California needs to close more state prisons. Reviewing Newsom’s May Revision makes that impossible to ignore.
The May Revision, Newsom’s annual revised budget proposal, gives the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) about $1 billion more than last year’s enacted budget, even as California’s prison population continues its long-term decline. From January to the May Revision, total proposed State Funds spending increased by $477.5 million on net. The broader Corrections and Rehabilitation agency total accounted for $460.8 million of that net increase — about 96.5% — after increases and decreases across all state agencies were added together. And yet, California’s prison population has fallen by roughly 70,000 people since 2010. The state’s sprawling carceral footprint — over 25,000 acres of state land — might be shrinking. The budget is not.
CDCR’s savings record should alarm lawmakers. The 2024 Budget Act set a $392 million annual savings target for the department. CDCR delivered less than half. The state then authorized up to $20 million for Boston Consulting Group to identify operational savings across CDCR and other departments. CDCR’s share was initially estimated at $644 million by 2028-29. In March, state budget analysts suggested that the Legislature should view unallocated savings proposals skeptically, citing repeated examples where assumed savings from these exercises had proven difficult or unachievable, and in some cases had obscured the true size of the deficit. By the May Revision, its identified BCG-related ongoing savings had fallen to $116 million, an 82% collapse.
This is the pattern the Legislature should reject: CDCR promises savings, the savings shrink, and the department’s budget keeps growing.
Coalitions like Californians United for a Responsible Budget (CURB) have already pushed the state to use prison closure as a cost-saving strategy. Last year, Newsom signed AB 137, legislation designed to move closed prison properties toward permanent repurposing and prevent them from becoming immigration detention sites. But implementation has been slow, and delay has a price tag. CDCR spent $90 million during Deuel Vocational Institution’s first year after deactivation and, years later, continues to spend roughly $20 million annually to maintain it as an empty facility. Every year California waits, empty prisons keep generating bills.
Prison closure has proven to be the most effective tool for reducing CDCR spending at scale. That is why the Legislature must demand it. The state’s four completed and planned closures are projected to save $594 million General Fund annually by 2027-28; the May Revision credits closures and deactivations with $4.9 billion in cumulative savings through the same period.
During his budget press conference, Newsom suggested he has addressed the state’s structural budget deficit. A structural deficit is not just whether the budget balances on paper for one year. It means the state’s ongoing revenues are not enough to cover its ongoing costs. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) gave the administration some credit for reducing future deficits, but ultimately disagrees: LAO warns that structural deficits persist, and that the May Revision relies on roughly $20 billion in reserve withdrawals and suspended deposits, plus $4 billion in borrowing, to balance the budget. Prison closure is exactly the kind of recurring expenditure reduction California should prioritize. It lowers the state’s ongoing cost base year after year, instead of relying on slick accounting maneuvers that push costs into the future.
Some argue California should focus less on prison closure and more on crime prevention. But those are not competing goals. Incarceration is extraordinarily expensive: the LAO puts California’s average annual prison cost at about $127,800 per person, including more than $41,000 for health care alone. Diversion, treatment, and community-based intervention can produce strong outcomes without relying on prison beds; RAND’s evaluation of Los Angeles County’s Rapid Diversion Program found that about 91% of graduates had no new case filed after graduation.
Recent crime trends do not justify preserving excess prison capacity. The Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research organization, reports that violent crime fell 5.3% in 2024 and property crime fell 9.9%, reaching its lowest level since 1985. None of this means California has met its public safety goals. However, the state must stop treating unused prison space as a crime-prevention strategy. Paying for prison capacity the state no longer needs does not prevent harm. Funding the things that actually stabilize communities will. Those programs lose out when closure savings are absorbed back into CDCR.
A state serious about reducing crime would not preserve thousands of empty prison beds while underfunding vital systems that support prevention. It would close excess capacity and redirect the savings into job programs, youth support, voluntary treatment, housing, reentry, and survivor services.
The Legislature should require at least one additional prison closure in the June enacted budget, and ensure those cost savings are captured to fund the priorities that actually protect all Californians. That includes adopting a serious plan for prison closure that ensures safe transfers for incarcerated people and support for repurposing plans that reflect the needs of local communities. The LAO has identified a potential closure candidate: the Correctional Training Facility (CTF) in Soledad. Shuttering CTF could save approximately $150 million annually and avoid more than $379 million in infrastructure repair costs.
CDCR keeps missing its savings targets, and the state keeps increasing its budget anyway. California cannot keep spending more to run a smaller prison system and call that a responsible budget.
Brian Kaneda is the deputy director of Californians United for a Responsible Budget.