Say hello to California Gov. Xavier Becerra. As the June 2 election approaches, it’s looking like he will finish either first or second in that top-two contest, then cruise to victory in the Nov. 3 runoff.
After ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out in April from a personal scandal, the state’s Democratic Establishment coalesced around Becerra because of his impeccable pedigree: California Assembly, U.S. House member, state attorney general and secretary of Health and Human Services in the administration of Joe Biden.
A PPIC poll released Thursday showed Becerra in first place with 23%, Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton 20%, Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer 15%, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco 13% and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter 12%.
The key: This is a top-two race. Even if Hilton pops above Becerra on Tuesday, it won’t matter in the Nov. 3 runoff. That’s because there’s no indication Hilton can rise above the average 40% ceiling for statewide Republicans. Term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom’s opponents won 38% in 2018 and 41% in 2022.
A problem Hilton will face is the factor that pushed him above Bianco among Republicans: the endorsement of President Donald Trump. PPIC found just 30% of likely voters approved of the chief executive’s job performance.
Democratic operatives are well aware of that. They have worried the top-two system might cough up as finalists Hilton and Bianco, both Republicans. Solution: Three campaign mailers that Republican friends and I received that look like attacks on Hilton but actually boost him.
One showed a picture of Trump pointing to Hilton, above this: “WARNING: REPUBLICAN STEVE HILTON IS DONALD TRUMP’S CHOICE FOR CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR.” The fine print: “Paid for by Greater Golden State, Opposing Hilton for Governor 2026.” Cagovtracker.com lists contributions including $1 million from the national Democratic Governors Association, $500,000 from the California Nurses Association and $250,000 from the SEIU California State Council for Working People.
To prevent a top-two shutout in the future, Democratic political operative Steve Maviglio earlier this month filed the initial paperwork for an initiative on the 2028 ballot to repeal top-two. However, the PPIC poll found 59% like the current system.
This election also is a big disappointment for Steyer, who campaigned as the billionaire who wants to ramp up his own taxes to impose single-payer health insurance. AP reported May 27 he blew $195 million so far on ads. That topped the paltry $178.5 million Republican billionaire Meg Whitman spent in 2010 losing to Democrat Jerry Brown, 54% to 41%.
Say what you will about California voters, they’re not impressed by oligarchs flashing cash.
PPIC also found voters split on a likely Nov. 3 initiative requiring voter ID and citizenship requirements, 49% yes to 51% no. That will bring national attention and donations.
The likely initiative to impose a 5% tax on the wealth of billionaires is leading, 54% to 46%. But that’s before the billionaires pour tens of millions into opposition, blasting it with wording such as, “Not another tax increase for Californians.” SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, which launched the initiative, along with other unions, soon realized their money would be better spent on other campaigns, such as defeating voter ID.
The Legislature and Newsom currently are working toward the June 15 deadline for the 2026-27 state budget. The poll found 55% prefer “paying lower taxes and having a state government that provides fewer services” than getting gouged more for supposedly extra services. Newsom’s May Revision to his January budget proposal tallied $16.5 billion in unexpected revenues from the artificial intelligence boom.
It’s getting around that the state is overflowing in tax revenues, paid for by overworked Californians, but spends it badly.
In 2022, Newsom barely acknowledged his Republican opponent, then-state Sen. Brian Dahle. He deigned to submit to a single debate, two weeks before the election.
Hilton has raised crucial issues about Newsom’s overspending, low state K-12 test scores, high taxes choking the middle class, high gas prices and the endemic housing and homelessness crises.
Becerra should agree to 10 debates. Voters deserve that.
John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board