points in six games. Teuvo Teravainen does, too, and Bertuzzi — whom Blashill elevated to the first line with Bedard and Andre Burakovsky on Saturday — is just one point behind them.
It’ll be difficult for them to maintain those rates, but the Hawks’ best forwards are certainly delivering so far.
Bedard looks like has truly leveled up, increasing his speed and playing with more of an attitude. Nazar’s rate of development is also exhilarating, although he needs to shoot more: he has just one shot on goal in the last three games.
On defense, Rinzel is one cornerstone player who has somewhat struggled early on. Expectations might’ve been too high coming in. Blashill’s system might not be a natural fit for him, either, although he did finally look more confident and reliable Friday.
“It’s a combination of figuring out the systems and playing within the system, but [also] being able to not think really out there,” Rinzel said. “Getting the habits [memorized]…helps you play more loose and free.”
Wyatt Kaiser has instead picked up the slack as the Hawks’ best defenseman so far. He constantly cleans up the messes of not only his usual partner (Levshunov) but of the entire group.
Blashill’s system plays perfectly into Kaiser’s strong suits — making quick reads and aggressively defending players one-on-one — and he looks more mature and less mistake-prone than in previous years. He has been a very pleasant surprise.