The Pac-12 dissolved in 2024, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are locked into the postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
Few games will impact the Pac-12 bowl lineup more than a hotly anticipated matchup Saturday morning that’s on the other side of the country and doesn’t involve any of the 12 legacy teams.
Notre Dame is visiting Pittsburgh in what amounts to the Power Four’s last stand against the Irish’s charge for an at-large berth in the College Football Playoff.
The outcome will resonate in Eugene, Los Angeles and Salt Lake City.
The CFP format carves out a spot for the Irish (7-2) if they finish in the top 12 of the final rankings, which will be released Dec. 7, the day after conference championships.
They were No. 10 in the initial edition last week and won’t drop below the threshold if they keep winning.
After facing the Panthers (7-2), the Irish host Syracuse (3-7) and visit Stanford (3-7).
If they lose Saturday — it would be their third defeat — the Irish are toast.
But if they don’t lose Saturday, they aren’t losing.
And if they don’t lose, one of the seven at-large spots is off the table for the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12.
That spot could be immensely valuable to one of the three Pac-12 legacy teams alive in the playoff chase:
— If Oregon (8-1) loses again, it could fall onto the CFP bubble.
(The Ducks should be safe, but unexpected results elsewhere could prove problematic, especially if their resume is devoid of wins over ranked opponents.)
— If USC (7-2) wins out, the Trojans would become a candidate for one of the final spots.
(Because of their head-to-head loss in South Bend, the two-loss Trojans wouldn’t take a CFP bid away from the two-loss Irish.)
— If Utah (7-2) wins out but doesn’t reach the Big 12 championship, the Utes would be under consideration for an at-large berth.
(The Utes would receive an automatic bid to the CFP if they win the Big 12 title and be eliminated if they lose in Arlington.)
In each instance, the prospects for inclusion improve markedly if the Irish are removed from consideration and seven spots are available.
Their CFP carve-out consumes 14 percent of the at-large pool. It’s a sweet deal for the Irish and bad math for everyone else. Pittsburgh is the last realistic opportunity to improve the calculus.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: Thanks to kicker Atticus Sappington’s stellar evening in brutal conditions, the Ducks (8-1) have some margin for error: They can lose once, but not twice, and still feel confident about the CFP.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: The Hotline expects the Utes (7-2) to win out, miss the Big 12 championship game and emerge as the Alamo Bowl’s first pick regardless of USC’s availability. Why? Because Utah fans will gobble up tickets for Kyle Whittingham’s final game.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: The Hotline’s supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations to determine the likelihood of ASU (6-3) winning the Big 12 and reaching the playoff. In the first 9,999 instances, the result was: “LOL.” But the 10,000th produced a “Check back in two weeks” response. So we’re saying there’s a chance!
Holiday Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: With Iowa at home, a trip to Eugene and the anything-goes finale with UCLA, the Trojans (7-2) have the narrowest of paths into the CFP. Lose once, and they could land in the Alamo. We think they lose twice.
Sun Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: Bowl officials hold a special place in their hearts for teams that exceed expectations and possess energized fans. With one more victory, the Wildcats (6-4) will become a coveted commodity.
LA Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: We are currently forecasting the Huskies (6-3) to handle Purdue, lose at UCLA — because they are awful on the road — and drop the finale to Oregon to spark a significant bowl slide, which is related to the draft slide, only more inconspicuous.
ESPN bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: Cal is on pace to experience the Cal-iest of Cal seasons under Justin Wilcox that Cal (6-4) can possibly produce. Losing by 34 at unranked San Diego State as a 14-point favorite and winning at No. 19 Louisville in overtime as an 18-point underdog? Perfection.
ESPN bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: If the Cougars (4-6) lose to Louisiana Tech, they will be listed as a non-qualifier next week. We don’t see them winning at James Madison. No way, no how.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: Not that the Hotline necessarily expected Deion Sanders’ third team to be his worst team in Boulder, but it makes sense given who’s no longer in uniform for the Buffaloes (3-7).
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: Every fan who witnessed the Beavers (2-8) lose to Sam Houston should receive a full refund on his/her ticket, plus the cost of parking and gas to and from Reser Stadium.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: Good chance Notre Dame strides into the friendly confines of Stanford Stadium on the final Saturday with a CFP berth at stake and the sport rooting for the Cardinal (3-7). The Irish have won their past three visits by an average of 28.3 points.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: We were told joining the Big Ten would solve attendance issues for UCLA (3-6) because of all the Midwest transplants who live in Southern California.
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