The search for the horse to bet on in the 158th Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday ordinarily would begin and maybe end with the Kentucky Derby winner and the even more impressive Derby runner-up.
But recent history in the Triple Crown races suggests looking deeper. Beyond Golden Tempo and Renegade, 1-2 in the Derby, don’t ignore Commandment, seventh at Churchill Downs.
Since 2018, when Justify went from finishing first in the Santa Anita Derby to sweeping the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, only three of the 20 Triple Crown races run on a normal schedule have been won by horses coming out of victories in their previous start. The three are Arcangelo and Sovereignty in the 2023 and 2025 Belmonts and Seize the Grey in the 2024 Preakness. On average, winners finished third or fourth in their latest start and hadn’t won a race in three months.
That’s a change from decades past, and it could be an effect of 3-year-olds racing less often now. A strong-looking recent result is less likely to be a true gauge of ability, and more likely to be merely the latest blip in a young horse’s ups and downs.
Golden Tempo, third in his previous two races in Louisiana, rallied to win the Kentucky Derby when a fast pace softened up the frontrunners. Renegade, coming in off a dominant performance in the Arkansas Derby, had a rough trip at Churchill and deserved better than losing by a neck.
Meanwhile, Commandment, the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Florida Derby winner, was slow out of the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby, raced wide and was bumped off stride in midstretch. He’s due for better luck in the Belmont, and he’ll offer higher odds than Renegade.
Brad Cox, the nation’s highest-earning trainer, has given Commandment a meaningful vote of confidence by sending him to the Belmont. Cox’s Further Ado, a troubled 11th as tote-board favorite in the Derby, is dropping into an easier spot in the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill on Sunday, where he’ll face Bob Baffert’s Santa Anita Derby runner-up Potente.
From the rail out, here are the horses (and jockeys) entered in the Belmont, to be run at 1¼ miles instead of the traditional 1½ to fit Saratoga’s configuration: 1. Vitruvian Man (Antonio Fresu), 30-1; 2. Powershift (Luis Saez), 12-1; 3. Chief Wallabee (Junior Alvarado), 3-1; 4. Renegade (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 2-1 favorite; 5. Ottinho (Dylan Davis), 20-1; 6. Growth Equity (Manny Franco), 12-1; 7. Commandment (John Velazquez), 6-1; 8. Emerging Market (Flavien Prat), 6-1; and 9. Golden Tempo (Jose Ortiz), 9-2.
Renegade is the one to beat. Commandment is the one to do it. The picks: 1. Commandment, 2. Renegade, 3. Chief Wallabee, 4. Golden Tempo, 5. Emerging Market.
ALL-STAR WEEKEND?
All Saratoga is missing this week is a Home Run Derby. While hosting the Belmont Stakes for the third time while Belmont Park is being redone, the track in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., is running a total of 17 graded stakes between Thursday and Sunday.
The Belmont Stakes undercard highlight should be the $1 million, Grade I Metropolitan Handicap – or Met Mile – with Baffert-trained Nysos (Prat) favored at 9-5 over Michael McCarthy’s Journalism (Jose Ortiz) at 5-2, Bill Mott’s Knightsbridge (Alvarado) at 7-2 and Todd Pletcher’s Antiquarian (Velazquez) at 6-1 in a field of seven.
Among others to watch: Friday’s Acorn Stakes, a rematch of Chad Brown’s Always a Runner and McCarthy’s Meaning after their 1-2 finish in the Kentucky Oaks; Saturday’s True North Stakes matchup of Bentornato, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner at Del Mar last November, and Book’em Danno; and Saturday’s Woody Stephens Stakes appearance by Baffert’s Crude Velocity, trying to build on his Kentucky Derby undercard romp.
AT SANTA ANITA
It’s a light weekend in Arcadia. Saturday’s feature race is the Honeymoon Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, reduced in the past decade from Grade II to Grade III and now ungraded. Light Won Up (Juan Hernandez riding) is the 9-5 morning-line favorite and wins if her form in turf sprints translates to this turf mile, while 10-1 Wild Like the West (Armando Ayuso) and 6-1 Lookin At Diamond (Victor Espinoza) are among the fastest around two turns.
Santa Anita races Friday through Sunday this week, and then caps its Hollywood Meet with racing Thursday through Sunday next week.
A CALL TO ACTION
A proposed federal ban on horse slaughter, and the export of horses for slaughter, is gaining support in Congress thanks in part to thoroughbred racing industry leaders speaking up for the Save America’s Forgotten Equines (SAFE) Act.
A prominent advocate is urging racing fans to speak up too. Ashley Avis, the screenwriter and director best known for Disney’s “Black Beauty” and founder of the Wild Beauty Foundation nonprofit, said people can contact their representatives through the website LostHorses.org.
“We all need to join forces so we can leave a legacy for these horses that have ignited our imaginations or drive us to the track or inspire us to sit down with one of those great equine novels,” Avis said in a phone interview a few days after Santa Anita hosted an “awareness event” for the effort Saturday. “Letters or phone calls to your members of Congress (do) make a difference.”
The SAFE Act advanced from a House committee in May as an amendment to a transportation bill and could come up for a vote by the entire House in late June. It would then face a Sept. 30 deadline to pass the Senate.
Avis credits racing leaders, including Santa Anita boss Aidan Butler, for their help in lobbying. The sport may be an imperfect messenger because of controversy over its animal welfare record, but Avis sees the bright side: “Perhaps people will take a look at this with more curiosity and say, ‘That’s unexpected.’ Nobody else has stepped up in the way these guys have.”
Avis emphasized that retired racehorses are among the estimated 20,000 horses shipped abroad each year to be slaughtered for human consumption.
She said: “If you knew your voice could save one horse, would you do it?”
SHORTENING UP
• Ron Glatt enjoyed his first winner since retiring as a full-time trainer in 2000 when Smile Baby Smile and jockey Abel Lezcano scored at 29-1 odds on Saturday at Santa Anita. Glatt, 80, was a leading trainer in Washington state but now is better known as the father of Mark Glatt, who saddled Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy. Smile Baby Smile ran for a $20,000 claiming price two starts after Ron claimed the 5-year-old mare for $8,000 last June as owner and trainer.
• Joel Rosario is up to sixth in wins (14) at Santa Anita even though the Hall of Fame jockey didn’t come west until May 10, nearly four weeks into the Classic Meet. Rosario is third in win percentage (23%) behind Hernandez (26%) and Hector Berrios (24%).
• At Los Alamitos, Zionsville was fastest in Sunday night’s trials for the June 21 Ed Burke Memorial Futurity, going 350 yards in 17.739 seconds with rider Cesar Ortega. Zionsville is one of two qualifiers for the team of owner Ed Allred and trainer James Glenn Jr., whose Friend Indeed was seventh fastest.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.
SANTA ANITA LEADERS
(Through Sunday)
Jockeys / Wins
Armando Ayuso / 23
Antonio Fresu / 22
Juan Hernandez / 20
Emisael Jaramillo / 18
Kazushi Kimura / 15
Joel Rosario / 14
Hector Berrios / 13
Trainers / Wins
Phil D’Amato / 14
John Sadler / 10
Jeff Mullins / 9
Mike Puype / 9
Michael McCarthy / 9
Mark Glatt / 8
Doug O’Neill / 8
UPCOMING STAKES
SANTA ANITA
Saturday
• $100,000 Honeymoon Stakes, 3-year-old fillies, 1 mile on turf
Thursday, June 11
• $100,000 Affirmed Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles
LOS ALAMITOS
Sunday
• $30,000 Fred Scane Handicap, 2-year-old quarter horses, 300 yards