The Pac-12 dissolved in 2024, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are locked into the postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
The makeshift arrangement in which Pac-12 legacy schools remain tied to their previous bowl partners was supposed to expire after the 2025 postseason.
But you know what they say about best-laid plans: They crumble under the weight of college football dysfunction.
Every aspect of the sport’s postseason is on pause while the conference commissioners determine whether to expand the College Football Playoff in time for the 2026-27 season.
CFP expansion in any form — officials are mulling 16- and 24-team models — could have sweeping implications for the bowl system by altering the number of teams available (and when the games are played).
The commissioners have until Dec. 1 to inform ESPN, the exclusive broadcast partner, of changes to the size of the CFP, but the ongoing stalemate shows no signs of ending as the Big Ten pushes for a format based on automatic qualifiers and the ACC, Big 12 and SEC favor a model heavy on at-large bids.
Unless months of disagreement give way to a resolution over the next 13 days, there will be no changes to the CFP next season.
Which means the current bowl structure could be extended another year.
“The easiest thing to do would be to say, ‘Let’s just punt maybe for 12 months until we figure this out,” Steve Hogan, CEO of the Citrus and Pop-Tarts bowls, told The Athletic recently. “And I think that’s what I would expect is going to happen.”
If so, the Pac-12 legacy schools would remain tied to the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun and LA bowls for next season, and the schools set to join the rebuilt Pac-12 in July would remain affiliated with the bowls under contract with their current conferences.
(Boise State and San Diego State, for example, would participate in games currently tied to the Mountain West even though they will be competing in the new Pac-12.)
It would be confusing, sure, but maintaining the status quo would be far less complicated than attempting to reconstruct dozens of bowl arrangements across major college football for what might be a single season.
Because the CFP could expand in time for the 2027-28 season. In fact, that’s the most likely scenario.
At this point, get ready for teams currently spread across the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 to compete in legacy Pac-12 bowls and for new Pac-12 teams to participate in Mountain West and Sun Belt bowls.
Because college football.
To the bowl projections …
College Football PlayoffTeam: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)Comment: The Ducks (9-1) must win out in order to breathe easy on selection day, but that won’t be easy with USC and Washington looming. Lose once, and they are in a heap of trouble with so many two-loss SEC teams (and Notre Dame) in the pool of at-large candidates.
Alamo BowlTeam: UtahComment: The Utes (8-2) have no chance to leap into the CFP if they lose in the Big 12 title game, but we’re skeptical they can clear the threshold if they don’t reach Arlington: There isn’t enough schedule juice left to elevate their resume above a slew of one- and two-loss teams in the SEC.
Las Vegas BowlTeam: ArizonaComment: What gives with this highly optimistic forecast? Welp, the Hotline is currently projecting Arizona (7-3) to win out and jump ahead of ASU in the pecking order. Plus, Las Vegas won’t want USC (at 9-3 or 8-4) because of the Trojans’ appearance last year.
Holiday BowlTeam: USCComment: Not an ideal situation for the Holiday, but if Arizona is off the board, the Trojans (8-2) become the best option even though they participated two years ago (the Miller Moss game). Then again, USC could wind up in the CFP if everything breaks right.
Sun BowlTeam: Arizona StateComment: With a projected loss to Arizona and no Sam Leavitt (injury) or Jordyn Tyson (opt-out), the Sun Devils (7-3) would lose a chunk of their appeal. That said, they are always welcome in El Paso, especially after a six-year absence.
LA BowlTeam: WashingtonComment: From fringe CFP contender to the LA Bowl for the Huskies (7-3), all the result of the face plant at Wisconsin and a (projected) loss to Oregon in the finale. Heck, we would not be surprised by a loss at UCLA this weekend given their poor showing on the road the past two years.
ESPN bowlTeam: CalComment: The Bears (6-4) have room to climb with six wins in the bank and Stanford and SMU on the schedule. Win twice, and they could leap into the Holiday or Sun bowls. If they lose once — and certainly twice — then ESPN could send them to the Armed Forces, Gasparilla or First Responders bowls.
ESPN bowlTeam: Washington StateComment: The only thing worse for the Cougars (5-5) than missing the postseason would be missing the postseason because they were swept by Oregon State. That would be an all-time fail.
Non-qualifierTeam: ColoradoComment: If the Buffaloes (3-7) split their last two, against ASU (home) and Kansas State (road), which seems like the best-case scenario considering their performances of late, they would equal the win total from Deion Sanders’ first year. In our view, that’s a great leap backwards.
Non-qualifierTeam: Oregon StateComment: Given that bye weeks are typically the time for coaching changes, we wonder: Will the Beavers (2-9) use the opportunity to fire interim coach Robb Akey? (Just kidding.)
Non-qualifierTeam: StanfordComment: This feels like one of those seasons when Stanford (3-7) beats Cal because it has no business beating Cal.
Non-qualifierTeam: UCLAComment: If Virginia Tech can hire a coach of James Franklin’s stature, the Bruins (3-7) should be able to land someone who has thrived at multiple stops … right? Actually, don’t answer.
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