The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
How strong is the financial pressure on the Pac-12 to get to nine football members in 2026 compared to holding at eight? I’m trying to understand whether that additional TV inventory is a must. If evidence is overwhelming for nine, what are your odds for each candidate? — @BruinStrmShadow
We’ll address the candidate list in a separate section below. Let’s focus on the financial piece here, because it’s complicated and there is a lot of misinformation on social media (and elsewhere).
First, all the insight the Hotline has gathered in recent weeks suggests the Pac-12’s media deal is locked into a fairly narrow valuation range, whether or not the conference adds a ninth football school.
Assuming a round-robin schedule, there would be 28 conference games with eight members and 36 conference games with nine. Those additional eight games aren’t worth enough annually to markedly change the distributions across each school.
The amount of inventory covered by the CBS deal is not known. There will be at least three games on the CBS over-the-air network and an undisclosed number on CBS Sports Network.
How many are left for ESPN, The CW or Warner Bros. (TNT and TBS)? At this point, the only option is to guess. Clarity should come later this month; we strongly suspect at least one more piece of the media deal will be finalized in July or early August.
Now, let’s dig into the financials, because confusion has been rampant on social media and elsewhere since the CBS partnership was announced.
The Hotline pegged the value of the media deal at roughly $8 million per school per year a few weeks ago and has no reason to believe we are from reality. But remember, that’s the total amount, not the CBS piece. The final valuation, once all the media partners are on board, could creep as high as $9 million or perhaps drop as low as $6.5 million or $7 million.
(And that’s in line with the market. The American Athletic Conference, the league most similar to the rebuilt Pac-12, receives about $7 million annually, per school, from ESPN.)
To be clear: The distributions could be larger than the average amount.
Let’s say the total value is $70 million annually. For nine schools, that’s $7.8 million per campus per year. But if Texas State receives a half share in its first year, for example, the other eight members take home $8.3 million.
And again, the total would fall within our projected range of the high seven figures per school.
But here’s another point some fans have missed: There are other sources of conference revenue. The total amount distributed typically comes from media rights, the NCAA Tournament and the college football postseason.
We can make an educated guess on those amounts.
In the spring of 2027 — that’s the first fiscal year of the rebuilt conference — the Pac-12 will have 43 NCAA Tournament units to its credit, courtesy of games played before the official breakup in August 2024. At approximately $350,000 per unit, that’s $15 million for the conference to distribute.
However, the number of NCAA units will drop precipitously starting in the 2027-28 fiscal year when the 19 units amassed in the 2021 tournament are removed from the books. (Units are paid out for six years following a one-year delay.)
The College Football Playoff revenue is another key piece to the distribution calculation. Washington State and Oregon State will each receive $3.6 million for at least three years (2026-28), while the schools moving over from the Mountain West will take home $1.8 million.
But that’s not all. There are two more factors to consider:
— The Pac-12 is implementing a performance-based revenue model, in which the media rights distributions are fixed at full shares for each school (except perhaps Texas State). The revenue generated from postseason appearances, however, is split: The participating school keeps half of what it generates; the remainder goes into the pot.
(If Gonzaga were to play three games in the NCAAs that were worth $1 million per year for six years, the Zags would keep $500,000 in each year.)
— The Pac-12 Enterprises, the production arm of the defunct Pac-12 Networks, is expected to generate revenue through contracts with conference media partners and third-party networks. For instance, Enterprises produced a Golden State Warriors exhibition game for NBC Bay Area.
(The revenue total is unknown and could grow over time. Expenses must be considered, as well.)
All of which means the total conference distributions, in our estimation, will exceed $10 million per school and could climb close to $15 million for some campuses in a given year depending on March Madness units, the Pac-12 Enterprises, the performance-based fund and the final tally from the media rights deal.
The CBS piece is just one slice of the total amount.
Should the new Pac-12 add another strong team like Memphis? The old Pac-12 cannibalized itself right out of the four-team playoff annually. Wouldn’t undefeated UNLV get into the CFP (out of the Mountain West) over two-loss Boise State from the new Pac-12? — @NateJones2009
Clearly, UNLV has taken the big fish/small pond approach. The Rebels believe they can dominate the depleted Mountain West and use that position to challenge for CFP bids regularly and position themselves for a berth in the Big 12 in the 2030s.
That said, quality depth will be vital in the next CFP era, which begins in the fall of 2026. Given the stated preferences from SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, the selection process will be tweaked to place greater emphasis on schedule strength. Both are concerned about the committee’s focus on loss totals.
As a result, there’s certainly a reasonable case to make that UNLV is miscalculating — that the low floor in the Mountain West will undermine the Rebels’ resume — and that two-loss Boise State would have an advantage in the scenario you laid out (assuming two quality losses).
There are good reasons to add Memphis as the ninth football-playing school, with the schedule atop the list: The Pac-12 could play eight conference games in standard round-robin format.
The Tigers make more sense than anyone else, whether it’s Tulane or UTSA, South Florida or North Texas. In fact, we’d slot Memphis as the frontrunner for an invitation by a good distance. It’s just that the likelihood of adding the Tigers is below 50 percent while the chances of adding anyone else are in the teens.
There are all sorts of hurdles, starting with the financial component and the fate of Memphis’ other sports. Would the Big East accept Tigers in basketball (and everything else)?
We suspect Memphis will attempt to leverage the Pac-12’s interest into whatever deal it can wrangle out of the American. Never say never in realignment. But the Hotline believes Memphis is more likely than not to stay put.
