Makerfield by-election is the most consequential in British history

It doesn’t get much bigger than this.

Political journalists, like our sporting counterparts, are often prone to bouts of hyperbole, talking up the most inconsequential of contests as if they are a far bigger deal than they actually are.

But the upcoming Makerfield by-election, in which Andy Burnham will attempt to stand, win, and then potentially try to oust Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, really does feel as big as a cup final.

Even after almost 100 of his own MPs calling on him to stand down, and he lost Wes Streeting as Health Secretary, Starmer seems to have bought himself a stay of execution while the Labour Party – and the country – holds its collective breath, waiting to hear Burnham’s fate in the by-election.

These irregular MP contests are always dramatic, but the impending battle in Greater Manchester looks set to upend the entire future of British Politics.

LIVE: Streeting backs Burnham with Starmer on the brink

So, What’s Next?

Of course, there is no guarantee that the Mayor of Greater Manchester will be selected for Makerfield.

Josh Simons, who quit the seat yesterday, was not seen as a natural ally to the soft-left Burnham, the former having cut his teeth at the centre-right, pro-Starmer think tank Labour Together – an association that cost him his ministerial role amid allegations the group had targeted journalists.

But the soon-to-be ex-MP made clear in his resignation that he wanted Burnham as the candidate, and Starmer has indicated that, unlike in the case of Burnham’s abortive candidacy for the Gorton and Denton by-election, he wouldn’t use the party’s ruling NEC to block the Mayor.

However, there is still no guarantee that Burnham will be on the ballot – the NEC, while pro-Starmer by nature, are their own men and women, and sources still claim that the chances of Burnham being approved are ‘on a knife-edge.’

A decision is expected on that in the next few days, and then a ‘writ’ will be moved, meaning the government will formally call the by-election.

Assuming they won’t want the current stasis at the heart of Starmer’s administration to continue, they will likely move quickly, meaning voters in Makerfield could go to the polls in late June or early July – just as England’s World Cup campaign ramps up.

Burnham is a shoo-in to win, right?

Wrong! While this is a Labour-held area, and Burnham remains incredibly popular there, this is far from a safe seat.

Even during the landslide of 2024, outgoing Simons won a relatively slim majority of 5,399 over Reform.

And Nigel Farage’s party are resurgent both in the country and in the constituency itself, winning every available ward in Makerfield at last week’s local elections.

Expect Reform to throw the kitchen sink at this by-election. It’s an ironic quirk of fate that the party, which campaigned in the locals urging people to remove Keir Starmer, are now trying to defeat Andy Burnham in an upset that could keep Starmer in place.

With any other candidate, Reform would likely be favourites. But even removing the national stakes, Burnham remains well-liked across the Greater Manchester region – in 2024, he won the mayoralty with a majority of 53%.

Burnham is far from a dead cert in this seat, but his allies stress that this is very much deliberate, insisting that a win will inform his challenge to Keir Starmer on the basis that only he can take on Reform and win.

A potential wild card in this constituency is the Green Party, who finished a distant fifth in 2024, but are buoyed by their success in nearby Gorton earlier this year as well as the local elections.

They could try and cut a deal with Burnham to step down, or risk splitting the left vote and allowing Reform the chance to deny him the seat – and the keys to Number 10.

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Where does this rank, historically?

Some by-elections pass without much incident, but some, like this, can put previously unheralded areas on the political map, with the personalities written into history.

Perhaps the most relevant to Makerfield is the precedent that was set in 1963’s Perthshire West and Kinross by-election.

Alec Douglas-Home, a member of the House of Lords, had just taken over as Prime Minister, but gave up his peerage as he felt he needed the democratic legitimacy of a House of Commons seat.

As one of the safest Unionist Party seats (that is what the Conservatives in Scotland were then known as), there was little doubt that Douglas-Home, who also briefly served as Prime Minister without being a member of either House of Parliament, would win.

But a note of caution for Andy Burnham – using a by-election as a route to Number 10 didn’t do Douglas-Home much good, as he was ousted by Harold Wilson in a general election less than a year later.

Also in Scotland, in 1967, Hamilton took on national significance when the SNP’s Winnie Ewing won a seat that the party hadn’t even stood in at the general election.

The fledgling nationalist party was given a significant boost by the victory, and has been a feature of British politics ever since.

Another nationalist movement was given a boost in a by-election at the contest in Fermanagh and South Tyrone in 1981, when hunger striker Bobby Sands triumphed on a pro-Republican ticket.

More recently, in 2022, the governing Conservatives lost two by-elections in a single day, being defeated by the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Homiston, while Labour triumphed in Wakefield.

It showed just how unpopular Boris Johnson was with voters, and his government collapsed in a matter of weeks.

But if Andy Burnham wins in Makerfield and immediately challenges Keir Starmer, then he could stake a claim to taking part in the most important by-election in British history.

At least, that is, until someone challenges him.

Do you have a story you’d like to share? Get in touch by emailing Ross.Mccafferty@metro.co.uk. 

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