Iowa (6-3 overall, 4-2 Big Ten) at No. 17 USC (7-2, 5-1)
When: 12:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
TV/radio: Big Ten Network/ESPN LA 710
Line: USC by 6.5
NOTABLE INJURIES
USC: OUT: CB Prophet Brown (undisclosed), RB Eli Sanders (knee), CB Chasen Johnson (knee); QUESTIONABLE: CB DJ Harvey (undisclosed), DL Jamaal Jarrett (undisclosed), RB Waymond Jordan (ankle), LB Anthony Beavers, Jr. (undisclosed), DL Floyd Boucard (undisclosed), K Caden Chittenden (undisclosed).
Iowa: QUESTIONABLE: LB Jaden Harrell (undisclosed), WR Jarriett Buie (undisclosed), OL Lucas Allgeyer (undisclosed), TE Addison Ostrenga (undisclosed).
What’s at stake? Iowa’s College Football Playoff hopes were virtually eliminated after a losing to Oregon 18-16 last weekend, but USC is very much still in contention to earn its first CFP bid. The Trojans came in at No. 17 when this week’s CFP rankings were released. If USC can earn convincing wins over Iowa and beat Oregon next week, it could claim one of the at-large bids.
Who’s better? Iowa is on a 12-game losing streak against ranked opponents, but its style of offense and tough defense make for a challenging opponent. The Hawkeyes’ offensive line has started the same five players in every game this season and that’s allowed quarterback Mark Gronowski to score 12 rushing touchdowns, which ranks fourth among all FBS quarterbacks. USC’s run defense has been inconsistent this season and is 60th in the FBS after giving up 1,275 yards in nine games. USC, ultimately, is the more well-rounded, higher-performing team. Iowa’s defense has allowed only four passing touchdowns, so running back King Miller could be at center stage with dynamic quarterback Jayden Maiava playing a supporting role in the run game.
Matchup to watch: Iowa’s defense vs. USC head coach Lincoln Riley’s playbook. Riley has not shied away from using trick plays as of late and drew admiration and ire from the college football world on a play in the Northwestern game that involved a fake punt and a jersey change. He’s doubled down on his decisions in that game, even after a statement from the Big Ten Conference. The Hawkeyes’ defense rarely gives up chunk plays, so the Trojans may jump at the opportunity to use some creativity and perhaps even deception.
USC wins if: The Trojans will need to stop Iowa’s run game as best as possible while manufacturing rushing yards for themselves, especially in the red zone. The Hawkeyes have allowed teams to score 19 times in the red zone, but USC has scored either a touchdown or field goal on 42 of 45 red-zone attempts. The Trojans have been finishing strong thanks in part to kicker Ryon Sayeri, who has made 15 out of 16 field-goal attempts this season.
Prediction: USC 27, Iowa 21. The Trojans show their toughness against a gritty Big Ten team and add to their résumé for a CFP bid.