Housing shortage, worst in California, is moving to America’s heartland


Mike Kingsella is chief executive at Up For Growth. The nonprofit in a study said the nation’s housing shortfall reached 3.8 million homes in 2019, more than double 2012’s tally of 1.7 million “missing” homes. (Courtesy of Up For Growth) 

If you look at, for example, in the state of California, we measured housing elasticity, which is to say, what is the market response is to increases in housing need.

California had about a 0.49 housing supply elasticity, meaning for every 1% increase in housing demand, builders responded with a 0.49% increase in supply. So, you’re building essentially half of the housing need year over year, which is why the state’s falling further into a housing deficit.

Other states, like Texas and Florida, are also following similar trend lines. In other words, their rate of underproduction is increasing quite faster than in California.

America’s housing crisis is spreading from big cities to the nation’s heartland, with housing shortfalls worsening in 230 out of 309 U.S. metro areas.

The nation’s shortfall reached 3.8 million homes in 2019, more than double 2012’s tally of 1.7 million “missing” homes, according to a study by the non-profit group Up For Growth. With a shortage of 978,000 homes, California had the nation’s biggest shortfall in 2019.

The number of cities with a housing surplus decreased to 140 metro areas in 2019, down from 212 in 2012.

“It doesn’t matter if you’re in an urban area or a rural area or really anywhere in between, the cost of housing and the demand for it has grossly outpaced salaries and supply,” said Up For Chief Executive Mike Kingsella, who discussed the study this month at the National Association of Realtors conference in Orlando, Fla. “Our study really found that for far too many Americans, folks can’t afford to live well where they work, play and gather.”

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While housing underproduction more than doubled in metropolitan areas, it nearly tripled in “non-metropolitan America.”

The three cities with the biggest housing surpluses in 2012 — Tampa-St. Petersburg, Las Vegas and Phoenix — all had housing shortages in 2019. Phoenix went from a surplus of 32,699 homes in 2012 to a shortage of 108,564 homes by 2019, the study found.

Despite high rates of construction, housing shortfalls tripled in Dallas and Houston.

Southern California and the Bay Area are epicenters in the nation’s housing crisis.

The Los Angeles-Orange County metro area had a shortfall of 388,874 homes in 2019, or 31% more than in 2012.

The shortfall tripled in the Inland Empire to 153,372 homes in 2019, fourth highest in the Up For Growth study.

The San Francisco Bay Area ranked seventh with a shortage of 114,000 homes as of 2019.

Kingsella discussed the study’s findings with the Southern California News Group. Here are highlights of that conversation:

Q: Why is the nation’s housing shortage getting worse?

A: ‘Why’ is really the confluence of NIMBYism, exclusionary and restrictive zoning codes and other artificial impediments to building needed homes.

Mike Kingsella is chief executive at Up For Growth. The nonprofit in a study said the nation’s housing shortfall reached 3.8 million homes in 2019, more than double 2012’s tally of 1.7 million “missing” homes. (Courtesy of Up For Growth) 

If you look at, for example, in the state of California, we measured housing elasticity, which is to say, what is the market response is to increases in housing need.

California had about a 0.49 housing supply elasticity, meaning for every 1% increase in housing demand, builders responded with a 0.49% increase in supply. So, you’re building essentially half of the housing need year over year, which is why the state’s …read more

Source:: The Mercury News

      

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