The Warriors are back in the playoffs, where anything can happen.
I’m not trying to sell you either hope or doom here. I literally mean “anything can happen.”
There is no truly surprising outcome for these Warriors over the next few days, weeks, or even months.
On Tuesday, Golden State beat the Grizzlies 121-116 in the Play-In Tournament to snag the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference bracket.
“We desperately needed to win this game,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “[It] Took 83 games, but we’re right back where we want to be in the playoffs.”
And after a drag-it-out game like Tuesday’s; after a run-in to the playoffs like the one the Warriors just gave us — this Golden State team could lose four games in a row starting Saturday against the Rockets in Houston and you — the informed observer — wouldn’t bat an eye. You’d be peeved, I’m sure, but not shocked.
These Warriors could also win four playoff series and another title—becoming the first No. 7 seed in NBA history to do so—and you’d have the same reaction (only replacing that frustration with glee).
Everything — good, bad, in-between — is possible for the Warriors because we still have no idea what this team is.
And to our credit, the Warriors have no idea, either.
This team might have the enviable triumvirate of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green — the former two combined for 75 points, with Curry scoring 15 in the fourth quarter on Tuesday — but it also received its secondary scoring in the biggest game of the year from a first-half flurry by rookie Quinten Post and Gary Payton II (who made as many 3-pointers Tuesday as Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody combined).
This is a team whose defense looks indomitable for stretches and downright feeble for others — sometimes with the same lineup on the floor.
This is a team whose coach dropped a 20-minute-per-game player to zero minutes starting with the biggest game of the season — Sunday’s de facto play-in game vs. the Clippers—and then kept him benched again in a true play-in game.
Justifiable? Absolutely. Bizarre? You bet.
It all makes these Warriors downright untrustworthy. Even in a game like Tuesday’s, they cannot overcome their seemingly innate need to make things more interesting than they must be.
Golden State — led by 21 Butler points — was putting a beat-down on the Grizzlies in Tuesday’s first half. They should have led by 25 at the break. Instead, the margin was just 12.
With a little less than five minutes to play in the third quarter, it became a one-possession game — because of course it did. The Warriors even trailed within a minute of the fourth quarter starting.
Do we credit the Warriors for fighting back into a game they allowed the other team take back?
Can you feel good about a contest that was effectively won by a five-second call? (When was the last time you saw someone whistled for not inbounding the ball fast enough?)
I could tell you that there’s plenty to like in a matchup against the Rockets in the first round — the Warriors have more star power, far more experience, and a much better offense.
But to say that would imply I know what Warriors team will show up game-to-game, or even quarter-to-quarter. I’m good – I’ve even been called “sage” — but I’m not clairvoyant.
A few weeks ago, the Warriors played the Grizzlies. Curry scored 52 points, Butler added 27, and Green was immense on the defensive side of the court. The Dubs barely won that game.
Tuesday, Curry and Butler combined for 75 points, Green wasn’t his best self, and the Warriors barely beat the Grizzlies.
It’s not just a Memphis thing, either. These Warriors can’t seem to get out of their own way against anybody. They started the month with back-to-back-to-back wins over the Grizzlies, Lakers, and Nuggets, but then couldn’t beat the Spurs at home in a contest they needed to win to avoid the play-in game.
Butler was saying after Tuesday’s win that he’s the “Robin” to Curry’s “Batman.”
That sounds pretty cool, but this team is still Jekyll and Hyde.
And while I’d say the NBA playoffs are not, in fact, the time to figure out who you are, I’ve covered the Warriors long enough to know that’s simply not true.
Before the 2022 postseason, then-general manager Bob Myers and coach Steve Kerr had a conversation about their squad, which started the season hot but faded in the final weeks, entering the playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the West.
“Steve said to me at one point… ‘I don’t think this is a championship team. We know what a championship team is. I don’t know if this is a championship team,” Myers said. “So we were laughing about that like, ‘What do we know?’”
If the 2022 Warriors can be a championship team, then so can these Dubs, who have the second-best record and net rating in the Western Conference since Butler’s arrival in the Bay.
At the same time, can a team that so often has at least two non-shooters on the floor and whose role players are young and unreliable be counted on to compete for anything?
What do we know about these Dubs?
Nothing, really.
Let’s see if that changes now that the “real” season is here.