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Is Notre Dame at Pittsburgh really a mismatch? College football Week 12 predictions are in

Certain things stood out Tuesday as College Football Playoff committee chairman Mack Rhoades discussed the latest rankings.

One, nobody is going to bump an unbeaten Big Ten team — whether it’s Ohio State or Indiana as we move forward — from the No. 1 spot. Two, the committee also is bent on throwing a parade for the SEC, which has four teams in the top six and six in the top 12. Three, if you’re not from one of those conferences, you barely count, independent Notre Dame excluded. Four, if you’re not from a Power Four league, you might as well be playing pickleball or Parcheesi.

As for the Fighting Irish, ranked ninth, the committee has long forgotten their back-to-back losses to start the season. They are golden as long as they keep winning — and almost certainly will move into the top eight and host a first-round game if they do.

“The committee really like Notre Dame as a complete team,” Rhoades said.

On the other hand …

Less than 48 hours after the new rankings were unveiled, Rhoades stepped down from both the CFP and his main gig as athletic director at Baylor. The school, which had been investigating allegations against Rhoades, termed it a “leave of absence for personal reasons.”

Rhoades’ plight has nothing to do with the Irish’s season, but it’s a reminder of how quickly fortunes can change from good to bad in college football. All it takes is a stumble at the wrong time to bring disaster to one’s door. And if the Irish have another stumble in them, it’s not going to come against Syracuse or Stanford in one of their last two games. It’s going to come Saturday in Pittsburgh against a hot opponent with an identical 7-2 record.

No. 9 Notre Dame (-12½) at No. 22 Pitt (11 a.m., ABC 7, 780-AM) is the mother of all mismatches if you ask Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi.

“This is by far the best team — across the board, in all phases, every position — that we’ll face,” he said. “It’s America’s team. It’s the all-American team, period.”

But Pitt — coming in off a bye week, unlike the Irish — has won five straight in the ACC, scoring 48 points against Boston College, 34 at Florida State, 30 at Syracuse, 53 against NC State and 35 at Stanford. Anyone want to try to guess how many yards Stanford rushed for against the Panthers? Try minus-10. Narduzzi’s defense also had five sacks and three interceptions, with linebacker Kyle Louis seemingly everywhere at once.

Irish coach Marcus Freeman got a text at the start of the week from someone referring to this as a “trap game.”

“I said, ‘This is not a trap game. This is a real challenge, a great challenge,’ ” Freeman said.

ESPN’s “College GameDay” operation hasn’t plopped itself near Acrisure Stadium, with the Allegheny and Ohio Rivers as backdrops, because it’s anticipating a laugher.

The Irish have won their last seven games by an average of 26.1 points, and all by double digits. But 10 of the last 14 games in this longstanding rivalry — only Navy, USC, Purdue and Michigan State have faced Notre Dame more — have been single-digit affairs. Freeman is 15-3 against the ACC, but all three losses (to Clemson, Louisville and Miami) have come on the road.

“They’re bigger, they’re stronger, they’re faster, but our guys will play hard like they will,” Narduzzi said. “I don’t have any doubts about that.”

Trap game or great challenge? Maybe a little of both. Irish, 34-24.

Week 12 picks

All games are Saturday.

No. 18 Michigan (-11½) at Northwestern (11 a.m., Fox 32, 720-AM): The Wolverines have a path to the playoff, but is it real or a mirage? And couldn’t they use another left-handed bat and a high-leverage reliever? Knowing the drill at Wrigley Field can only help the Wildcats. U-M by single digits.

Maryland (+15½) at Illinois (2:30 p.m., FS1, 890-AM): Offensively, the Illini should be able to get whatever they want. Defensively, they’re vulnerable against anybody and everybody. Will coordinator Aaron Henry’s crew — ranked 14th in the Big Ten in total “D” — show up? Illini, 34-21.

No. 21 Iowa (+6½) at No. 17 USC (2:30 p.m., BTN): What a tough assignment for the Hawkeyes a week after their heartbreaking loss at home against Oregon. The Trojans have been money at home all season. Fight On, 31-17.

No. 10 Texas (+6) at No. 5 Georgia (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Because the Longhorns have no running game, Georgia can load up its pass rush for maximum effect. The Bulldogs’ offense is in peak form. ’Horns go down and out of playoff contention, losing 27-17.

My favorite favorite: No. 4 Alabama (-5½) vs. No. 11 Oklahoma (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): It’s time to wave buh-bye to the Sooners, too.

My favorite underdog: UCLA (+31½) at No. 1 Ohio State (6:30 p.m., NBC 5, Peacock): The list of reasons the Buckeyes should go all-out for 60 minutes of this one is nonexistent. Bruins lose almost respectably.

Last week: 7-0 straight-up, 3-4 against the spread.

Season to date: 53-24, 38-39.

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