There’s nothing like the pressure that envelops college football coaches and teams on the final Saturday of November.
Wait, make that there used to be nothing like it. Because we’re in the first regular season that’s leading to an expanded, 12-team playoff, and the new format has changed the weekly calculus tremendously.
Missing the four-team playoff was bitterly disappointing for some teams, but rarely, if ever, was it regarded from the outside as a serious failure. But missing a 12-teamer if you’re, say, Ohio State? Beyond unacceptable. Colossal failure.
The biggest game on the first Saturday of November, No. 4 Ohio State (-3) at No. 3 Penn State (11 a.m., Fox 32), should be as exciting and fraught as anything we’ll see until conference championship weekend.
It’s already desperation time for the Buckeyes (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten), for whom a second loss would be as distressing as any of coach Ryan Day’s three consecutive defeats against mega-rival Michigan. If they lose to the Nittany Lions (7-0, 4-0), their chances of getting to the league title game in Indianapolis essentially will be shot. Instead, they’ll have to white-knuckle it the rest of the way with zero assurance the playoff committee will give them an at-large bid. Day comes into this one with a Big Ten record of 41-4 — the fourth ‘‘L’’ occurred two weeks ago at Oregon — but he’s one false move from having to answer nonstop questions about potentially being fired.
Odds to make the College Football Playoff heading into Week 10 👀 pic.twitter.com/w9rpmdxOiS
— The Next Round (@NextRoundLive) November 1, 2024
Ohio State didn’t blast $20 million into the NIL pit to miss college football’s postseason extravaganza. But win Saturday, and it still will be on the desired path.
‘‘We have our goals every year, and one of them is to get to Indianapolis, and this is it,’’ Day said. ‘‘It’s on the line. We’ve got to go put it on the line. We’ve got to win. This is it right here.’’
Day’s record against opponents ranked in the top five is a none-too-impressive 1-7, but he’s 5-0 against Penn State. No, he isn’t the only coach in this matchup who knows what it’s like to squirm in a chair at a packed postgame news conference. James Franklin is 1-9 — with seven consecutive losses — against the Buckeyes.
The last time the Nittany Lions won was in 2016, a 24-21 upset in Happy Valley that propelled them to the Big Ten title — their most recent one of those, too — and the Rose Bowl. That’s Penn State’s lone victory in the series since a game in 2011 that came 10 days after Joe Paterno was fired.
Michigan is down. Ohio State is vulnerable. There is no East division anymore, but this still feels like the opportunity to pounce that the Nittany Lions have been waiting for.
‘‘We recognize this is a big game,’’ Franklin said. ‘‘We’re focused on finding a way to get a ‘W’ this week.’’
It’s hard to find any real daylight between Day’s and Franklin’s teams. They’re defensive equals, each ranked among the top four nationally in yards allowed. The offenses are even closer together, separated by about eight yards per game. The Buckeyes probably wouldn’t trade running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson for Penn State’s Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but the Nittany Lions wouldn’t consider making the swap, either. Ohio State has great receivers, as always, but Penn State has the best and most versatile tight end in the land in Tyler Warren.
Will quarterback play decide it? Nittany Lions starter Drew Allar missed the second half of the victory last week at Wisconsin with an apparent knee injury. If he’s limited — or if Beau Pribula gets the nod instead — it’ll be hard to go throw-for-throw with the Buckeyes’ Will Howard, who has 17 touchdown passes and ranks second in the nation in efficiency.
One sneaky factor is the early game time. The less oiled-up the home fans are, the better for the visitors. Buckeyes, 24-20.
Other Week 10 picks
All games are Saturday.
Northwestern (+1) at Purdue (11 a.m., BTN, 720-AM): The Wildcats (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten) have laid back-to-back eggs since their best performance of the season in a lopsided victory at Maryland. The Boilermakers (1-6, 0-4) have held up their end of the bargain after I predicted before the season that they’d go 0-9 in conference play. Only because I’m bound by law to make a pick: ’Cats, 19-17.
No. 1 Oregon (-14½) at Michigan (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): Can the Wolverines (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) open rushing lanes for Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards on offense? Can they limit the Ducks’ yards after catch on defense? Doing both is the only way to stay in it against Oregon (8-0, 5-0). A close one . . . for a while, but the Ducks pull away and win by 14.
My favorite favorite: No. 2 Georgia (-14½) vs. Florida (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): It’s one of the greatest neutral-field rivalry scenes in the sport, of course, but the games haven’t been that competitive since Kirby Smart took the reins at Georgia. His only loss to the Gators was during the 2020 pandemic season, and only one of his six victories have come by fewer than 19 points. All Bulldogs.
My favorite underdog: No. 24 Illinois (+3) vs. Minnesota (11 a.m., FS1, 890-AM): The opening line was Illinois (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) by 2½ before early action swung things in favor of the Gophers (5-3, 3-2). But why? Was it because Minnesota has won three in a row, most recently a 48-23 blowout of Maryland? Because the Illini got smacked around 38-9 at No. 1 Oregon? Because the Illini might be without their top receiver, Pat Bryant? Whatever the explanation, I’m having a hard time seeing past coach Bret Bielema’s 10-0 career record against the Gophers. Make it 11.
Last week: 6-1 straight-up, 3-4 against the spread.
Season: 40-18, 28-29-1.