You know what we really don’t talk about often enough, friends?
The weather.
Yes, I know — heck of an exciting topic. It definitely beats re-examining my performance in Week 1, easily the most calamitous start in the history of this picks column.
But the weather — hot and steamy, like a North Carolina Fish Muddle stew — could be as significant a factor as there is in deciding the outcome of No. 11 Illinois (-3) at Duke (11 a.m., ESPN, 890-AM). It’s expected to be pushing 90 degrees at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C., which could make it more than a little rough on a team — particularly a defense — that’s unable to set the tone and pace.
“Can the heat play a factor in who’s able to stay on the field and to sustain drives and all that? I do think that will matter,” Duke coach Manny Diaz said at his weekly news conference. “I think it will also make depth an issue.”
This is the deepest Illinois’ roster has been in the Bret Bielema era, an asset to lean into. Offensively, the Illini (1-0) will rotate running backs Aidan Laughery, Kaden Feagin and Ca’Lil Valentine and ride the ground game as much as they successfully can. Defensively, they’ll throw all the bodies they can at Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah, who was one of the jewels of the offseason’s transfer class.
A major talent, Mensah is pass first, run second — but, as he demonstrated at Tulane, his scrambling can be lethal. Illini QB Luke Altmyer has some juice in his legs, too, though not the same speed Mensah possesses. And with Diaz well known to be among the most aggressive defensive coaches in the college game, Altmyer is sure to face heavy pressure. Remember the names of Duke defenders Wesley Williams and Anthony Vincent Jr., leaders of the pass rush. The Blue Devils (1-0) ranked third nationally in tackles for loss and sixth in sacks last season, when they reached the Gator Bowl with a shot at 10 wins.
When the fourth quarter rolls around and the game is tight, which it will be, each team will be confident. Duke was 6-1 in one-possession games last year, and Illinois was 5-1.
“It’s strength on strength,” Diaz said, “and we’ll see how it turns out.”
With a win, the Illini likely would lift themselves into the top 10. Bielema — ever sentimental — is enjoying this moment, which was clear during the week as he waxed on about sellouts in Champaign, fans wearing Illini gear with pride and alumni being able to “I-L-L …” passersby without a trace of self-consciousness.
A ranked Big Ten foe coming to town is a big deal in Durham, though Diaz pushed back at the idea it’s a showcase game for his team.
“We want it to be a showcase game because Duke is there, you know what I mean?” he said. “That we make it a big game just by our buses pulling up to the stadium.”
Just something to think about: Diaz was Penn State’s defensive coordinator in 2023, when Altmyer made his first Big Ten start against the Nittany Lions. He was harassed into four interceptions, without a touchdown pass. Different player now, and Duke isn’t Penn State. Again, just file it away.
Is it hot in here? Duke, 24-19.
OTHER WEEK 2 PICKS
All games are Saturday.
Iowa (+3½) at No. 16 Iowa State (11 a.m., Fox 32): The road team has won five straight games in this annual series. Go with the Hawkeyes, then? Also, Iowa has won six straight games on the road in Ames. Why would we even think of not going with the Hawkeyes? Give me the Cyclones, 21-20.
Oklahoma State (+28½) at No. 6 Oregon (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): The Cowboys’ QB1, Hauss Hejny, broke a foot early in the opener. Enter Zane Flores, who has a nice arm and good targets at whom to aim. The game isn’t winnable, but it’s don’t-get-embarrased-able. Ducks, 38-17.
My favorite favorite: No. 18 Oklahoma (-5½) vs. No. 15 Michigan (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): It’s not quite Ohio State-Texas big, but it’s close. What a tough assignment for Wolverines freshman QB Bryce Underwood in only his second college start. In the wide-open SEC, the Sooners have as good a chance to be there at the end as just about anybody.
My favorite underdog: Kansas (+6½) at Missouri (2:30 p.m., ESPN2): In the first Border War game since 2011 — a crying shame it has been so long — the Tigers will try to flex SEC dominance over a bunch of Big 12 weenies. It won’t work. The Jayhawks look a lot more like the nine-win team of 2023 than the five-win bummer of 2024. Rock Chalk in overtime.
Last week: 1-6 straight-up, 1-6 against the spread.
Season to date: 1-6, 1-6.