LAS VEGAS — The Yankees hadn’t scored in 20 innings, prompting an analysis of the American League East and a chat with handicapper Tom Barton in New York.
Born and raised a Yankees fan on Long Island, Barton can dissect games and teams, including his own, with a dispassionate scalpel.
The Rays were hot on those pinstriped heels. In my daily sportsbook travels, I grabbed the Rays at +825 (risk $100 to win $825) to win the AL East and ran it by Barton.
‘‘I like the Rays quite a bit,’’ he said. ‘‘Will they make a move at the break to put them over the top? I think the AL is wide-open, so maybe [the Rays could be] AL champs, even.’’
(Pitcher Sandy Alcantara, under contract with the Marlins through 2027, is popular bait. But he’s also 4-8 with a poor ERA and WHIP, weakening the Marlins’ bargaining position. The MLB trade deadline is July 31.)
In Vegas, the Rays were about 12-1 to win the AL pennant and 28-1 for the World Series. I passed on those, satisfied with my position.
The night we talked, June 17, the Bombers’ scoreless streak hit 29 innings. The next day, the Rays trailed the Orioles 8-0 but rallied to win 12-8. They then beat the Tigers on June 20.
The next morning, MLB Network highlighted the categories in which the Rays led the AL since May 20, including batting average (.280), slugging percentage (.465), runs per game (6.1) and record (21-8).
In eight days, the Rays passed the Blue Jays in the AL East and cut a 6½-game deficit to the Yankees to 1½ games. After Tuesday, they trailed the Yankees by a mere game.
Barton added concern about inning issues with the Rays’ starters and said: ‘‘I’ll say the Yankees make the big move to get them there.’’
‘That’s sick!’
Halfway through the MLB season, it’s time to reflect on what we’ve seen and gauge what’s around the corner.
Through Tuesday, according to Covers.com, the 39-40 Angels led everyone in making money at 10.8 units for the season. Winning at underdog prices is their formula, followed by the Tigers (9.1 units) and Rays (8.7).
Handicapper Bill Krackomberger reported being up 11 baseball units.
‘‘That might not sound like a lot,’’ he said, ‘‘but in less than two months 11 units is nice, especially at $5,000 a game. I love baseball, grew up going to Yankee Stadium and Shea, now Citi Field.’’
The Bronx-born Krack Man is a longtime Vegas resident who favors certain five-inning-under action, especially between two stellar starters.
A typical five-inning total, with exceptional hurlers, is 3.5 runs. In his first 16 starts, games Paul Skenes started were 12-4 to that under, 7-4-5 as a Pirates side wager.
‘‘Skenes is 4-6 with a 1.78 ERA [now 4-7 with a 2.12 ERA],’’ Krack Man said. ‘‘That’s sick! Unbelievable. You might never see that happen again.’’
In Tarik Skubal’s first 16 starts, five-inning unders were 7-9, 10-3-3 as a side bet on the Tigers. Based on that information, five-inning-under positions with Skenes and five-inning side bets on the Tigers in Skubal starts are prudent.
Such a first-half tack went 22-7-3.
About Abbott
I have a 60-1 ducat on the Mets’ Pete Alonso winning National League MVP, courtesy of Southern California ’capper Tommy Lorenzo’s preseason recommendation.
Through Tuesday, Alonso was hitting .286 and his 64 RBI were fourth in the majors, behind Cal Raleigh (69), Eugenio Suarez and the Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki (both 67).
‘‘You can still get a very nice number on [Alonso] for NL MVP,’’ Lorenzo said. ‘‘His hard-contact numbers are actually better than [Shohei] Ohtani’s, and I fully expect him to pose a dilemma for voters.’’
Can Skenes become the first Cy Young Award winner with a losing record?
‘‘What’s carrying him is that ERA,’’ Lorenzo said. ‘‘[Plus,] media loves him. But at -400, you can’t bet that. There are danger guys like Zach Wheeler (+600) and Robbie Ray (25-1) who offer more value in that market.’’ (Odds and prices are subject to change.)
I also nabbed 17-1 NL MVP odds on the Cubs’ Kyle Tucker and safety plays on the Brewers (+775) and Reds (+450) to win the NL Central, but I’m bullish about the Cubs.
I’ve fielded inquiries about Reds starter Andrew Abbott, who was 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 72 strikeouts through Tuesday. His recent Cy Young odds were triple digits; today, they’re around 40-1.
‘‘A nasty lefty with excellent stats,’’ Lorenzo said. ‘‘Although he will be an asset to Cincy in the second half, he’s not Cy Young-level. He’s still outside the top 25 in K’s, and his fantastic current ERA should adjust.’’
‘Historically bad’
Barton has capitalized on over Athletics game totals (44-32 through Tuesday), which were topped only by the Dodgers (47-31).
‘‘In almost any game the Athletics play,’’ he said, ‘‘the over is worth the bet.’’
His prized wager, however, has been the run line (giving 1.5 runs) against the Rockies. They lost their 60th game June 21, and 47 of those defeats were by at least two runs.
‘‘Just pound the run line against the Rockies,’’ Barton said. ‘‘This team has been historically bad.’’
The 2024 White Sox (41-121, .253) had the second-worst MLB season by winning percentage since World War II to the 1962 Mets (40-120, .250). That Sox team had 21 victories by the time it lost its 60th game.
When the Rockies dropped their 60th, they had 18 triumphs, a pace that has them finishing a pitiful 37-125.
Moreover, the Mets at home have been ‘‘pricey, but it’s paid off,’’ Barton said, ‘‘especially when the price was low because of no name-brand pitchers on the hill.’’
The Mets were 27-12 at home through Tuesday, second only to the Dodgers (30-14).
What hasn’t worked, Barton confirmed, was wagering on big dogs (at least +200) against the Dodgers.
He sees certain squads making second-half surges, such as the Orioles.
‘‘Their pitching is terrible,’’ Barton said, ‘‘but this offense is better than it has been.’’
Barton advised monitoring pitchers’ inning limits. Someone who had tossed only 70 to 90 innings last season and is nearing that figure will be shut down or have his innings restricted.
‘‘Be cautious of staffs that have a lot of these types in their rotation,’’ Barton said. ‘‘Like the Cubs, with a guy like [Matthew] Boyd, and the Giants, with [Hayden] Birdsong, [Justin] Verlander and [Landen] Roupp.
‘‘On the other side, stick with the experienced staffs, like Philly and Seattle. The Mariners’ staff hasn’t been healthy all year, and they should start returning without inning concerns.’’
Yanks vs. Cubs?
Krack Man said it’s too common today to tap a Dodgers-Yankees rematch for the World Series, so he selected Astros-Tigers.
Lorenzo also deflected Yankees-Dodgers as ‘‘too easy’’ and went with Dodgers-Tigers. Barton wanted to tap Yankees-Phillies, but he isn’t quite sold on either team.
My Rays position might have been a timely hedge against the sweetest of my preseason purchases: Fall Classic exactas on Cubs over Yankees (105-1) and Yankees over Cubs (100-1).
Three months later, those two dogs are still hunting, and I’ve all but framed both tickets.