The news earlier this month that the Illinois AFL-CIO has “deferred” all decisions on legislative and statewide endorsements in the upcoming fall election generated quite a bit of headlines.
“Springfield not only failed to advance key priorities, but the process by which legislation was considered fell short of what working people deserve,” a statement by the state federation claimed. “These concerns span the full breadth of our movement, with public sector, private sector, manufacturing, and building trades all expressing dissatisfaction.”
The key priorities they pointed to included a multibillion dollar fix to the Tier Two pension system, which the state could not possibly fund without a significant tax increase. The unions also wanted House Bill 2565, which would pay unemployment insurance benefits to striking workers after two weeks (expected costs are up to $1 million a year, but business interests were hotly opposed, and traditionally, no unemployment insurance changes can move forward without first being subjected to the agreed bill process — a tradition the AFL-CIO is trying to end). House Bill 4416 would grant unemployment insurance benefits to noninstructional education workers (cost estimated up to $176 million per year, and local schools were hotly opposed because they’d have to raise property taxes).
And then there was the data center issue. Despite data centers being more unpopular than Ebola throughout the entire country (and the world, for that matter), enough House and Senate Democrats privately stood with organized labor against data center regulations deemed unreasonable by the industry that a bill which clamped down on them and would’ve been wildly popular never emerged. Heck, nobody ever got to the negotiation stage.
What upset some of the unions was that Gov. JB Pritzker decided to do what everybody has figured he’d do all along: He issued a decree pausing the granting of data center tax breaks until a legislative solution could be worked out.
That action will likely force the industry and the construction unions to the negotiating table. Even if a lawsuit is filed and won claiming that Pritzker overstepped his authority, the governor’s bureaucracy can still slow-walk applications — and everyone involved knows this.
To my eyes, this whole thing looks like member management. People don’t always realize that labor leaders are subject to similar election pressures as politicians. They have to keep their constituents happy, and in this case the constituency is the Illinois AFL-CIO’s executive committee. I just do not think that this announcement about how the union endorsement decisions will be “deferred” to a later date will wind up meaning no endorsements at all, for several reasons:
- While things can change, this year is shaping up to be a horrible midterm for President Donald Trump in Illinois. The House and Senate Democrats are in no danger of losing seats (even Democratic state Rep. Harry Benton, who has been kicked out of the House Democratic Caucus over unspecified allegations, might actually pull this off, depending, of course, how horrible his oppo file is). The Dems might even win seats without spending a dime. Withholding endorsements only to see the Democrats go on to have a good year would be seriously counter-productive. The politics game is partially about making sure candidates believe they need you.
-
Organized labor has not been all that ecstatic about Pritzker. “He is labor friendly but not a friend to labor,” is a common refrain. So they’re hoping to use this threat of deferred endorsements to put a bit of fear into him as he gears up to run nationwide. But data centers are so absolutely unpopular with the electorate that Pritzker can point to his pro-labor record and explain that he just couldn’t be with his friends on this one. As far as pensions go, he can point to Illinois’ ignoble past of overpromising and underfunding pension benefits as a darned good reason to avoid repeating those mistakes.
When my associate Isabel Miller asked the governor about the announcement, Pritzker said the process was up to the AFL-CIO, adding that he considers himself “pro-worker.” Neither of the two Democratic legislative leaders responded to requests for comment.
- As noted above, several legislators stood with labor on data center regulation in private, and if unions did actually withhold their endorsements for the fall election, those folks would have no incentive to stick with unions in the future, at least on this topic.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.