When you looked at the 49ers’ schedule back in August, you probably circled this Week 13 trip to Cleveland as an easy road win. The Browns stink. They always stink. It’s part of the NFL’s natural order, like the sun rising or Tom Brady botching the broadcast call on a big third down.
At 3-8, they stink again this year.
But if you’re Kyle Shanahan, you better not dare overlook this game. Because this matchup is way more interesting than it has any right to be, and it carries the risk of a season-defining embarrassment for San Francisco.
Consider this the ultimate clash of extremes — the kind of stark, cynical contrast that only the professional game can deliver:
On one side, you have a Browns defense that is championship-caliber, a unit of highly trained assassins that is as good as any the Niners have played. On the other, you have a Cleveland offense so disjointed and dysfunctional it borders on dereliction of duty.
In the end, this game will be decided by who screws up less, and after seeing Brock Purdy’s baffling three-interception stumble against Carolina, and knowing what this defense is without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, that’s not a question you want hanging over a team with playoff aspirations.
The betting line has dipped by a field goal, and the total has cratered to a paltry 37.5 points. The forecast calls for freezing rain. You’re not watching football on Sunday, folks. You’re watching the football equivalent of a Black Friday hangover. It’s going to be a grimy, low-scoring slog — and here is what makes it a must-watch disaster.
The Shanahan nightmare
If you wanted to build a defensive unit designed to tear down the very philosophical foundation of the 49ers’ offense, you’d build this one.
The Browns’ defense is conceptually sound, and physically, it’s loaded. These athletes fly to the ball, filling space and breaking zone-blocking rules sideline-to-sideline. They are running a single-high safety, Cover 3 or Cover 1, sticking eight men in the box, and rushing only four–and they get home all the time. This is the same Gus Bradley/Robert Saleh scheme that Shanahan himself considered the hardest defense to play, and in the hands of this talent, it can look like the vaunted 2019 Niners defense.
It all starts and ends with Myles Garrett, the closest thing to Lawrence Taylor since the man himself. He is an edge-rushing anomaly. If San Francisco leaves Trent Williams on an island against him, and they are proven wrong early, the game could be decided by the time the adjustment is made. This is the ultimate measuring stick. If the Niners can effectively move the ball and score against this group, then I’m willing to start entertaining those serious Super Bowl conversations. This defense is the best of the best.
The Purdy problem and Sanders sideshow
This Browns’ defense is a terrifying test for Brock Purdy. The three interceptions shouldn’t be forgotten or written off. Combine that concern with the forecast calling for freezing rain, and those whispers about Purdy’s small hands are on deck.
Bad toe, bad throws?
Rust?
Whatever it was that had Purdy flummoxed on Monday has to go away by Sunday.
Knock off that rust or the rust will be knocked off for you in this game.
This is a ripe opportunity for Shanahan to get tricky. The base zone runs are dead. They must lean into the gap scheme and their new dash motion looks that they used to undercut the Falcons’ aggressive front earlier this season. This is the game for fullback Kyle Juszczyk to earn every single penny of his contract by becoming a true chess piece — a moving target that forces the Browns’ lightning-fast linebackers to pause for a half-second.
Thankfully for San Francisco, they get the gift of the Browns’ offense, led by Shedeur Sanders. The rookie quarterback is an influencer first and a player second, a fact you realize instantly if you actually watched his first start against the Raiders instead of just watching ESPN or scrolling Twitter.
I did watch it, and it was objectively bad.
It was Big 12 nonsense — unstructured backyard football — against NFL competition. He stared down receivers, bailed from clean pockets, and threw a triple-covered interception that should earn him a spot on a blooper reel.
Sanders has talent and could end up being a competent NFL quarterback. That competency isn’t showing up by Sunday.
It’s why this game should be easy for Niners defensive coordinator Robert Saleh: Stick eight men in the box, shut down the run game, and dare Sanders to beat you over the top. He won’t do it enough to win.
The 49ers must force multiple turnovers. If they can’t come away with two or three takeaways against a quarterback who plays as if he forgets which jerseys his teammates are wearing, then this season is effectively over.
My prediction: It’s an ugly, cold, low-scoring affair. The 49ers will survive the weather and the Browns’ D.
49ers 16, Browns 11. (Yes, that score involves a safety and missed extra points. You’ve been warned.)