After the Pac-12 announced CBS as the anchor partner, and with Fox still in talks with the conference, there was a bit of panic among Mountain West fans about landing a linear media deal. Do you think we see schools hit the exits? — @fakepaulblood
The Hotline won’t predict a collapse, but we won’t predict survival, either.
How’s that for a non-answer that actually cuts to the heart of realignment: Nothing is done until it’s done; and survival isn’t assured until the media rights deal is signed and sealed.
From the moment the Pac-12 raided the Mountain West in September, we have taken a skeptical view of the latter conference’s market value and the likelihood that it would sign an agreement capable of satisfying the anchor schools, UNLV and Air Force.
That view certainly didn’t change when the Pac-12 locked up a deal with CBS.
Those unfamiliar should know that CBS and Fox share the Mountain West’s media rights until next summer, when the contract expires — and the new Pac-12 comes online. On July 1, 2026, CBS effectively swaps its agreement with the current Mountain West for its deal with the new Pac-12.
Which leaves the new Mountain West with … what?
Maybe Fox is willing to take the majority of the football inventory. We don’t know the nature of the negotiations. But Fox has all the leverage now that CBS is (presumably) not interested.
Mountain West fans should be worried. They should have been worried all along. But now? Next-level concern seems appropriate.
CBS has gotten the rights to the Pac-12 title games in football and basketball. Doesn’t the NCAA require a minimum of 12 teams for a football championship? — @brycetacoma
Are the Pac-12 championship venue agreements with Allegiant Stadium and T-Mobile Arena still active? If not, do you think the conference can afford to book the Tier 1 venues in Las Vegas? — @Seattleite206
Excellent questions, which will be answered together given their overlapping nature.
The 12-team requirement to stage a football championship game was removed from the NCAA rulebook a few years ago. Given the Pac-12’s agreement with CBS, it’s safe to assume the conference will have a title game with eight (or perhaps nine) teams following a round-robin schedule, with the top two finishers playing for the trophy.
(The same is true in men’s basketball: Regardless of the number of teams, there will be a tournament.)
Also, we expect the football championship to be scheduled for Friday evening of conference championship weekend, as was the case for the title game during the previous era of Pac-12 football.
Will it be played at Allegiant Stadium? Will it move out of Las Vegas?
The conference is evaluating its options for site locations for the championship events in the sports it plans to sponsor, including men’s and women’s basketball.
Finding venues of suitable size and cost is critical. Allegiant Stadium (capacity: 65,000) worked well for Oregon vs. Utah, but is it appropriate for Boise State vs. San Diego State, for example?
If the rebuilt Pac-12 intends to keep a competitive foothold in Las Vegas, there are no other options.
Would SoFi Stadium better serve the conference, given the critical role Southern California plays in recruiting?
Could the Pac-12 rotate its championship games across NFL stadiums in the western third of the country?
Or should the conference consider playing the title game on the home field of the top seed, as the Mountain West has done?
Like so much else, including the membership, media rights, conference schedule and bowl affiliations, the location of the football championship (and the basketball tournament) must be determined in the next few months.
With the addition of Texas State, should the Pac-12 change its name to the ‘State 8’ for football? — Scott T
Appreciate the humor, and there have been plenty of jokes about the number of Pac-12 schools with State in the name — all of them, in fact, except Gonzaga.
But there is a serious component to this issue: the preservation of the Pac-12 name.
Despite its depleted nature since the 10 legacy schools departed, the Pac-12 brand has value — certainly, it’s stronger and more valuable than the Mountain West and American brands, since those leagues have been in existence for 26 and 12 years, respectively.
The Pac-12 could add six or eight new members, each of them a ‘State.’ It won’t move off the Pac-12 name, which has more value than any other option.
Since you’re in the Bay Area, is there any thought of Cal or Stanford returning to the Pac-12? I realize money speaks volumes, but having the athletes compete in an East Coast conference is ridiculous. — Dan D
For basketball and the Olympic sports, it’s completely ridiculous, everyone at both schools knows it and, privately, many will even admit it.
But Cal and Stanford signed 12-year contracts that run through the spring of 2036. Unless the ACC implodes, they are legally bound to remain in the conference.
Could the ACC implode? Yes. When 2030 arrives and the penalty for breaking the grant-of-rights drops to a manageable amount, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami and perhaps others will seek routes into the SEC or Big Ten.
If they succeed, Cal and Stanford might seek to place their Olympic sports in a conference that aligns geographically with their campuses.
Football is another matter entirely, with a slew of possibilities existing — not just for the Bears and Cardinal but the entire sport.
With their incredible academic reputations, the Bay Area schools want no part of the state universities in the rebuilt Pac-12.
But if the conference has a different membership structure in the 2030s, or if there’s another option for Cal and Stanford, then leaving the ACC could provide a path forward.
I’ll keep asking until we get an answer: Any chance we get an Ivy League Hotline for this upcoming season? — @BoltokGroq
Unless the Hotline stumbles upon enough cash to fund a team of reporters, we’ll leave coverage of the Ivy League for another enterprising media member.
We are committed to covering the former Pac-12 schools, their new conferences and the national issues that impact everyone, from the future of the CFP to the House lawsuit settlement, from changes in the media ecosystem to the growing threat to college football posed by the NFL and loads more.
That keeps us busy enough.
Hamburgers or hot dogs? — @UtesBcrazy
It has to be hamburgers. I don’t eat hot dogs — or any type of pork, for that matter. It’s not a religious thing or a special diet. Just had a bad experience years ago during a jungle trek in Thailand and haven’t touched it since.
That said, thanks for the question and thanks to Hotline readers for your continued support. Have a safe and happy holiday weekend.
We have vacation planned for the end of July but otherwise will be churning out content on a near-daily basis throughout the summer.
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