LAS VEGAS — How poorly have the Titans and rookie quarterback Cam Ward been playing?
“We [rear end],” is how Ward summed it all up, and he wasn’t even referring to their most recent horrible executions and exceptional failures.
(Ward used a word that rhymes with gas, as in petrol, but we aim for civility. He also could be referring to our overall ATS record. All who have faded every pick this season are up a healthy 20.9 units.)
In a 32-team league, Ward’s 72.1 QB rating is 34th. To Sports Illustrated, he again displayed his oratorical prowess.
“I can’t play no damn worse,” he said. “I can, but [bleep], I ain’t trying to.”
Tennessee was idle last weekend, but the league’s bottom-feeder is back, hosting Houston on Sunday. Over the last two seasons, the Titans are an NFL-worst 5-21 (19.2%) against the point spread. In Nashville, that’s 1-11.
The Titans also own the worst points-per-play (PPP) margin at -0.215. It’s worse (-0.240) over their last three games.
Ward has been sacked 38 times for 295 yards, both NFL highs. David Carr (Texans) suffered 76 sacks in 2002, and Randall Cunningham (Eagles) lost 489 yards on sacks in 1986, both season records.
The Miami product hasn’t hit 200 yards in three of his last four, in which he has five touchdown passes and six interceptions. He also has lost seven fumbles. The Colts’ Daniel Jones leads with eight fumbles lost.
Cincinnati is the lone team that runs for fewer average yards (79) than Tennessee’s 81, and only the Jets (144) pass for fewer average yards than the Titans’ 163.
It’s a long list of misery for Tennessee.
With reserve quarterback Davis Mills, Houston awoke with 26 fourth-quarter points Sunday in a 36-29 victory over Jacksonville. That improved Mills’ record as a starter to 6-19-1. He’ll get the nod again in place of C.J. Stroud (concussion).
Either way, the Titans are toast. Since Mike McCoy took over for the sacked Brian Callahan, Tennessee is 0-3, having been outscored 96-47 and getting trumped in total yardage 1,150-802.
McCoy has said Ward just needs experience, that he’ll learn to throw the ball away when he’s in danger and out of the pocket, rather than taking another sack. The Texans, however, are trouble.
Houston has allowed opposing quarterbacks to combine for only a 70.8 rating, giving the Texans the stingiest pass defense in the NFL.
Expect Ward to have another long day. Just keep the kids from hearing his postgame presser.
BEST BET
TEXANS at TITANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Texans by 7.
Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 4-5/4-5; Titans 1-8/3-6.
Pick: Texans 20, Titans 6.
Play: Texans -7.
How Miech’s plays fared
Last week Overall
Best bet 0-1 5-5
Top plays 1-2 15-15
All plays 4-10 61-88
7-point tease 9-5 97-50-2
TOP PLAYS
BENGALS at STEELERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Steelers by 5½.
Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 3-6/3-6; Steelers 5-4/4-5.
Outlook: The Bengals own the worst player-productivity differential in the league, according to our new resource QuantCoach. Plus, they rate poorly in pass coverage and pressure. A perfect scenario for Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers to get right.
Pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 14.
Play: Steelers -5½.
RAVENS at BROWNS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Ravens by 7½.
Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 4-5/4-5; Browns 2-7/3-6.
Outlook: In two games since returning, QB Lamar Jackson is 35-for-52 for 380 yards with five TDs and no interceptions. Three of the last five QBs to throw against the Browns have gathered 200-plus yards, seven TDs and one pick.
Pick: Ravens 26, Browns 10.
Play: Ravens -7½.
COWBOYS at RAIDERS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Cowboys by 3½.
Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 3-5-1/4-5; Raiders 2-7/3-5-1.
Outlook: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott averages nearly 37 passes a game, tops in the NFL, and his 258 average aerial yards rank sixth. That’s where the Cowboys will take advantage of the Raiders’ mediocre pass defense.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Raiders 13.
Play: Cowboys -3½.
OTHER PLAYS
BEARS at VIKINGS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 6-3/5-4; Vikings 4-5/4-5.
