LAS VEGAS — I rose early that Sunday to excavate NFL games over breakfast. I bolted from rug-rat-infested Circus Circus and plopped into a cafe inside the Stardust.
The Dust, to locals, of whom I wasn’t one yet; that would transpire in three years. In town to cover the CONCACAF Champions Cup, the NFL’s nine early games were my focus Oct. 3, 1999.
I analyzed each one, employing contrarian tactics, nullifying feelings, thoughts and trends. I re-reviewed them, including Saints at Bears.
I recall few details, finding the date by cross-referencing the soccer tournament with the NFL slate. A certified minnow, I made five $20 parlays, giving six points purely because it was fewer than seven, taking 4½ simply to cover a loss of one, three or four.
I had an easy blowout win or two, but those morning tilts included decisions by four (Bears over Saints), seven, six, two and one.
The most vivid memory is of my Dust seatmate. I executed a double-take when Jimmie “JJ” Walker, a stand-up comic and star of the 1970s TV show “Good Times,” sat beside me.
As every game finished, almost simultaneously, everything fell my way. I got a field goal here, a touchdown there, a fourth-down stop. A missed field goal. Everything came in.
That C-note blossomed into nearly a grand.
And I never once glanced to my right and barked, “Dy-NO-mite!” at JJ, his catchphrase. We just exchanged casual football chatter.
It can seem as if flipping a coin might be the best way to combat the dastardly difficult NFL point spread and the winning percentage of 52.38 required just to break even.
I went against eye tests and logic and had the best NFL-wagering day of my life.
All of which I recalled in digging into Monday night, when the Seahawks (4-2) return from a Florida excursion to host the Texans (2-3), who were idle last week.
TeamRankings has Houston power-rated No. 3, at 5.3, while Seattle (3.5) is ranked 10th. Both are top-three squads in points-per-play margin, a metric I prize.
With a sub-.500 home record since 2021, the Hawks have no own-barn edge. The Texans’ defense is their strength, allowing an NFL-low 12.2 average points.
Houston quarterback CJ Stroud is 47-for-59 with six touchdowns in his last two games, over which the Texans have committed zero turnovers.
Yet, this spread has eked from 1½ to three, favoring Seattle. We have Houston giving a few points, creating a wrong-team-favored situation, a theoretical edge of nearly six points.
If the Texans win or cover, that will be dy-NO-mite!
Best bet
TEXANS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 9 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 2-3/2-3; Seahawks 4-2/4-2.
Pick: Texans 20, Seahawks 16.
Play: Texans +3.
How Miech’s plays fared
Last week Overall
Best bet 1-0 4-2
Top 3 1-2 7-10
All plays 6-9 39-54
7-point tease 11-4 63-28-2
Top plays
PATRIOTS at TITANS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Patriots by 7.
Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 4-2/4-2; Titans 1-5/2-4.
Outlook: The Titans are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home tilts. They replaced Brian Callahan on Monday with Mike McCoy (27-37 as an NFL boss). We goofed last week, taking the Titans in Vegas. We won’t get fooled again.
Pick: Patriots 31, Titans 10.
Play: Patriots -7.
COLTS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Chargers by 1½.
Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 5-1/4-2; Chargers 4-2/2-3-1.
Outlook: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who leads the league with 603 rushing yards, tallied his third triple-digit game (123) Sunday against the Cardinals. The Chargers’ run defense is worse at home.
Pick: Colts 28, Chargers 27.
Play: Colts +1½.
BUCCANEERS at LIONS
Time: 6 p.m. Monday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Lions by 5½.
Total: 52½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bucs 5-1/4-2; Lions 4-2/4-2.
Outlook: The Bucs’ WR corps is so decimated, QB Baker Mayfield will have few passing options. Since 2022, coach Dan Campbell’s second season, the Lions are an NFL-best 20-11 ATS at home.
Pick: Lions 30, Bucs 13.
Play: Lions -5½.
Other plays
RAMS vs. JAGUARS
at Wembley Stadium, London
Time: 8:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL Network.
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 4-2/4-2; Jaguars 4-2/4-2.
