Well past midterm and a year before his reelection campaign begins in earnest, Mayor Brandon Johnson has a 26% approval rating with a majority of Chicagoans unhappy with his job performance — no matter where they live, what race they are and how much money they earn.
The good news for the first-term mayor is that he had nowhere to go but up since polling earlier this year showed him languishing in single digits.
The bad news is that, even with those recent strides, he remains deeply “under water,” according to survey results from the Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation and NORC at the University of Chicago, and well below the 50% benchmark widely viewed as the minimum for incumbents seeking reelection.
Former Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s approval rating was stuck in the 40s when he chose political retirement over the uphill battle for a third term after the furor that followed the court-ordered release of a video of now-convicted former Chicago police officer Jason Van Dyke shooting and killing 17-year-old Laquan McDonald in 2014.
Emanuel’s successor, Lori Lightfoot, had a public approval rating in the 20s when she became the first elected, incumbent Chicago mayor in 40 years not to be reelected.
Even more troubling for Johnson is the racial breakdown of the new survey of 1,111 Chicagoans ages 18 and older conducted June 23 through July 9 for the Mansueto Institute.
The rookie mayor’s worst showing is a 20% approval rating among white voters. But only 38% of African Americans approve of the mayor’s performance. That’s the base of voters Johnson is counting on to help return him to the fifth floor of City Hall.
Johnson has a 28% approval rating among Hispanics, Chicago’s fastest-growing and second-largest racial or ethnic group. And the mayor’s worst showing, 69% disapproval, is among voters identifying as Asian-Pacific Islander.
Yet another warning sign is the fact that a majority of voters surveyed in every age group disapproved of Johnson’s performance as mayor of Chicago.
Johnson rose from single-digit obscurity to the fifth floor of City Hall by sweeping Chicago’s 20 majority-Black wards, and by making a strong showing among lakefront progressives, in part by exciting young voters struggling to get jobs and pay rent, buy homes, get married and raise children.
Now, only 22% of voters surveyed between ages 18 and 29 approve of the job Johnson is doing. Johnson’s worst approval rating — just 19% — is among Chicagoans 60 and older who are traditionally most likely to vote, even in low-turnout elections.
That’s followed by 32% for voters between ages 30 and 44; 28% of those between 45 and 59; and 32% among voters surveyed between ages 30 and 44.
The new poll also gauged Chicagoan sentiments on the job Gov. JB Pritzker is doing. Now campaigning for a third term without ruling out a 2028 run for president, Pritzker’s overall approval rating is 64%. He is viewed favorably by all age groups, races, income and geographic groups.
Johnson laser-focused on affordability
Like Zohran Mamdani, the odds-on favorite to become the next mayor of New York City, Johnson has been laser-focused on the issue of affordability while pushing to tax the rich and make businesses and wealthy Chicagoans “pay their fair share.”
It’s somewhat surprising, then, that 53% of those earning less than $30,000 a year disapprove of Johnson’s performance.
Less surprising is that Johnson’s highest disapproval rating — 67% — is among Chicagoans earning $100,000 or more. That’s followed by 61% for those earning $60,000 to $100,000, and 50% for those in the $30,000 to $60,000 bracket.
Johnson’s road to political redemption runs through the African American community. That’s why he’s been making frequent stops at African American churches and become a regular on Black radio.
But there’s a lot more work to do, according to the survey.
Only 26% of Johnson’s West Side neighbors approve of his performance, while 30% of South Siders approve.
No matter where they live, Chicago voters are disenchanted with the mayor. His approval ratings are just 22% in North Central and Northwest Side neighborhoods, and 29% on the Southwest Side.
Survey results differ from mayor’s polling
Senior mayoral adviser Jason Lee, who helped quarterback Johnson’s out-of-nowhere campaign, said the new numbers do not match the mayor’s internal polling.
“Those were the same numbers that I used to win the last election. So I’m going to trust the numbers that we have over any external numbers,” Lee said, refusing to share those internal polling numbers.
Lee said the good news for Johnson is that there is one issue that has dominated all others in the Chicago elections he’s been a part of since he moved here from Texas to become a community and campaign organizer: public safety.
“We’re putting together the best public safety record in a generation. …against all naysayers who doubted that his agenda could produce a more safe Chicago. But he has,” Lee said, pointing to double-digit declines in homicides, shootings and other violent crime.
“Not only is Chicago becoming more safe, it’s becoming more affordable,” Lee added. “He’s got the best affordable housing record in recent memory too. Those are the two issues that dominate — public safety above all — and this mayor is going to have a better record on those issues than anyone in recent memory and certainly anyone who would run in the race.”
Lee acknowledged that the Johnson administration got off to a rough start because of a “generational” migrant crisis that left the mayor — a former middle school teacher turned paid organizer for the Chicago Teachers Union — to fend for himself without much help or expertise.
“We dealt with a generational crisis with little support, little resources and no blueprint. This is what we faced on Day One and we survived — not just the administration, but the city… That’s in the rear-view mirror. We’re through that. We’re stronger. And on the issues that really matter to people, we’re going to have the best records in years, and certainly a better record than anybody who would get in the race.”
Veteran Democratic strategist Peter Giangreco was sanguine about the new numbers. During a comparable time in her single term, Lightfoot had a 48% approval rating.
“She didn’t come close to making the runoff and her numbers were twice as good as Brandon Johnson’s are right now,” said Giangreco, who advised unsuccessful mayoral challengers Susana Mendoza in 2019 and now former Ald. Sophia King (4th) in 2023. “It’s a deep hole and it doesn’t look like one that he’s going to to be able to climb out of.”
Johnson’s fundamental problem is that, “You never have a second chance to make a first impression,” Giangreco said.
“Chicago voters start out — like with any new mayor — hoping that they’re successful. And Brandon Johnson just, at every turn, seemed to leave the impressions on voters — North Side, South Side, West Side, [it] didn’t matter — that he just wasn’t up to the job. That’s nearly impossible to change,” Giangreco said.
“He ought to do the hard things that need to get done for the city and let the chips fall where they may. That’s going to start with this year’s budget. The worst thing he can do is pile up more debt and kick the can down the road because it’s not going to help him win re-election, and it’ll just dig the city in deeper than it already is.”
Veteran political strategist Delmarie Cobb said she doesn’t need a poll to tell her that Johnson faces an uphill climb in the African-American community.
‘Engine light is on’
“I know that by being Black and being out here and talking to people. I hear what people are saying,” Cobb said. Cobb said the fundamental message of the new poll and the feedback she’s getting is, “Warning, warning, warning.”
“The engine light is on. But you still have an opportunity as an incumbent to repair your reputation and the perception of you. That’s the power of incumbency, and it’s whether he does it or not. I’m not counting him out. I’m counting him down,” Cobb said.
“If he let’s everybody else do it for him and define him, then he’s going to be in even worse trouble. He’s going to have to define himself and he’s going to have to spend all of this time doing that. He needs to spend these next months before the campaign officially begins as if he’s already in an official campaign.”
Cobb said she’s not hearing the same anger in the Black community that she did when Rahm Emanuel closed 50 schools and waited until a court order to release the Laquan McDonald shooting video. What she’s hearing is “disappointment” with a mayor perceived as “lackluster.”
“One of his biggest mistakes early on was — and this is what all politicians do, unfortunately — is they win and somehow think you have a mandate,” Cobb said. “You don’t have a mandate. You just barely won. You should be running the whole four years. And for a part of his term in the early days, he was coasting on his victory and not understanding that all of that is transient. People are happy to see you for a minute. But, it’s not going to last.”