Outlook: Bears tilts are 5-3-1 to over, according to TeamRankings, while games involving the Vikings are an NFL-high 7-2 to over. Until further notice, we will keep wagering over on totals in Chicago games.
Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 24.
Play: Over 48½.
COMMANDERS vs. DOLPHINS
Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid
Time: 8:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL Network.
Line: Dolphins by 2½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 3-7/3-7; Dolphins 3-7/5-5.
Outlook: Madrid is the fourth Euro city to host an NFL game, on Real Madrid’s fabled pitch. Washington allowed a season-high 546 total yards to Detroit last week. Miami RB De’Von Achane (174 rushing yards) paced a triumph over Buffalo.
Pick: Dolphins 20, Commanders 10.
Play: Dolphins -2½.
PACKERS at GIANTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Packers by 6½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 5-3-1/3-6; Giants 2-8/5-5.
Outlook: The Giants canned coach Brian Daboll. QB Jameis Winston starts in place of Jaxson Dart (concussion). He’s 36-51 as a starter. The Packers, though, are leaking oil.
Pick: Packers 13, Giants 10.
Play: Under 43½.
PANTHERS at FALCONS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Falcons by 3½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 5-5/6-4; Falcons 3-6/4-4-1.
Outlook: When Panthers RB Rico Dowdle runs for triple-digit yardage, his team is 3-0. When Bijan Robinson hits that figure for the Falcons, they’re 2-0. We see Dowdle, whose quad tweak has been managed well, having the advantage.
Pick: Falcons 21, Panthers 20.
Play: Panthers +3½.
BUCCANEERS at BILLS
Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Bills by 5½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 6-3/5-4; Bills 6-3/4-5.
Outlook: The Bucs are 0-3 lifetime in Buffalo, losing by an average of 7.3 points, but QB Baker Mayfield is 4-1 on the road this season. Bills QB Josh Allen averaged 10.1 yards a throw last time at home against the Chiefs.
Pick: Bills 27, Buccaneers 17.
Play: Bills -5½.
CHARGERS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 7-3/4-5-1; Jaguars 5-4/4-4-1.
Outlook: In that fourth-quarter meltdown against Houston and QB Davis Mills, the Jags’ defense was particularly inept on third and fourth down. The Chargers have won four of their last five to trail Denver by a game.
Pick: Chargers 24, Jaguars 17.
Play: Chargers -3.
SEAHAWKS at RAMS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Rams by 2½. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 7-2/7-2; Rams 7-2/7-2.
Outlook: A preview of the NFC title game? We think so, as they’re tied for the league’s best ATS record. Last Sunday, the Rams allowed their first rushing touchdown to a tailback this season, the 49ers’ Brian Johnson.
Pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 20.
Play: Rams -2½.
49ERS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 6-4/5-5; Cardinals 3-6/5-4.
Outlook: Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett is 20-37 as a starter, and in two games against the 49ers, he has one TD pass and two picks with 10 sacks. The Niners are 4-2 in their last six in the desert, and RB Christian McCaffrey is 7-1 against the Cards.
Pick: 49ers 20, Cardinals 14.
Play: 49ers -3.
CHIEFS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Chiefs by 3½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 5-4/5-4; Broncos 8-2/4-5-1.
Outlook: After that debacle against the Raiders, we expect Denver to resemble a top squad against the Chiefs, whose years of luck are dissipating. No team in the league protects its QB better than the Broncos shield Bo Nix.
Pick: Broncos 31, Chiefs 19.
Play: Broncos +3½.
LIONS at EAGLES
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Eagles by 2½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 6-3/6-3; Eagles 7-2/6-3.
Outlook: Detroit is 3-7 in its last 10 in Philly. Four times this season, the Eagles have accumulated fewer than 300 total yards, and they’re 4-0 in those tilts. Finding a way, indeed. Since 2021, the Eagles have won 73.8% of their home games.
Pick: Eagles 27, Lions 20.
Play: Eagles -2½.
Byes: Colts, Saints.