The Pac-12 dissolved in 2024, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are locked into the postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
The debate over the next version of the College Football Playoff is headed to overtime. And just as the on-field rules shift as the extra periods unfold, the event’s future format could change by the year.
CFP and ESPN executives agreed on Monday to extend the deadline for determining whether there will be changes to the playoff format for the 2026 season. Instead of Dec. 1, conference commissioners now have until Jan. 23 to resolve an issue that has lingered for years.
“While no change to the current format is definite,” CFP executive director Rich Clark said in a statement, “this extension will allow the management committee additional time to evaluate the second year of the expanded playoff and ensure any potential modifications are carefully considered, fully vetted, and in the best interests of student-athletes, schools, and fans.”
At this point, changes are highly unlikely for the 2026 season. But in 2027 and beyond, the CFP could expand to either 16 or 24 teams.
Yes, the power conferences are seriously considering doubling the size of the field just one year after it tripled (from four to 12). It’s the latest bad idea to emerge from a sport that dominates the market for misguided thinking.
Naturally, the Big Ten is the prime driver of the 24-team concept, which would allocate four automatic bids to each Power Four conference, assign two bids to the Group of Six (including the rebuilt Pac-12) and reserve six at-large berths.
The ACC and Big 12 rightfully pushed back on the Big Ten’s radical proposal for a 16-team field because it granted them two automatic bids and gave the Big Ten and SEC four.
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti learned his lesson and returned to the table with a format that treats all four power conferences equally. (Notably, his proposal has the support of Fox Sports CEO Eric Shanks, who sees the 24-team field as an opportunity for networks not named ESPN.)
Thankfully, the SEC opposes the 24-team field, which would undercut the value of the regular season — the sport doesn’t need 7-4 teams squaring off with a playoff bid at stake — and is steadfast in its preference for a 16-team model featuring 11 at-large berths.
Because the Big Ten and SEC control the playoff’s future format — they are merely required to consult with the ACC and Big 12 — the 34 member schools and their commissioners must agree to any changes.
Their disagreement over the shape of an expanded event for 2026 never reached Hatfield-and-McCoy levels of animosity, but the impasse necessitated an eight-week extension of the Dec. 1 deadline to notify ESPN of changes for next season. Whether the extra time produces a resolution is anyone’s guess.
But there’s clarity on one aspect of the postseason mess: The 24-team format cannot be implemented in time for the 2026 season because of the complex calendar changes required.
Topping that list: the likely elimination of conference championships, which are rapidly becoming obsolete with the 12-team CFP and would go the way of the dodo if the event doubles in size and adds an extra round of play in the first half of December.
But championship games are part of each conference’s media rights contract and print money, especially for the SEC. Sending them into the dust bin of history isn’t as simple as the Power Four commissioners reaching agreement about CFP expansion around a conference table.
The deadline extension to late January is significant, but only for the possible implementation of a 16-team field next fall. The move to 24, if it happens at all, would not come for at least two seasons.
For the moment, it appears the competing interests and unresolved disputes will benefit the sport for another year, with the 12-team CFP as the heavy favorite for the 2026 season.
To the projections …
College Football PlayoffTeam: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)Comment: If the Ducks (10-1) win Saturday in Seattle, they are in the CFP (and possibly in the Big Ten championship game, as well). If they lose, it gets tricky. With a 10-2 record, soft schedule and just one win over a ranked opponent, they might get shoved aside by the mass of two-loss SEC teams that will have more quality wins. The combination of an Oregon loss and a Michigan win (over Ohio State) would all but guarantee doom for the Ducks.
Alamo BowlTeam: USCComment: The Trojans (8-3) are a serious candidate for the Alamo Bowl if they defeat UCLA even though Utah could have one more overall victory. Their brand power and status as a first-time participant in San Antonio — plus coach Lincoln Riley’s Texas roots — make them extremely attractive.
Las Vegas BowlTeam: UtahComment: We aren’t counting on a victory at Kansas, not after the Utes (9-2) struggled to put away Kansas State. But it’s more likely than a loss and would put them in contention for the Alamo if USC flops against UCLA. There is a CFP scenario for the Utes, as well, but it requires BYU or Texas Tech losing as heavy favorites.
Holiday BowlTeam: WashingtonComment: In our forecast, the Holiday has the choice of selecting Washington (8-3) or either of the Arizona schools. The Huskies haven’t been to San Diego since 2010 — that’s crazy! — and might be seen as the best drawing card. If UW beats Oregon, the calculation changes, and the Huskies become a candidate for San Antonio or Las Vegas.
Sun BowlTeam: ArizonaComment: The Hotline currently projects the Wildcats (8-3) to win the Territorial Cup for their fifth consecutive victory and vault into the Top 25. In that scenario, how could the Sun Bowl resist extending an invitation? Arizona hasn’t been to El Paso in more than 30 years and is a mere five-hour drive away. Plus, Arizona doesn’t have a men’s basketball conflict with the New Year’s Eve bowl.
LA BowlTeam: Arizona StateComment: If the Sun Devils (8-3) beat Arizona, they could climb as high as the Las Vegas Bowl (if other results break right). But a loss to Arizona, combined with quarterback Sam Leavitt’s injury, might send them tumbling down the bowl ladder. The LA Bowl is the floor, in our view, considering the options available for event organizers.
ESPN bowlTeam: CalComment: The loss to Stanford ended both coach Justin Wilcox’s employment and any chance of the Bears (6-5) climbing into the Sun Bowl. We expect a loss to SMU, further undermining their attractiveness. Options in the pool of ESPN games would be the First Responders, Armed Forces and Gasparilla bowls. Or the Bears could fill a vacancy elsewhere.
ESPN bowlTeam: Washington StateComment: WSU is the lone Pac-12 legacy school with postseason eligibility hanging in the balance on the final Saturday. If the Cougars (5-6) beat Oregon State, they are bowling for the ninth time in the past 10 years (excluding 2020). Lose, and they’re home for the holidays.
Non-qualifierTeam: ColoradoComment: The surprise isn’t that the Buffaloes (3-8) failed to qualify for the postseason. It’s that their fate was so clear so early. The blowout home loss to Arizona on Nov. 1 signaled a brutal stretch run to come, leaving coach Deion Sanders to explain why he’s the right man to continue leading the program.
Non-qualifierTeam: Oregon StateComment: There’s plenty of intrigue in Corvallis unrelated to the postseason. Might the Beavers (2-9) offer their coaching job to Justin Wilcox, who became available Sunday evening after his dismissal in Berkeley? Wilcox grew up in Oregon and played for the Ducks but would have a stronger resume than many of the candidates under consideration.
Non-qualifierTeam: StanfordComment: We expect the Cardinal (4-7) to have a permanent coach in place within two or three weeks. For all the recent speculation on social media about Jim Mora Jr. as a potential candidate, he would be a terrible fit in every aspect save for his experience running a program. Stanford can’t afford to take a chance on someone who has never occupied the corner office.
Non-qualifierTeam: UCLAComment: Oregon spoiled UCLA’s chance to play spoiler by knocking USC out of playoff contention last weekend, so the stakes for the Crosstown Showdown are limited to bragging rights. Off the field, the Bruins (3-8) are making plenty of news with their coaching search and push to abandon the Rose Bowl for SoFi Stadium. We wish them well with the former endeavor, not the latter.
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