The first day of the second phase of the Pac-12’s expansion process did not unfold smoothly or ideally for a conference that aimed high and wide.
The Pac-12 intended on Monday to add three schools from the American Athletic Conference, Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.
But wary of changing conferences based on revenue projections from the Pac-12, and not on revenue guarantees, the trio instead decided to remain in the AAC.
That forced the Pac-12 to narrow its scope and turn its focus to schools, including at least one that doesn’t play football, in the Pacific and Mountain Time Zones.
The key number: eight.
With six universities previously committed for the 2026-27 competition year — Washington State, Oregon State and the four Mountain West schools that made the jump two weeks ago (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State) — the conference began the week needing at least two more to comply with NCAA rules.
What will Day 2 bring? Here’s a look at the key issues:
— Utah State will be the seventh member of the revamped conference.
The Aggies agreed to membership terms on Monday, according to multiple sources — and that decision could have momentous consequences, which we’ll address below.
However, neither the school nor the Pac-12 had uttered a public peep about the decision as of late Monday night. An official announcement could come Tuesday.
— Despite reports Monday that UNLV had pledged its allegiance to the Mountain West, the school remains in play for the Pac-12 and is under heavy pressure to make the jump, according to sources.
What changed? Utah State’s decision to join the Pac-12 left the Mountain West below the number required by both the NCAA and conference’s own media rights agreement for the 2026-27 school year.
UNLV officials were expected to mull their options overnight, but there is no timetable for a decision.
— Air Force’s commitment to remain in the Mountain West is also in question because of Utah State’s move, which effectively untethered every school from the conference by dropping the membership total below the threshold.
Could the Pac-12 pursue the Falcons even though it already has Colorado State to provide a presence along the Front Range of the Rockies?
Or might Air Force look to the American, where Army and Navy are members in football?
— A news report by the Action Network that Gonzaga had agreed to join the Pac-12 was premature, according to multiple sources, with one noting the key financial details had not been worked out.
But the two sides are discussing membership — the talks are beyond the exploratory phase — with an agreement potentially coming this week that would super-charge the Pac-12’s basketball brand.
Because Gonzaga does not play football, a deal would leave the Pac-12 one school short of the eight-member NCAA requirement.
If the Zags make the jump, the West Coast Conference would be without its flagship school.
— The final component of what could be a wild Tuesday is well known in the realignment game: The unknown.
The Pac-12 is pursuing a plethora of options to bolster its football and basketball brands. While some scenarios have played out in public, there could be a mystery move unfolding in private.
Until contracts are signed, anything is possible.
Related Articles
College Football Playoff projections: The Washington State-Boise State duel has far-reaching consequences
Best of the West: Brigham Young soars, WSU holds and Arizona slips (despite being idle)
Saturday Night Five: Realignment reality, Utah’s statement, Colorado’s escape and WSU stays perfect
Mailbag: On the massive Pac-12 expansion penalties, AAC options, the Mountain West’s future and more
Pac-12 recruiting: How expansion could impact Washington State and Oregon State
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline