A tropical disturbance near the southern tip of Baja California has meteorologists’ attention — as it has the potential to bring some rainfall and elevated surf to Southern California this upcoming weekend, authorities said.
However, the National Weather Service says any valid prediction of what could come must wait until a tropical storm forms and starts moving.
“It’s very much in the air at this point, other than the elevated surf,” said Lauren Villafane, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “That’s the only thing we can say with any kind of certainty.”
Meteorologists say if the storm stays closer to the coast, it could bring a 20% chance of rain over the weekend, along with some swells along the coast.
If it drifts west, like Hurricane Karina over this past weekend, it wouldn’t have much more of an impact than sustained high humidity and elevated surf.
“This happens every year,” said Mike Wofford, another National Weather Service meteorologist. “Off Mexico, they form, they move on the ocean and they go in different directions depending on what the upper pattern is.
“Most of these systems tend to weaken considerably before they get here,” he added.
The formation comes at a time when Southern California is getting a reprieve from a sustained heat wave that included higher-than-normal humidity.
Villafane said the cold water off of the California coast “really does kill a lot of storms, so we don’t have to worry about it being a hurricane by the time it gets up here, if it does at all.”
The last time a tropical storm reached Southern California was in August 2023, when Hurricane Hilary traveled along the West Coast.
But it weakened by the time it made landfall.
Still, the storm did dump record amounts of rainfall, including about 8.5 inches on Mt. Wilson, while most valley areas saw 2 to 4 inches.
It’s just too early to tell what impact this current tropical disturbance might have on Southern California.
“We have to see what happens in terms of the direction it takes and whether it crosses the (U.S.-Mexico) border or not, and then how much … rain develops,” Wofford said. “There’s a lot of unknowns. The storm hasn’t even formed yet.”