Outlook: The Jaguars proved Sunday why they are the league’s Team Enigma. This isn’t a fair quarterback fight, as the Rams’ Matthew Stafford owns a seventh-ranked QB rating of 106.2, while the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence (81.9) is No. 29.
Pick: Rams 23, Jaguars 13.
Play: Rams -3.
SAINTS vs BEARS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Bears by 5½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 1-5/2-4; Bears 3-2/3-2.
Outlook: I won’t take the Bears and give points, not with their overall brutal, NFL-worst points-per-play (0.493) on defense, which only improves at home to 0.353, among the bottom dozen. No way that turnover luck continues.
Pick: Bears 19, Saints 17.
Play: Saints +5½.
RAIDERS at CHIEFS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Chiefs by 11½. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-4/2-4; Chiefs 3-3/3-3.
Outlook: Zero penalties at home Sunday. No picks, no fumbles and not a single penalty yard. The fortune that the Chiefs have experienced in recent seasons is beyond ridiculous. Lately, the Raiders have won or kept it close in K.C.
Pick: Chiefs 21, Raiders 17.
Play: Raiders +11½.
DOLPHINS at BROWNS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Browns by 2½. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 1-5/3-3; Browns 1-5/2-4.
Outlook: We failed miserably last week in missing that the Browns had won only twice in Pittsburgh since 1990. Apologies. At this point, the Browns might as well give rookie QB Shedeur Sanders a shot. A wrong-team-favored (WTF) spot.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Browns 13.
Play: Dolphins +2½.
EAGLES at VIKINGS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Eagles by 1½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 4-2/3-3; Vikings 3-2/3-2.
Outlook: Philly averages a league-low 5.7 points in road second halves. Is the return of sideline-mopey QB Jalen Hurts — everyone avoiding him a la two seasons ago — imminent? Math and computer models expose this as another WTF scenario.
Pick: Vikings 20, Eagles 13.
Play: Vikings +1½.
PANTHERS at JETS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Panthers by 1½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 3-3/4-2; Jets 0-6/3-3.
Outlook: Such ugliness. Since 2023, the Panthers are a woeful 2-18 on the highway. On Sunday in England, Jets QB Justin Fields completed nine passes for 45 yards, but his nine sacks (for 55 yards) gave him net passing yardage of minus-10.
Pick: Panthers 14, Jets 10.
Play: Panthers -1½.
GIANTS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-4/3-3; Broncos 4-2/2-4.
Outlook: Welcome to the NFL, Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart. Nik Bonitto (eight sacks, first) and Jonathan Cooper (4½, tied for eighth) are sack hounds. The Broncos are averaging 415 offensive yards at home, third in the league.
Pick: Broncos 23, Giants 17.
Play: Giants +7.
COMMANDERS at COWBOYS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Commanders by 2½. Total: 54½.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 3-3/3-3; Cowboys 2-3-1/3-3.
Outlook: The Cowboys yield 30.7 points a game; only two other defenses average more than 30 (Jets 30.5; Ravens 32.2). The Dallas “D” plays at its worst at home, too, giving up a mammoth 498 yards a game.
Pick: Commanders 30, Cowboys 27.
Play: Commanders -2½.
PACKERS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 6½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 3-1-1/2-3; Cardinals 2-4/3-3.
Outlook: Kyler Murray (foot) might miss a second consecutive game. On Sunday, reserve Jacoby Brissett (27-for-44, 320 yards, two TDs) became the first Cards QB to throw for 300 yards this season, but Arizona still lost its fourth in a row.
Pick: Packers 37, Cardinals 13.
Play: Packers -6½.
FALCONS at 49ERS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: 49ers by 2½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 3-2/3-2; 49ers 4-2/3-3.
Outlook: The Falcons have split their last six in the Bay Area. TE George Kittle might return. QB Brock Purdy might be back, too — just be cautious. He’s only 7-10 in his last 17 starts, including 2-6 in his last eight at home.
Pick: Falcons 17, Niners 16.
Play: Falcons +2½.
Byes: Bills, Ravens.