Despite historically low levels of violent crime in Chicago this year, candidates trying to replace Mayor Brandon Johnson are sweeping aside the numbers in favor of anecdotes and are depicting the city as reeling in a “crisis” of gun violence and lawlessness.
Chicago had 122 murders in June, July and August, according to city and police data posted through Tuesday evening.
That’s the lowest summer total since 1965. Overall violent crime hit its lowest level last year in more than four decades. City data shows the downward trend has continued this year.
In their mayoral quests, nevertheless, candidates keep stoking public anxiety about violent crime.
Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza, making her second run for the office, went on WBEZ last month and said the city faced a “public safety crisis.” She pointed to the Chicago Transit Authority.
“How about let’s not shoot people on the CTA,” Mendoza said. “Let’s not allow people to violate people on the CTA or set them on fire. And those are the things that are happening, unfortunately.”
FBI-classified “index” crimes at CTA locations — trains, buses, stops and all other properties — are down 29% this year through Aug. 23, according to police figures. Seven categories, ranging from thefts to shootings, are all down. Two other categories increased: There were 24 sexual assaults and four arson incidents.
Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, the best-financed mayoral candidate, pointed to shootings last weekend in an X posting: “Gun violence is more than a statistic, it’s a public health crisis that is cutting too many lives short.”
U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley, talking up his mayoral qualifications on WBEZ two weeks ago, said Chicago faced a “public safety crisis” and claimed falsely that homicides were on the rise: “They’re dipping back up, obviously.”
George Cardenas, a Cook County Board of Review commissioner speaking on WTTW in June, said public safety improvements would be his priority as mayor and tried to sow doubts about police department crime metrics.
“I know that people don’t feel safe, especially Downtown,” Cardenas said.
Businessman Willie Wilson’s campaign website says crimes, including smash-and-grab robberies and car thefts, “have shaken the foundation of our city.”
Chicago robberies last year were down more than 86% from their 1991 peak, according to annual Chicago police reports. More recent police data shows robberies falling sharply since a small surge in 2022 and 2023 that experts tied to the pandemic.
Several lesser-known mayoral candidates have joined in the alarm about Chicago public safety despite the city’s historically low violent crime numbers.
Johnson links the improved numbers to his selection of Larry Snelling as police superintendent, Chicago’s focus on CTA safety and its investments in community violence intervention and youth summer jobs.
But some of his challengers have suggested Johnson doesn’t deserve much credit because the downward murder trend began in 2022, the year before his mayoral tenure began, and because murder numbers have been falling in cities across the country.
“In the current environment, Brandon is going to be dismissed,” political strategist Delmarie Cobb said. “But if crime is down everywhere, then who’s responsible for it? Is Trump correct? Is the president responsible, or are the local elected officials?”
Former Chicago Ald. Dick Simpson, a retired University of Illinois Chicago political scientist, said Chicagoans “still don’t feel like they’re completely safe.”
“They will still see spikes from day to day or week to week, where additional crimes have been committed,” Simpson said. “There may be weekends where more people are killed, and so it will still be an issue about whether or not enough is being done to prevent crime.
“I think [Johnson will] have some difficulty in answering it. He has the facts on his side … but for the average voter, they’re not interested in the statistics.”
Northwestern University political scientist Jaime Dominguez said Johnson is in a “good position to really take credit for what his administration has been doing in terms of, overall, bringing those crime numbers down.”
Still, Dominguez acknowledged, “perception is a reality.”
“The perception of these roving teens getting together and creating chaos and mayhem in the Loop and around Grant Park, that perception becomes a reality,” he said.