It’s a pretty simple argument to make, but the Colorado Avalanche is the best team in the NHL right now.
The Avs woke up Friday morning with the most points in the NHL (21) and the best points percentage (.750). Pretty cut and dry on the surface, but how Colorado has climbed to the top of the standings might give some people pause about making that statement.
A deeper dive into the numbers not only shows the Avs are the class of the NHL right now — emphasis on right now — but their dominance might be a little undersold at this point.
“The group has come together, guys are playing well and are committed to the systems that (Jared Bednar) has put in place,” Avs defenseman Josh Manson said. “It just feels like things are clicking pretty easily right now. We’ve even seen moments where our game has gone to, like, another level. I don’t think we’ve been at that level in the majority of the games, just some flashes of what can be. It feels like a fun group to be part of. We know it’s fun and want to keep it going.”
Let’s start simple — the record looks weird. Colorado is 8-1-5. The Avs have, officially, lost 43 percent of their games.
There are 10 teams out there with more than eight wins. Anyone who isn’t paying enough attention could see five losses after regulation and think the Avalanche has been fortunate to collect some loser points.
It’s the opposite, though. The Avs are dominating teams, some of the best clubs in the NHL, during regulation. Being 0-3 in overtime and 0-2 in shootouts is actually unfortunate, considering how well they’ve played.
The Avs stumbled out of the starting blocks the past two seasons. They were 0-4 and then 5-7 last year. Two years ago, a 6-0 start turned into 8-5 with a pair of embarrassing losses. The last culminated with Bednar shredding his team in the media after an 8-2 home loss to St. Louis.
This edition of the Avs has been locked in, and it shows.
“Consistency. That’s what it is,” Bednar said. “I can count the periods where we’ve been not that great on one hand, and we’re 14 games in. There’s no major changes. It’s a lot of the same personnel, and we were good at the end of last year, too. But early in the season, it’s focus and consistency.”
The numbers, both traditional and advanced, back up the Avalanche’s dominance. Colorado is “only” tied for sixth in goals per game, but the Avs are third in goals against per contest and lead the NHL in goal differential at plus-15.
They lead the NHL in shots on goal per game at 34.1, while yielding the fourth-fewest at 25.1. That’s nine shots better than the opponent per night — the next closest team is Utah at 5.4.
The dominance at a team level is even more pronounced with advanced statistics. Colorado is collecting 59.61% of the expected goals at 5-on-5, a metric that tries to bridge the gap between shot quantity and quality to show which teams are truly controlling the play the best.
Washington is second at 57.95%, which is also a strong number, but the next team, Tampa Bay, is at 55.32%. The gap between Colorado and Tampa Bay is bigger than the distance between the Lightning and the Buffalo Sabres, in 14th place.
The Avs have always been a strong 5-on-5 team in the Nathan MacKinnon-Cale Makar era, but this is a different level at the start of the season. Colorado finished last season eighth in xGF%, but the Avs were 13th in expected goals for (xGF) and 30th in expected goals against (xGA).
This season is a different story. The Avs are second in xGF/60, so they’re creating offense at an elite level on a per-game basis. The big jump is on defense, where Colorado is fourth in xGA/60.
Colorado has already shown it can win high-scoring games and low-scoring games. Bednar didn’t think his club had its best legs Tuesday night against the Lightning, a great team riding a five-game win streak, and the Avs still outshot them 33-24.
The Avs look like the vintage Lightning clubs from the early part of this decade, when “they can beat you at any game you want to play” became their calling card.
“I feel like it’s a good recipe for success,” said Ross Colton, who was on those Lightning teams. “I also think (Bednar) just preaches the analytics side of things when we do our meetings. We’re doing a really good job on the defensive side of the puck, we’re limiting chances and we have so many skilled guys in this room that the offense is just going to come.”
The power play is the one area where the Avs have not been dominant, but the talent and a years-long track record suggests regression to the norms is coming. Meanwhile, the penalty kill is also humming at a rate unseen in Denver for a long time.
Colorado is second in the league on the PK at 90.5%. The underlying numbers are even better — the Avalanche leads the NHL in fewest expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (xGA/60) while playing at 4-on-5.
The Avs are the best 5-on-5 team in the NHL right now. They are arguably the best on the PK. Combine those two things with a (mostly) healthy lineup, solid goaltending, one of the best collections of game-changing talent in the league and a renewed focus … and that’s how a club ends up at the top of standings and feeling like there’s even a little more in there still to give.
“I feel like we’ve been playing through so many injuries the past couple of years,” Colton said. “Anytime you can, knock on wood, have a healthy lineup, it’s always nice. Hopefully, we can get (Logan O’Connor) and (Joel Kiviranta) back soon, but other guys have been playing well, too. It’s been a team effort every night.”
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