Following Democrats’ defeat in the 2024 election, some pointed to a systemic issue within the Democratic party: progressives and political elites who dominate the party have pushed it so far to the left, that it is out of touch with what voters want.
Now, a new first-of-its kind poll conducted by UC Berkeley and Politico has quantified just how out of touch California’s Democratic political elites are with the wider electorate.
To be sure, this survey was only conducted in one state.
However, there are indications that the chasm between Democratic elites and average voters is not confined solely to California but rather is a national problem for Democrats.
David Hogg, the vice chair of the DNC, is reportedly planning to spend $20 million on primary challenges against Democratic incumbents he considers too passive in opposing Trump.
In no uncertain terms, if not corrected, the disconnect between the activists and elites versus the rest of the electorate – including Democrats – will make it virtually impossible for the party to coalesce around a presidential candidate.
The poll, which surveyed 1,025 California voters and more than 700 “political influencers” – a sample which included political insiders, federal and state lawmakers, as well as their staffers – found a considerable gap between what voters want from their elected officials and what political elites want.
Indeed, while a plurality (43%) of voters feel their representatives have been “too confrontational” with the Trump administration, nearly one-half of influencers say officials have been “too passive” according to Politico, which did not publish the specific percentage.
Put another way, whereas voters want California to have a working relationship with the Trump administration, the smaller group of political elites want California at the forefront of anti-Trump “resistance.”
Moreover, on specific policies, such as immigration and climate mandates, there was an even starker divide.
According to Politico, whereas voters “were more likely to support reducing legal immigration and encouraging assimilation,” elites, on the other hand, “favored more legal immigration and maintaining distinct cultures.”
Further, when asked about California’s strict emission standards, voters supported it by a 5-point margin (45% to 40%), a significant difference from the 68-point margin in elites’ support (82% to 14%).
Summing up the poll, Politico noted that the political elites are more eager than voters to “embrace California’s progressive agenda.”
Given that California voters are significantly more liberal than the national electorate, it’s entirely reasonable to believe that the disconnect between national elites and voters nationwide is even greater.
To that point, as Jack Citrin, a political science professor at UC Berkeley noted, “The influentials (influencers in this survey) are a much more homogenous group than the registered voter public.”
This has been to the detriment of the party’s relationship with everyday Americans, particularly working class voters, who used to be the core of the Democratic Party.
In no small measure, Democrats’ shift to the left – on the economy and social issues in particular – is why Donald Trump made considerable inroads with working class voters last November.
Even in California, Kamala Harris’ 20-point margin of victory was nearly 10-points lower than former President Biden’s in 2020.
With the exception of Alpine, every county in the state shifted to the right in 2024 versus 2020, including a 9% move in Riverside, and 6% in both Orange and San Diego counties, per the New York Times.
Speaking of the former Vice President, the same survey indicated diverging opinions on her possible run for Governor of California.
Asked which word most encapsulates their emotions towards a Harris candidacy, political insiders most often said “indifferent” (36%), followed by “mostly excited” (22%).
Registered Democrats however were significantly more upbeat – slightly more than 4-in-10 (41%) said they were “mostly excited” and one-third said “joyful.”
Conversely, roughly one-half (47%) of Independents said they felt either “irritated” (26%) or that Harris’ campaign was “hopeless” (21%).
Of course, given Democrats’ dominance in the state, Independents would likely be unable to deny Harris the governor’s mansion should she run.
Although, these findings further reinforce the disconnect between Democratic political insiders and the wider electorate.
On a much larger scale, the UC Berkeley-Politico survey underscores a point I and others have repeatedly made: For the last 15 or so years, the Democratic Party has been moving solidly to the left while at the same time, it has increasingly become a party of the elites.
To that end, the Democratic Party has allowed itself to be captured by progressive elites which has steered the party further to the left, damaging its political viability.
Before next year’s midterms, Democrats must reorient the party away from the elites’ far-left politics and back to its traditional values.
If they don’t, then even the chaos Trump is causing with his haphazard economic policies, and constant constitutional overreach won’t be enough to bring voters back to the Democratic Party.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.